Posted on 02/01/2006 6:43:55 AM PST by robowombat
Volume 3, Issue 4 (January 31, 2006)
The Significance of Bin Laden's New Audio Statement
By Michael Scheuer
On January 19, 2006, al-Jazeera Television broadcast a new statement by al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden. The statement was bin Laden's first since October 31, 2004. The U.S. government announced that the voice on the tape almost certainly is that of bin Laden (Bloomberg, January 20, 2006). Al-Jazeera speculates that the tape was recorded in December 2005 (al-Jazeera, January 20, 2006). As always, bin Laden was calm and dispassionate, reminding the American people and the West that the mujahideen cannot be deterred, saying, "He who swims in the ocean does not fear the rain … you won't be able to prevent us from dying in dignity." Bin Laden gave a clear indication that preparations for more al-Qaeda attacks in the U.S. are complete [1].
Assessing the War
The content of the statement is familiar and fascinating. With what has been described as his familiar low, reedy voice, bin Laden promises that the worldwide, al-Qaeda-led Sunni insurgency will continue. He argues that in the current marquee theaters of the insurgency—Iraq and Afghanistan—"our [the Islamists'] situation is getting better and better, and your [America's] situation is the opposite." Rejecting U.S. claims of progress in Iraq, bin Laden said "that the war in Iraq is bubbling up without end … [and] Iraq has become a point of attraction [for would-be Muslim insurgents] and [the] restorer of [our] energies." In Afghanistan, bin Laden explained, "the operations … are continuing in our favor, all praise be to Allah." In the statement, bin Laden also makes a selective use of domestic U.S. polls to claim Americans oppose the war in Iraq and that "the wise among you know that Bush does not have a plan to reach his alleged victory in Iraq."
Speaking to Americans
After offering this positive assessment of the al-Qaeda-led insurgency, bin Laden moves to the two-part heart of his message. He provides another warning to Americans that they will be attacked inside the United States if U.S. policies in the Islamic world remain unchanged, and, for the first time, he offers a truce. Implicitly referring to his October 31, 2004 speech, which he said was a final warning to Americans, bin Laden said, "I was not intending to speak [again] about this subject. … What motivated me to speak out is [sic] the repeated fallacies made up by your president Bush..."
Bin Laden then specifically focused on the Bush Administration's oft-repeated argument that the U.S. must fight al-Qaeda in Iraq and Afghanistan to prevent bin Laden's fighters from entering the United States to conduct attacks. "The results of your polls show that an overwhelming majority of you want the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq," bin Laden said, "but he [Bush] has opposed this wish and said that withdrawing troops sends the wrong message to opponents, that 'it is better to fight them [Muslims] on their land than their fighting us [Americans] on our land.'" Americans know that this is a false assertion, bin Laden argued, but its falsity is "the one thing that went over his [President Bush's] head…" Also, "at the heart of polls calling for withdrawing the troops," bin Laden claimed, is the belief of Americans that "It is better that we [Americans] don't fight Muslims on their lands, and they don't fight us on ours."
Speaking past the Bush Administration to the American people, bin Laden agrees with the poll results he cited and says that it would be best for Muslims and Americans not to fight each other. In this context, he offers Americans "a long-term truce on fair conditions that we adhere to." In making such an offer, bin Laden followed the ancient and recent traditions of Islamic history, as well as his own practice. Bin Laden offered the truce because he believed a cease-fire, rather than war, is temporarily in the immediate interests of Muslims. A truce should be declared, bin Laden explained, "So both sides can enjoy security and stability under this truce so we [Muslims] can build Iraq and Afghanistan which have been destroyed by war." In making the proposal, bin Laden followed a model set by the Prophet Mohammad during his struggle to establish the Islamic religion, by Saladin during his years of war with the Christian crusaders and by the Afghan insurgents during their decade-long war against the Soviet Union.
Bin Laden also mirrored his own past behavior. In 2004, he offered a cease-fire to the European countries so al-Qaeda and its allies could concentrate on the war against the United States. The Europeans somewhat contemptuously refused bin Laden's offer and afterward al-Qaeda staged attacks in London. In all of these cases, the offers were not made as proposals for a permanent peace. According to bin Laden, there can be no permanent peace with infidels, only truces or cease-fires for time periods that benefit Muslims and prepare them to resume fighting.
Al-Qaeda Prepares for Another Round
For the United States, the most prudent conclusion to draw from bin Laden's new statement is that al-Qaeda has fully completed preparations for more attacks in the United States. Bin Laden chose to speak at this time because he wanted to clearly tell Americans that al-Qaeda can attack in the U.S. whether or not it is engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq. That he intended the warning to be clear for Americans to understand is shown by the fact that the statement contained even fewer quotations from the Quran and the Hadith than did the statement of October 31, 2004, which, until then, was the sparest of all bin Laden's speeches in terms of such quotations. Adding to the alarming nature of this warning was bin Laden's pointed reminder that the "mujahideen, all praise be to Allah, have managed repeatedly to penetrate all security measures adopted by the unjust allied countries. The proof of this is the explosions you have seen in the capitals [Madrid and London] of the European nations who are in this aggressive coalition [in Iraq]."
That he intended the warning to be clear for Americans to understand is shown by the fact that the statement contained even fewer quotations from the Quran and the Hadith than did the statement of October 31, 2004, which, until then, was the sparest of all bin Laden's speeches in terms of such quotations. Adding to the alarming nature of this warning was bin Laden's pointed reminder that the "mujahideen, all praise be to Allah, have managed repeatedly to penetrate all security measures adopted by the unjust allied countries. The proof of this is the explosions you have seen in the capitals [Madrid and London] of the European nations who are in this aggressive coalition [in Iraq]."
Bin Laden's message also was meant to resonate positively across the Islamic world, and it is likely to do so. Bin Laden's claim that "If you [Americans] are sincere in your desire for peace and security, we have answered you," will be seen by Muslims, according to the editors of Pakistan's Daily Times, as consonant with "the classical Islamic tradition of warfare … [in which Muslims] offer a truce to an adversary before an armed conflict. This was meant to give the adversary a chance to avoid a conflict" (Daily Times, January 21, 2006). Not only is the warning to Americans keeping with the Prophet's injunction that the enemy be warned before being attacked, but it is also in keeping with bin Laden's three-plus year effort to make sure the Muslim world is aware that he has gone the extra mile to avoid having to stage additional attacks in the United States.
Perhaps Pakistan's Daily Times has given Americans the most concise bottom-line for bin Laden's statement: "Al-Qaeda seems to be preparing for another round."
Notes
1. Sheikh Osama bin Laden: "There is No Shame in This Solution [Statement of January 19, 2006]," http://www.jihadunspun.com, January 20, 2006. All subsequent quotes, unless otherwise marked, originate from this source.
FYI
Something BIG was on the agenda.
Ya know,I was thinking yesterday,I miss those days.Not the terrorist attack itself and certainly not the loss the life,but it was weird.Everyone was nice to each other.At the stores,in traffic,on the street,everyone realized that our petty differences meant nothing.Even in other countries where they were saying "We're all Americans today".Unfortunately,it was short lived and we're back to worrying about Social Security issues,illegal immigrants,wiretapping,etc.,,IMHO,those were good days that were unfortunately brought about by disaster.
Planning for the Spring offensive would be my simply guess.
By the way, this guy's analysis may be tinged with some agenda. He's the former CIA guy who has been very critical of the administration's WOT. Left the CIA in 2004, if you know what I mean . . .
Not saying he's wrong on everything, but I read his stuff knowing that he has some axes to grind.
I saw who wrote it...he does seem to have an agenda.
This kind of jumped out at me:
"Bin Laden's message also was meant to resonate positively across the Islamic world, and it is likely to do so."
In a sense this is like saying that GWB's SOTU address was meant to resonate positively with Republicans throughout the country, and it is likely to do so . . . But on the other hand, I remember seeing quotes from some Muslims that were critical, one of them saying something like why should we listen to 7th century ideas coming from someone living in a cave.
No doubt many Muslims became ecstatic when they heard this tape, but how many reacted the opposite.
Damdola scared the s--t out of them.
But not all of it. Zawahiri was spewing more of it the other day.
Just as the UAE is looking to a time when oil has stopped flowing, so should the rest of the Arab world. Take away the oil and the whole ME (every Arab State in that region put together) has the GDP of Denmark. In other words, nothing. On the world stage the ME would go from swagger to homelessness ... and it would happen with the same great speed that money flowed into the region 40 years ago...
Osama might mean what he says, but the West is powerful. Vietnam was a cultural loss, not a military loss. He knows and doesn't know that... In some ways Osama "gets" this culture - in other ways he misses the obvious. But this I know, if Osama is looking for a fight, he'll get the fight of his life. We will hunt down and kill every one of them - if it takes the next 50 years. And both sides will be hurt. And Osama will drag that region of the world down with him. For millions of tomorrows. And the West, being stronger, will come back. The ME will die. There must be a better way.
This is so sad.
I can only hope that the US and the western coalition would be a stalwart as you believe in prosecuting the war without a name against the OBL group.
At some point, it will come down to a "war of ideas" and on that score, we've got the win. How do I know? Because no one is desperately trying to become a citizen of any ME country. No one's fighting to become a citizen - even if they're paid well. In our country people come here knowing the first few years they could be poor ... but they know there's hope. Hope for a better life and freedom. Freedom to live and freedom not to have to fear. The ME is a "chip on the sholder/control freak / exaggerated honor" type of culture. It's not a happy place unless you're the chief thug. Secret police and midnight knocks on the door are part of the ugly reality of that type of culture.
It's a hard sell. Even those who love that region of the world, don't want to go back there. You must know that... And there are lots of citizens of the ME who would jump at the chance to move to the US. And millions who already have. So, at some point, the ME way will be rejected. And the goons who run the place will be rejected, and the good people will choose to live free and without fear. You laugh, but if you're not a goon in the ME, you want out. It's only a question of time.
Take away the oil and the whole ME (every Arab State in that region put together) has the GDP of Denmark.Uhm, try Botswana, or someplace else, not Denmark:
GDP Saudi Arabia: $281.2 billion (2005 est.)Per capita, Denmark is double Saudi Arabia. Oh, and S.A. is running 10% unemployment (males -- add womins and it's, what, 60%?)
GDP Denmark $254.1 billion (2005 est.)
Good point - and without the oil?
Ahh, BS - This dirtbag and his fellow leadership ilk (within Stan/Pak) are doing all they can to merely ekk out their last days of survival in the Pak border regions -
They've been reduced to controlling nothing and living off merely the sympathy of other hate filled mountain scum. Or worse yet having to buy their safety from mountain trash to house them.
The reality is al Qeade has been decimated and UBL never in his wildest dreams imagined what has happened in the last 4 years.
That does not mean the GWOT is over (or even close) there is still much fighting to be done (and it will be done). But UBL himself has been reduced to the coward he is... living among Pakistani mountain trash.
Time was on his side in the short run (to hide) but his days are coming to an end. He won't survive 06 -
I believe he will stage a series of Breslan like attacks on the most innocent and vulnerable. This could easily be done.
The Assassins did not survive the Mongels who also stacked a pyramid of 25,000 skulls outside of Baghdad.
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