Posted on 02/02/2006 11:19:32 AM PST by RockinRight
His shifting campaign strategy offers few clues
Forget high-definition television. More eye-catching (at least for political junkies) is watching the high-definition candidate in this year's race for governor. That, like it or not, is Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell. And that is not good news for the other well-known Republican in the race, Attorney General Jim Petro.
The leading candidate for the Democratic nomination, U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland of Lisbon, remains a blank slate for most voters.
This week, the Petro campaign attempted (yet again) to define itself. But messages were mixed. Blackwell does not have this problem. In one recent interview, he said that if Roe v. Wade were repealed, he would sign a law in Ohio that made all abortions illegal. That is as unambiguous as it gets.
Petro chose a new running mate to replace Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich, a conservative who bailed out to run for re-election. State Sen. Joy Padgett of Coshocton was brought on board. She is from Strickland's base, and sponsored Ohio's concealed carry law. A nice move, since Democrats hope Strickland's pro-gun stand will appeal to union voters.
After Petro's announcement, Ohioans for Concealed Carry promptly endorsed Blackwell.
Padgett was also a clever pick because she is fairly moderate. But she strongly opposed gay marriage in her 2004 campaign, some immediately noted. Petro was against Blackwell's Issue 1 on the 2004 ballot, which banned gay marriage. As usual, Blackwell is one step ahead. He has since has gone on to say homosexuality is a lifestyle that can be changed. Fund-raising results released this week showed Petro with more campaign cash on hand than Blackwell ($2 million to $1.5 million). Score one for Petro. But in the past six months, Blackwell raised $1.5 million to Petro's $900,000.
The Petro campaign really got tripped up in interpreting results from a statewide poll conducted by the Ohio Republican Party. The results for a small sub-sample were misreported (the party blamed the pollster), and Petro jumped on them to show that he was in what appeared to be a dead-heat with Strickland among informed voters, while Blackwell trailed Strickland by 24 points.
In terms of definition, that's exactly where Petro wanted to be. Ignoring (for the time being) results that showed him trailing Blackwell by 10 percentage points (40 percent to 30 percent) among Republican primary voters, Petro jumped on the theme that he was the better (read ``more moderate'') candidate to take on Strickland in the general election.
Actually, the sub-sample showed both candidates trailing Strickland, but the sample size was so small, about 100 people, that analysis was virtually meaningless. Among all voters (a sample of about 800), Strickland got 39 percent to 33 percent for Blackwell and 36 percent for Petro. Advantage, Petro, but by just 3 percentage points.
The Petro campaign then switched gears, saying its own party's poll was stacked (perhaps even deliberately) with questions that biased results toward Blackwell when Republican voters were finally asked to choose between Blackwell and Petro.
The Petro camp released its own quickie poll showing the primary a dead heat. A demand was issued that the Ohio Republican Party retract its own polling. (Or maybe just the parts of it Petro didn't like.)
The party didn't back down, and reminded that both candidates had agreed with the choice of a pollster, McLaughlin & Associates.
Meanwhile, the week included accusations by Akron attorney Jack Morrison, pal of Summit County Republican Party Chairman Alex Arshinkoff, new campaign co-chairman for Blackwell, that Petro had put the muscle on him for campaign contributions in return for legal work.
All of this revealed the weakness at the core of Petro's candidacy. He could have been himself, positioned to take advantage of the opening created once Auditor Betty Montgomery dropped out of the governor's race, by presenting himself as a moderate, if sometimes wonkish, alternative to the firebrand Blackwell, and thus better able to win in the general election.
The trouble is, the Petro identity has become so blurred that it's hard to figure out who he is or where he is going. Last year, the campaign spent more than $1.5 million on television ads that veered to the religious right, stressing marriage and family values. Wags began to refer to Petro as ``Blackwell Lite.'' Petro ginned up a ballot initiative to control state spending, competing with Blackwell's TEL initiative.
The ads may have worked to squeeze Montgomery out of the race, but they make it impossible for Petro to suddenly steer back to the center without further fuzzying his identity. The chance to capture Montgomery's supporters and win the primary is probably slipping away.
Blackwell, who would be the first black governor of Ohio, appears to be looking ahead to an entirely different strategy for November. He will stick to his ideological guns (given his strong stands, what else can he do?), keep the Republican base fired up and then work for black votes based on appeals to wedge issues such as school choice, abortion and gays. That would define a campaign the likes of which Ohio has never seen before.
After Petro's announcement, Ohioans for Concealed Carry promptly endorsed Blackwell.
LOL!! Didn't work too well for Petro, did it?
Blackwell Ping!
I am Proud to be a Blackwell volunteer!
Glad to hear it! Right now, I can't volunteer, but I hope to soon.
This guy makes it sound like Petro's all but a goner. Which is fine by me!
I am so ready to have a real conservative in the Governor's mansion right now, I can taste it! Taft has been an embarrassment, and Petro will, no doubt, be more of the same.
Petro just shot himself in the foot!! He needed to distance himself from Taft.
Strickland picked Lee Fisher as his running mate. (Fisher lost to Taft last time.) Two two time state wide election loosers.
I never want to miss an opportunity.
I cannot see Strickland getting very far with the losing Fisher as his Lt. Gov. Only but the truest of Dems would vote for him.
No, he won't, cuz he's gonna lose, and Blackwell's gonna win.
:-)
:-) Methinks you're right!!
Wouldn't that be great!
Petro offers you his protection.
Me too. I predict Petro comes close, but Blackwell still beats him. Then, Blackwell beats Strickland by a solid 4-6 points.
Protection from what? Conservatism?
Pastors & Christian Leaders Dinner –Thurs Mar. 2nd, 2006---evening event
Location: Christ's Community Church, Portsmouth, Ohio
Time: 6:30-8:30 pm
Speakers: Ken Blackwell, Bob McEwen, Pastor Russell Johnson
Celebration Patriotic Multi-Media Presentation
Reservations Required: For more info go to www.ohiorestorationproject.com.
Sounds great! Wish I could be there, but it's unlikely. Portsmouth's a 5 hour drive for me.
Thanks for the info.
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