Posted on 01/29/2006 6:36:34 AM PST by madprof98
War Fatigue, Ethics Concerns Impact Approval Rating
Jan. 29, 2006 — - A weakened George W. Bush faces the nation in his 5th State of the Union address beset by war fatigue, persistent discontent on the economy and other domestic issues, ethics concerns and rising interest in Democratic alternatives in this midterm election year.
Bush's bottom-line job rating -- 42 percent of Americans approve of his work, 56 percent disapprove -- is the worst for a president entering his sixth year in office since Watergate hammered Richard Nixon. And Bush's is not a single-issue problem: More than half disapprove of his work in eight out of nine areas tested in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, from Iraq to immigration to health care.
Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.
Some views look better for Bush. Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the country's safer now than it was before Sept. 11, 2001, in many ways the fundamental demand of his presidency. Fifty-three percent still believe the war in Iraq has improved long-term U.S. security, its most basic rationale. And the president has won himself some daylight on the issue of warrantless wiretaps; 56 percent now call them justified.
But his challenges are many. Bush's overall approval rating has failed to sustain a slight gain last month from his career lows last fall -- it's 10 points lower than a year ago, on the eve of his second inauguration.
Start of Sixth-Year Approval Ratings
Job Approval Rating
President:
Bush 42%
Clinton: 60%
Reagan 65%
Nixon 26%
Eisenhower 58%
Truman 45%
On Iraq, 55 percent say the war was not worth fighting and 60 percent disapprove of how Bush is handling it. On the deficit, 64 percent disapprove of his work; on health care 60 percent; on immigration 57 percent; on ethics 56 percent (see separate Jan. 27 analysis on ethics). Six in 10 say the economy's hurting. Six in 10 don't think Bush understands their problems. Fifty-three percent don't see him as honest and trustworthy.
OPPOSITION -- Bush's problems clearly benefit the opposition: Americans -- by a 16-point margin, 51 to 35 percent -- now say the country should go in the direction in which the Democrats want to lead, rather than follow Bush. That's a 10-point drop for the president from a year ago, and the Democrats' first head-to-head majority of his presidency.
The Republican Party is feeling the pinch as well. The Democrats lead them by 14 points, 51 to 37 percent, in trust to handle the nation's main problems, the first Democratic majority on this question since 1992. And the Democrats hold a 16-point lead in 2006 congressional election preferences, 54 to 38 percent among registered voters, their best since 1984.
Independents -- quintessential swing voters -- prefer the Democrats' direction over Bush's by 51 to 27 percent, and favor the Democrat over the Republican in congressional races by 54 to 31 percent (the latter result is among independents who're registered to vote.).
Whether this shifts many seats in the elections 10 months off is far from assured. Not only are the powers of incumbency immense, there's also no broad anti-incumbency sentiment in the country; indeed 64 percent approve of their own representative's work.
Still, some underlying shifts may give the Republicans pause, perhaps less for 2006 than for 2008 (admittedly a political lifetime away). The Democrats have narrowed the gap as the party with stronger leaders, now trailing by six points versus 16 points last fall. They lead by 16 points as the party with "better ideas." And they've held or improved their advantage over the Republicans in public trust to handle issues as disparate as the economy (now an 18-point Democratic lead), Iraq and lobbying reform.
Handling the nation's response to terrorism is still the Republicans' best issue -- both Bush's and his party's -- albeit by far less of a margin than in the past: Fifty-two percent now approve of Bush's work on terrorism (pale compared with his career-average 68 percent) and the Republicans hold a scant five-point lead over the Democrats in trust to handle it (down from a peak 36-point lead three years ago).
Even with these weaker assessments, dealing with terrorism remains the wellspring of the president's support (and it's clearly the issue that got him re-elected). When he addresses the nation Tuesday night -- and when his party goes to the people in November -- it's certain to be central to their message.
ISSUES -- It helps Bush and his party that terrorism continues to be one of the top items on the public's agenda; 59 percent say it should be one of the highest priorities for Bush and Congress, putting it alongside the situation in Iraq, cited by 60 percent. There are vast partisan differences in those two top issue choices: Seventy-nine percent of Republicans call terrorism a "highest priority" issue; that falls to about half of independents and Democrats alike (53 and 49 percent, respectively). And 70 percent of Republicans call Iraq top priority, compared with 51 percent of Democrats.
Rated the Highest Priority
All Dems. Ind. Repub.
Iraq 60% 51% 63% 70%
Terrorism 59% 49% 53% 79%
Health care 53% 58% 57% 43
Economy 52% 54% 54% 44%
Education 47% 53% 47% 38%
Less govt. spending 43% 41% 48% 41%
Social Security 41% 50% 41% 31%
Budget deficit 38% 42% 40% 32%
Disaster Prep. 36% 41% 35% 30%
Rx for elderly 32% 39% 34% 18%
Immigration 27% 22% 27% 34%
Taxes 27% 32% 28% 19%
Global Warming 26% 36% 30% 10%
Lobbying Reform 16% 17% 18% 13%
Democrats, by contrast, are much more likely than Republicans to give top-priority mention to domestic issues such as social security, education, health care and prescription drug benefits. Lobbying reform, it's worth noting, comes out last on the list. That doesn't mean it's unimportant, just not a "highest" priority, probably because people are less apt to see it as impacting them directly.
IRAQ -- In one notable change, approval of Bush's performance on Iraq has dropped back after a short-lived gain following the recent elections there. His approval rating went from 36 percent before the mid-December elections to 46 percent immediately afterward; now it's back down to 39 percent. The change came mainly among Republicans; their approval of Bush's handling of Iraq is down 11 points in this poll.
NSA -- A better result for Bush, noted above, is the apparent lack of traction for critics of the warrantless NSA wiretaps. A clear majority now says such wiretaps are acceptable, 56 percent, compared with 43 percent who call them unacceptable. That compares with a closer 51 to 47 percent split earlier this month.
In what may be a related result, there's also been an advance, albeit just to 50 percent, in the number of Americans who express confidence in the government's ability to prevent future terrorist attacks. This confidence is far higher among Republicans (71 percent) than it is among either independents or Democrats (45 and 40 percent, respectively.)
Still, the change on NSA wiretaps came equally among Republicans and independents; both now are eight points more likely to call such wiretaps acceptable. It's a small gain for Bush and his party -- but one of the few they have cause to celebrate.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 23-26, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Penn.
President Bush Job Approval 49%
Sunday January 29, 2006--Forty-nine percent (49%) of American adults approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove.
The President earns approval from 81% of Republicans, 23% of Democrats, and 40% of those not affiliated with either major political party.
RasmussenReports.com
Looks pretty good to me!
Yes, agree as to all you write!
However, in agreement, this brings to mind here the impact of the 'anti war'/"peace" movement people like Sheehan and such who are, in fact, eager for a non-military capabiity of and by the U.S. and how many liberal types fall victim to being influenced by that as if it was a rosey, rainbow solution to the world's woes (and our own).
Point being that the terrorist attacks of 09/11 shocked many Americans into recognizing that although we/they may not relish a degree of military capability by the U.S., that there are many others in our world today who are ruthless and insane, even, and seek our destruction. Many Americans during Clinton's terms were lulled into some stupified sense of prosperity that they lost sight of the rest of the world's aggression and what threat it poses to us and to others.
Thus, also lulled into thinking that the money necessary to maintain a capable military was superfluous.
I also believe that's what enables people like Sheehan and the rest...they claim some higher purpose of "peace" and yet congratulate and encourage those who wish us harm for wishing us harm. Thus, the propoganda method of the "peace" movement...to effect a weak and doubtful America, to encourage our enemies to increase their aggression upon us and allies.
The film, "Munich," comes to mind here.
Or a 90-10 split would be more accurate! Add 10-15% to those numbers to find the actuals. Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters
The only polls I worry about open in 9 months. Who gives a damn what the President's day-to-day rating is almost a year before the election? It's not like he is up for re-election tomorrow (or at all).
At the end of the day, people gotta go into a booth and flip a lever for the (D) or the (R). The Donks have proven themselves to be completely non-serious, which is a fatal flaw in such serious times.
It is one thing to gripe about the President. It is an altogether different thing to elect some Democrat moron.
read my tagline please
They live in the economy the MSM tells them they live in.
Here is a question in the current Zogby poll:
Which event has had a more significant impact on the U.S.? The 9/11 terror attacks or Hurricane Katrina?
9/11-type attack
Hurricane Katrina
Neither
Not sure
| Why do you believe the 9/11 terror attacks were more important in their repercussions for the U.S.? |
|
| Highlighted threat from terror groups | |
| Highlighted weaknesses in domestic intelligence capabilities | |
| Highlighted weaknesses in defense capabilities | |
| Led to more muscular foreign policy | |
| Resulted in Iraq war | |
| Expanded government powers | |
| Eroded civil liberties | |
| Revealed that U.S. has new, dangerous enemies abroad | |
| Other | |
| Not sure | |
|
and this:
|
|
| Which event do you believe will be considered more important 30 years from now? The 9/11 terror attacks or Hurricane Katrina? |
|
| 9/11terror attacks | |
| Hurricane Katrina | |
| Neither | |
| Not sure | |
And somehow that's different from a CBS/New York Times poll??
On Fox News this morning a guest was saying the GOP pollsters have the President in a range between 42% and 52%. I guess a lot of where he falls in a poll depends on who is polled. I doubt that a sampling that is heavy on voters who did not vote for Bush would drive up his numbers. The MSM would have us believe their polls are accurate when they are not. Any more I laugh at any of the polls and the interpretations of them.
Doesn't the press remember that for bj, they had to run two polls, one for job approval, one for bj approval? His real numbers were so bad that this was the only technique they could use to show him in a reasonably good light. They never used this double poll technique before or since the stain on the blue dress finally stole his last piece of Whitehouse silverware.
His poll numbers will skyrocket after the SOTU speech. You traitors can take it to the bank.
Blame the lackluster, indifferent, uninspiring sham campaign GH Bush ran at the behest of the NWO. Perot was a NWO puppet as well.
The fix was in --Bubba was the real NWO selection...
The tax issue sounds good, but not serious enough for Bush to have lost. He ran a sham campaign by ANYONE who's ever seen a real campaign. The reticent and kid-glove Dole was another sham candidate and NWO puppet who didn't have a prayer -- DESPITE Bubba's many issues he could have easily hammered him on.
A less resolved America, more liberal America, weaker defense, a "balanced" SC, and moral relativism mean a weakened American sovereignty -- a prerequisite for a a stronger NWO.
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