[Canadian] Tories lead by 10, but lots of regional fights

With voting day on Monday, stagnant national poll numbers mask some interesting movement among voters in parts of B.C., Ontario and Quebec, says a new poll.

The latest poll by the Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail again finds a 10-point gap nationally between the Conservatives and Liberals (percentage point change from a Jan. 17-19 poll in brackets):

* Conservatives: 37 per cent (-1)
* Liberals: 27 per cent (-1)
* NDP: 18 per cent (+1)
* Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (unchanged)
* Greens: 6 per cent (-1)

For the question of a majority or minority government, "this leaves the Conservatives short," Tim Woolstencroft of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca on Saturday, adding the Tories would have to be in the 42 per cent range or higher to be able to win enough seats to form a majority.

In Canada excluding Quebec, the Conservatives have a 42-31 lead over the Liberals.

The Conservatives in Quebec have fallen seven points from their post-holiday high of 31 per cent (percentage point change from a Jan. 14-16 poll in brackets):

* Bloc Quebecois: 47 per cent (unchanged)
* Conservatives: 24 per cent (-7)
* Liberals: 11 per cent (+4)
* NDP: 8 per cent (+1)
* Greens: 7 per cent (+4)

The Conservatives lost seven points in Montreal, where they now have 16 per cent support, compared to 18 per cent for the Liberals and 47 per cent for the Bloc.

Outside Montreal, the Bloc's lead over the Tories has widened to 16 points -- 47-31. In the Jan. 14-16 poll, the gap was down to five points -- 43-38.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe has been strongly attacking the Tories in recent days. On Saturday, the Bloc ran newspaper ads warning Quebecers against placing their faith in a party controlled in Calgary.

Woolstencroft said it's hard to estimate how many seats the Quebec Tories' current support will generate because they don't have the "ground forces" to get their vote out in tight races.

He did suspect that unless the Bloc's support level jumps substantially, Duceppe won't reach his goal of more than 50 per cent support for his party at the polls.

"Separatist party support tends to be overestimated by two or three points in polls," because the Bloc has a great deal of support among very young francophones, but they tend not to vote, Woolstencroft said.

In Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are again tied (percentage point change from a Jan. 17-19 poll in brackets):

* Liberals: 37 per cent (-3)
* Conservatives: 37 per cent (+4)
* NDP: 21 per cent (-1)
* Greens: 6 per cent (-1)

The Greater Toronto area remains largely immune to Conservative momentum, although Woolstencroft said the party should make gains in the '905' suburbs. While the Liberals have dropped from a high of 50 per cent support earlier this week to 45 per cent in this poll, the Tories remain mired at 30 per cent. However, in the same period, the NDP has moved from 16 per cent to 20 per cent support.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper started his campaign day on Saturday working a Toronto phone bank. Liberal Leader Paul Martin also campaigned in the GTA and southwest Ontario on Saturday before flying to Winnipeg.

In British Columbia, Conservative support has subsided somewhat while the NDP has moved into second place (percentage point change from a Jan. 14-16 poll in brackets):

* Conservatives: 36 per cent (-8)
* NDP: 31 per cent (+5)
* Liberals: 28 per cent (+2)
* Greens: 5 per cent (+1)

Woolstencroft said NDP Leader Jack Layton has been campaigning in B.C. for the last few days, and that tends to push a party's poll numbers up.

Both Martin and Harper will be campaigning in B.C. on Sunday, while Layton finishes off in Toronto.

The Tories remain overwhelmingly dominant in the Prairies, with about twice the support of the NDP and Liberals combined.

Technical information

Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.

Interviews were conducted on January 18th, 19th and 21th. Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three day period.

Here are sample sizes and the margin of error:

* Canada: 2,000; 2.2
* Quebec: 494, 4.4
* Montreal: 238, 6.4
* Rest of Quebec: 256 , 6.1
* Rest of Canada: 1,506; 2.5
* Ontario: 758, 3.6
* GTA (416 and 905): 326, 5.4
* Outside GTA: 432, 4.7
* Prairies: 328, 5.4
* B.C.: 266, 6.0

Q. If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?

Q. In that case, which party's candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?

To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.

Tha would be an interesting comparison. I think you are right about the young voter thing too.

CTV had also pulled a poll today. Strange. The media has really turned around on Harper, It's so blatantly obvious, but debates on local TV go well for the conservatives regardless.
I think he will pull out a majority , he has the momentum, while the Liberals are just screwing up and doing stupid things, like one candidate telling a Canadian WW2 veteran that if he didn't like a Liberal Canada, he could move to the USA. That was somewhere in Ontario. Of course, the media won't say a damn thing. Disgusting.

Another thing is stewing on the back burner in western Canada. The Western Separtist Party will be an official Party as of Feb 6/06. If Caadians don't give Harper a majority, his government probably won't last very long. The Western Separtists will be ready to go next time around, and will probably do quite well too.
This is prropably the last chance Eastern Canada has to do the right thing, otherwise it's mostly likely the beginning of the end for Canada as it is today. It actually makes good sense for Western Canada to separate.

This old post is being continuously updated to reflect the current election situation:

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The Canadian Blogs have led the way investigating, exposing, talking about, and keeping before the public the "scandal a day" nature of Canada's corrupt, incestuous, nepotistic ruling class.

You really need to read all of it to see how bad 13 years of "liberal" government can be.
Billions of dollars missing... censorship... gang warfare ( but you can't mention that... see "censorship..." ) and corruption, cronyism, and kickbacks that would shame a Mafiosa...

Read it all, get sick, get mad- and if you are Canadian, go vote.

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It depends on how well the Conservatives do in Quebec and the 905 area. If all the cards fall the right way Monday, a majority is not out of the question. The Liberals are running scared and for all of Martin's boasts of a comeback, the fact of the matter is in 2004, on the last weekend of the campaign before the election, the Liberals were leading by three points. In 2006, on the last weekend of the campaign before the election, they are behind by 10 points. Its too big a lead to close within a day. And I don't need a poll to tell me who's going to win; just look at where the major party leaders are winding up their campaigns.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

More like a Blue Wave. The Liberals have run on fear like the Democrats did here in the States in 2002 and 2004 and they're gonna get creamed. They're not offering any proposals to make life better for the average Canadian. Martin and his band of thugs are living in deep denial.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

The Bloc will never agree to ally itself with the Liberals. And there are hard feelings between the Grits and the Dippers, over the fact the Liberals have been poaching the Hard Left to prop up their shrinking vote share. The Liberals are not going to lead the Government again and its not even certain they will be the Official Opposition in the next Parliament.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

I think the Liberal Party as a "centrist" party concept is over (they are practically centre-left by every measurable standards, but they still brand the party itself as centrist). We will probably see a consolidation of Canada's political scene into one major centre-right party and one major centre-left party. The Grits will either go the way of New Zealand's United Future under Peter Dunne - an insignificant socially conservative but principleless party that enjoys about 4% support, or it will absorb most of the New Democrats in the post-Martin restructuring and morph into something like the Labour Party of New Zealand in ideology - rebranding itself as a clearly social democratic or centre-left political party.

This leaves the Quebecois Bloc as the separatist party, and probably the emergence of a purely leftist party that windowdresses itself with "environmental concerns" - a bit like the Green Party of the United States or New Zealand.

It all depends on what Canada's political structure looks like in the next 10 years. It will be a lot different from the centralized federation of MacDonald's day. Parliament will be a lot weaker and the provinces will be even stronger. The main action won't be in a House Of Commons but in an elected Senate. The West is going to be as important a player nationally as Quebec was in the last century. Monday is a whole new era in Canada. It may be overkill to describe it as the beginning of the end of the Liberals but it looks that way. A party confined to a few urban strongholds is not a party that can credibly speak for the entire country.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

Well, let me start with the national numbers, since they are the easiest to find:

	Actual 2004	Last SES 2004	Last SES	Last Ipsos 2004	Last Ipsos	Last Ekos 2004	Last Ekos	Last Strategic	Last Leger	Last Decima
Conservative	29.6%	30%	36.2%	31%	38%	31.8%	37.1%	37%	38%	37%
Liberal	36.7%	34%	29.4%	32%	26%	32.6%	26.9%	27%	29%	27%
NDP	15.7%	20%	17.3%	17%	19%	19.0%	19.5%	18%	17%	18%
Bloc Quebecois	12.4%	12%	11.0%	12%	11%	11.2%	11.5%	11%	11%	11%
Green	4.3%	4%	6.1%	6%	5%	-	4.6%	6%	-	-

Canada, Ontario and Quebec:

Canada	Actual 2004	Final SES 2004	Last SES	Final Ipsos 2004	Last Ipsos	Final Ekos 2004	Last Ekos	Last Strategic	Last Leger	Last Decima
Conservative	29.6%	30%	36.2%	31%	38%	31.8%	37.1%	37%	38%	37%
Liberal	36.7%	34%	29.4%	32%	26%	32.6%	26.9%	27%	29%	27%
NDP	15.7%	20%	17.3%	17%	19%	19.0%	19.5%	18%	17%	18%
Bloc Quebecois	12.4%	12%	11.0%	12%	11%	11.2%	11.5%	11%	11%	11%
Green	4.3%	4%	6.1%	6%	5%	4.9%	4.6%	6%	-	-

Ontario	Actual 2004	Final SES 2004	Last SES	Final Ipsos 2004	Last Ipsos	Final Ekos 2004	Last Ekos	Last Strategic	Last Leger	Last Decima
Conservative	31.5%	32%	35%	34%	38%	35%	35.8%	37%	39%	36%
Liberal	44.7%	39%	39%	38%	34%	38%	33.4%	37%	37%	39%
NDP	18.1%	25%	17%	20%	21%	21%	24.3%	21%	19%	18%
Bloc Quebecois	0.0%	1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Green	4.4%	4%	8%	6%	5%	5%	6.3%	6%	-	-

Quebec	Actual 2004	Finalt SES 2004	Last SES	Final Ipsos 2004	Last Ipsos	Final Ekos 2004	Last Ekos	Last Strategic	Last Leger	Last Decima
Conservative	8.8%	11%	27%	9%	27%	11%	24.5%	24%	26%	25%
Liberal	33.9%	28%	18%	33%	14%	28%	12.7%	15%	20%	14%
NDP	4.6%	7%	9%	5%	9%	7%	7.9%	8%	8%	11%
Bloc Quebecois	48.9%	51%	44%	48%	46%	51%	50.2%	47%	42%	45%
Green	3.2%	3%	3%	5%	3%	3%	3.4%	7%	-	-

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