Just how is President Bush weakened? Is he running for a third term?
Oh ... I forgot. When the Democrats take back the House and Senate this year, they are going to impeach him.
Yeah ... I forgot all about that one.
Posted on 01/29/2006 6:36:34 AM PST by madprof98
War Fatigue, Ethics Concerns Impact Approval Rating
Jan. 29, 2006 — - A weakened George W. Bush faces the nation in his 5th State of the Union address beset by war fatigue, persistent discontent on the economy and other domestic issues, ethics concerns and rising interest in Democratic alternatives in this midterm election year.
Bush's bottom-line job rating -- 42 percent of Americans approve of his work, 56 percent disapprove -- is the worst for a president entering his sixth year in office since Watergate hammered Richard Nixon. And Bush's is not a single-issue problem: More than half disapprove of his work in eight out of nine areas tested in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, from Iraq to immigration to health care.
Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.
Some views look better for Bush. Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the country's safer now than it was before Sept. 11, 2001, in many ways the fundamental demand of his presidency. Fifty-three percent still believe the war in Iraq has improved long-term U.S. security, its most basic rationale. And the president has won himself some daylight on the issue of warrantless wiretaps; 56 percent now call them justified.
But his challenges are many. Bush's overall approval rating has failed to sustain a slight gain last month from his career lows last fall -- it's 10 points lower than a year ago, on the eve of his second inauguration.
Start of Sixth-Year Approval Ratings
Job Approval Rating
President:
Bush 42%
Clinton: 60%
Reagan 65%
Nixon 26%
Eisenhower 58%
Truman 45%
On Iraq, 55 percent say the war was not worth fighting and 60 percent disapprove of how Bush is handling it. On the deficit, 64 percent disapprove of his work; on health care 60 percent; on immigration 57 percent; on ethics 56 percent (see separate Jan. 27 analysis on ethics). Six in 10 say the economy's hurting. Six in 10 don't think Bush understands their problems. Fifty-three percent don't see him as honest and trustworthy.
OPPOSITION -- Bush's problems clearly benefit the opposition: Americans -- by a 16-point margin, 51 to 35 percent -- now say the country should go in the direction in which the Democrats want to lead, rather than follow Bush. That's a 10-point drop for the president from a year ago, and the Democrats' first head-to-head majority of his presidency.
The Republican Party is feeling the pinch as well. The Democrats lead them by 14 points, 51 to 37 percent, in trust to handle the nation's main problems, the first Democratic majority on this question since 1992. And the Democrats hold a 16-point lead in 2006 congressional election preferences, 54 to 38 percent among registered voters, their best since 1984.
Independents -- quintessential swing voters -- prefer the Democrats' direction over Bush's by 51 to 27 percent, and favor the Democrat over the Republican in congressional races by 54 to 31 percent (the latter result is among independents who're registered to vote.).
Whether this shifts many seats in the elections 10 months off is far from assured. Not only are the powers of incumbency immense, there's also no broad anti-incumbency sentiment in the country; indeed 64 percent approve of their own representative's work.
Still, some underlying shifts may give the Republicans pause, perhaps less for 2006 than for 2008 (admittedly a political lifetime away). The Democrats have narrowed the gap as the party with stronger leaders, now trailing by six points versus 16 points last fall. They lead by 16 points as the party with "better ideas." And they've held or improved their advantage over the Republicans in public trust to handle issues as disparate as the economy (now an 18-point Democratic lead), Iraq and lobbying reform.
Handling the nation's response to terrorism is still the Republicans' best issue -- both Bush's and his party's -- albeit by far less of a margin than in the past: Fifty-two percent now approve of Bush's work on terrorism (pale compared with his career-average 68 percent) and the Republicans hold a scant five-point lead over the Democrats in trust to handle it (down from a peak 36-point lead three years ago).
Even with these weaker assessments, dealing with terrorism remains the wellspring of the president's support (and it's clearly the issue that got him re-elected). When he addresses the nation Tuesday night -- and when his party goes to the people in November -- it's certain to be central to their message.
ISSUES -- It helps Bush and his party that terrorism continues to be one of the top items on the public's agenda; 59 percent say it should be one of the highest priorities for Bush and Congress, putting it alongside the situation in Iraq, cited by 60 percent. There are vast partisan differences in those two top issue choices: Seventy-nine percent of Republicans call terrorism a "highest priority" issue; that falls to about half of independents and Democrats alike (53 and 49 percent, respectively). And 70 percent of Republicans call Iraq top priority, compared with 51 percent of Democrats.
Rated the Highest Priority
All Dems. Ind. Repub.
Iraq 60% 51% 63% 70%
Terrorism 59% 49% 53% 79%
Health care 53% 58% 57% 43
Economy 52% 54% 54% 44%
Education 47% 53% 47% 38%
Less govt. spending 43% 41% 48% 41%
Social Security 41% 50% 41% 31%
Budget deficit 38% 42% 40% 32%
Disaster Prep. 36% 41% 35% 30%
Rx for elderly 32% 39% 34% 18%
Immigration 27% 22% 27% 34%
Taxes 27% 32% 28% 19%
Global Warming 26% 36% 30% 10%
Lobbying Reform 16% 17% 18% 13%
Democrats, by contrast, are much more likely than Republicans to give top-priority mention to domestic issues such as social security, education, health care and prescription drug benefits. Lobbying reform, it's worth noting, comes out last on the list. That doesn't mean it's unimportant, just not a "highest" priority, probably because people are less apt to see it as impacting them directly.
IRAQ -- In one notable change, approval of Bush's performance on Iraq has dropped back after a short-lived gain following the recent elections there. His approval rating went from 36 percent before the mid-December elections to 46 percent immediately afterward; now it's back down to 39 percent. The change came mainly among Republicans; their approval of Bush's handling of Iraq is down 11 points in this poll.
NSA -- A better result for Bush, noted above, is the apparent lack of traction for critics of the warrantless NSA wiretaps. A clear majority now says such wiretaps are acceptable, 56 percent, compared with 43 percent who call them unacceptable. That compares with a closer 51 to 47 percent split earlier this month.
In what may be a related result, there's also been an advance, albeit just to 50 percent, in the number of Americans who express confidence in the government's ability to prevent future terrorist attacks. This confidence is far higher among Republicans (71 percent) than it is among either independents or Democrats (45 and 40 percent, respectively.)
Still, the change on NSA wiretaps came equally among Republicans and independents; both now are eight points more likely to call such wiretaps acceptable. It's a small gain for Bush and his party -- but one of the few they have cause to celebrate.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 23-26, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Penn.
Another phony poll by ABC.
And, IMHO, fully 90% of those polled couldn't tell you WHAT the deficit is and HOW it affects people.
Pity for the Dems and their leftist Agenda that 450-500 of these 1000 poll respondents will not bother to vote.
How convenient for them to poll before speech. FYI, Rasmussen has him at 49%. If you follow polls, of course.
Yawn. Let's see where Bush stands in about a week or so after the Alito confirmation. He was just at 50% only a couple weeks back. They just can't STAND IT.
I guess Bush will have to concede in 08.
/sarc!!!! LOL
Rasmussen had Bush at 48%.
An ABC poll aint fit to wipe your arse with..
Bush is hardly weakened...he will get Alito...Iraq just had successful elections...the economy is doing great by all reasonable standards.
Best of all, the dems are imploding before our eyes and ruining any chances they might have had in 06.
And on a personal level...the past 6 years of my life have been an endless barrel of fun....if that is Bush's fault then may he be President ad infinitum...
I don't think President Bush cares anymore about those ratings than I do. He is a leader not a figurehead. I feel he has a bigger enemy to fight that are the Whacko Rats than the Terrorists are. He's getting the job done inspite of the Rats that are undermining everything he is working at. He is protecting America from the Terrorists and the ENEMY WITHIN, which are the RATS.
Polling samples please. I would like to see the breakdown of Dems vs Reps, likely voters vs registered etc. I'm sure those #s will tell how skewed this poll is.
The President's ratings are not weak in my house! Quite the opposite. Anyone who would prefer the Dems should just move to "Palestine" and get it over with.
Just how is President Bush weakened? Is he running for a third term?
Oh ... I forgot. When the Democrats take back the House and Senate this year, they are going to impeach him.
Yeah ... I forgot all about that one.
There was one released a few days ago that had him at 48. These polls are worthless.
Yet amazingly, he seems totally unconcerned about re-election. Go figure!
Yet amazingly, he seems totally unconcerned about re-election. Go figure!
And Clinton was "popular" and accomplished nothing!
Besides, a finger stuck up in the air to feel the wind may well get shot off. ;)
Point of intrest. Justice Stevens was born in April 1920. He is 85. GW Bush is President until Jan 2009.
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