Posted on 01/27/2006 5:23:10 PM PST by LouAvul
DAVOS, Switzerland (FORTUNE) - Be afraid. Be very afraid.
That's the message from two of the world's most successful investors on the topic of high oil prices. One of them, Hermitage Capital's Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel.
The other, billionaire investor George Soros, wouldn't make any specific predictions about prices. But as a legendary commodities player, it's worth paying heed to the words of the man who once took on the Bank of England -- and won. "I'm very worried about the supply-demand balance, which is very tight," Soros says.
"U.S. power and influence has declined precipitously because of Iraq and the war on terror and that creates an incentive for anyone who wants to make trouble to go ahead and make it." As an example, Soros pointed to the regime in Iran, which is heading towards a confrontation with the West over its nuclear power program and doesn't show any signs of compromising. "Iran is on a collision course and I have a difficulty seeing how such a collision can be avoided," he says.
Another emboldened troublemaker is Russian president Vladimir Putin, Soros said, citing Putin's recent decision to briefly shut the supply of natural gas to Ukraine. The only bit of optimism Soros could offer was that the next 12 months would be most dangerous in terms of any price shocks, because beginning in 2007 he predicts new oil supplies will come online.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
Calculated domestic production and consumption, with and without ANWR:
http://energy.senate.gov/legislation/energybill/charts/chart8.pdf
BTW I found another source that listed the top ten countries in terms of reserves. That number came to circa 900 billion barrels, but included about 175 billion barrels of Canadian tar sands in the total. There are another 45 nations with at least some reserves but those are mostly small numbers. This leaves us a long way from 3 billion and takes the OPEC numbers at face value.
I've been saving my rubber bands.
That's why peak oil was so feared. It implies armageddon.
George Soros needs to take a walk to the end of the Santa Monica Pier and wait for the mothership. His wealth has taken his mind to Heaven's Gate territory.
bttt
That is cheap. We'll see when I go look at it. The fall back deal is about $100/cord, cut to length but unsplit. It sounds like I've found a couple of guys who are getting on in years who either used to burn wood, or are looking to clear some land. There's also a guy up near Hartford who has several properties with felled trees that you could cut up and haul away for free. Unfortunately my chainsaw is like a toy and I don't have a splitter.
The going rate around here is $175 to $200 per cord delivered. Even at that rate, it's economical for me since a cord offsets 100 to 150 gallons of oil.
Nice mule. We sold off all of our horses 15 years ago when we moved to Virginia. Now that we are home again and the price of gas is so outrageous we are seriously thinking of getting another horse and buggy. It will be an all day trip to get to a store as the closest for large grocery buying is 23 miles away.
Brilliant; for those of us that know what a battery is!
Right, Perhaps I should have said a bucket!
The filthy demonrats dont want ANWR drilled,,, But the republicans have been running the government for the last 6 yrs and they persist in OBEYING the wishes of the filthy demomrats on not drilling in ANWR...
Someone whos a died in the wool republican party-man wanna tell us why??
A much better offset would be to buy options on oil furtures.
How much do you pay for heating oil? What has been the range this year? Do you have a labor rate for your time? Pick something. Any other costs? Depreciation on the stove? Maintenance?
65% of those polled are dopes. You have to look at the marginal impact on prices. Plus that slide is devoid of critical info. You cannot show a usage slide with volume and time as the only two dimentions, you also have to calculate PRICE. At every price point that chart changes and the change is not linear
There is a supply denand CURVE, not a supply denand LINE.
Please people read thomas sowell. .
Pre-conditioning; common topic in the money market.
That's assuming that the only supplies are the ones that are supplying now (less Iran and/or some other trouble spots). For that kind of bucks you will see even dead cats and dogs being processed into crude.
That is not true. The world proved reserves of petroleum has continued to increase. In addition to meeting the increasing demand, the reserves continue to grow with new discoveries and improved technologies.
In 1985 the reserves stood at 700 billion barrels, today they are at 1293 billion barrels. This is a 85% increase in reserves while also supplying the demand. There has been a 28% increase in the last decade.
But look at the magnitude of that gap - reduce demand by 50% and it still swamps issues of domestic production, for example IMO in any sort of business case analysis anyone in their right mind would quickly disguard domestic production as a significant input into their decision making.
Something else, and a big something else, is going to have to change - or change us.
No, that is not how it works. Facilities do not typically buy fuel from somewhere else unless they are in the middle of an industrial area. On the Alaskan North Slope, at the Alberta Tar Sands, on platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and oil fields in the Middle East, natural gas and diesel from small topping plants are used to provide heat and run generators.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.