PING!
Posted on 01/21/2006 7:48:00 AM PST by GMMAC
Tory lead firm: poll
Harper's party ahead by 12 points, NDP poised to boost seats
Norma Greenaway
CanWest News Service
Saturday, January 21, 2006
OTTAWA - The Conservative party is poised to form a minority government, while the NDP is likely to significantly increase its representation in the House of Commons, according to a new national survey.
The Ipsos Reid survey, conducted for the National Post, CanWest News Service and Global National, also says the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois are in a tight race to become the Official Opposition.
Darrell Bricker, president of the polling firm, says the survey indicates clearly that Conservative leader Stephen Harper will be the country's next prime minister.
"Harper is going to win on Monday night, there is no question about that," Mr. Bricker said in an interview.
He also said the poll's findings do not support speculation the race is tightening in the key battleground of Ontario.
The telephone poll of 2,000 people, conducted Tuesday to Thursday, says the Conservative party had a 12-point lead over the second-place Liberals.
It says the Tories have the support of 38% of respondents, up one percentage point from the previous week. By contrast, the Liberals were down three points to 26%. The NDP climbed one point to 19% and the Green party was unchanged at 5%. The poll is considered accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times in 20.
Barring a boost in Tory support over the weekend, the Conservatives are unlikely to secure the 155 seats they need for a majority in the 308-seat House of Commons, Mr. Bricker suggested.
"They are pretty well at the top of their cycle," he said of the Tories.
Ipsos Reid projects the Conservatives could win 143 to 147 seats. The Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois could snag 59 to 63 seats each, and the NDP 39 to 43 seats, more than double the number in the 2004 election.
Mr. Bricker said the bulk of the NDP's gains, as many as 15 to 20 ridings, will be in Ontario.
The New Democrats are poised to pick off seats from the Liberals in Northern Ontario, as well as the Hamilton and Windsor areas.
"Paul Martin's message about trying to stop the Tories seems to be working to the advantage of the NDP in Ontario," Mr. Bricker said.
Mr. Martin has been pleading with "progressive" backers of the NDP and Green party to cast their vote with the Liberals to thwart a Tory victory.
"But the ironic aspect of that," said Mr. Bricker, "is that it is kind of playing into Jack Layton's message -- if you want to put controls on these guys, vote for the NDP."
In Ontario, the Conservatives had the support of 38% of respondents, down two points from last week. The Liberals were down three points to 34%. The NDP were up two points to 21%.
The margin of error for the Ontario poll is 3.5 percentage points, 19 times in 20.
In closely watched British Columbia, Conservative support rose five percentage points to 35%, and the NDP climbed four points to 29%. The Liberals dropped one point to 27%, and the Green party fell nine points to 7%. The margin of error is 5.9 points.
In Quebec, the Conservatives were at 27%, up six points. The Liberals were down 10 points at 14%, and the Bloc had the support of 46% of respondents, up three points. The margin of error for the provincial result was 4.5 percentage points, 19 times in 20.
The 12-point spread in the Ipsos Reid poll compares to spreads of six to nine points in other recent polls.
Mr. Bricker said his firm's polls contradict suggestions there is a tremendous amount of voter volatility out there.
"We have not seen that at all," he said.
Mr. Bricker said the Tories have held about a 10-point lead over the Liberals, who have been fluctuating below 30%, for the last two-and-a-half weeks.
In short, he said, the Conservatives have peaked, and the Liberals seem to be stuck.
In Atlantic Canada, however, there are signs NDP voters are shifting to the Liberal party, which has climbed 11 points to 37% in the last week. The Conservatives were down three points to 39%, and the NDP have dropped eight points to 22%.
The Conservatives held a strong lead in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
© National Post 2006
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
Maybe we'll regain a long time ally that has been asleep at the wheel for the last dozen years.
PING!
Best of success to you guys up there on Monday.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
Afraid not. Hunting is a provincial matter so it will be 2008 at the earliest; the next election in Ontario is scheduled for October 2007.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
I was only hopeing, lots of my buddys in Mi. miss coming up for the spring bear hunt.
Let's not get too confident. Remember Bush's lead over Gore back in 2000 going into the final weekend.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
You're right. Despite their broken promises, I have far more respect for Dalton McGuinty than Paul Martin (Mr. Dithers).
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