Posted on 01/18/2006 7:52:16 AM PST by GMMAC
Tory support recedes slightly
Martin O'Hanlon
Global National with files from Canadian Press
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
OTTAWA (CP) - The polls they are a-changin' but not enough to make a dispirited Liberal sing. Three new public-opinion surveys suggest the recent Conservative wave of momentum may have crested or even receded a bit just days ahead of Monday's election. A Decima Research poll, conducted Jan. 12-15 for The Canadian Press, put the Conservatives at 37 per cent support compared with 27 per cent for the Liberals.
The NDP stood at 18 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 11.
Previous polls had the Tories leading nationally by up to 13 points.
The most recent Decima survey suggested the two main parties appeared to be in a statistical dead heat in Ontario.
It was a different story in Quebec, where the Conservatives vaulted into second place with 25 per cent support, and the Liberals plunged to 14.
An SES survey, conducted Jan. 14-16 for the Canadian Public Access Channel, also put the Conservatives at 37 per cent support nationally, but gave the Liberals 30 per cent.
Meanwhile, latest polling data from Ipsos Reid, conducted on behalf of CanWest/Global News, shows that if the Conservatives were to win a minority government with the Liberals in “distant second”, at least two-thirds (65 per cent) of Canadian voters believe Prime Minister Paul Martin should resign as Leader of the Liberal Party.
With a majority Conservative win, almost the same number (66 per cent) believe the Prime Minister should step down as the Liberal Leader—thus setting in motion a Leadership campaign and vote among Liberals.
The results came amifd a flurry of warnings about what a Conservative government would do to Canada.
Environmentalists, economists, natives, victims groups, law professors and even an abortion doctor have joined Martin in a last-ditch effort to stop Stephen Harper.
Martin pressed on with his Hammer Harper tour Tuesday in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. He warned that the Tory leader would "walk away'' from social services and `"turn back the clock'' by breaking promises to Canadians and the world.
He reminded voters that the Tory leader has vowed to renege on the Kyoto climate change accord, reopen a recent $5-billion deal with natives, and scrap Liberal plans for a national child-care program.
Martin said the election comes down to one question: "Who do I think reflects my values?''
Harper moved to reassure voters by insisting there would be nothing to fear from a Tory majority government.
"The reality is we will have, for some time to come, a Liberal Senate, Liberal civil service -- at least senior levels have been appointed by the Liberals -- and courts that have been appointed by the Liberals,'' he said in Levis, Que.
"That's why I say in the true sense of the word, there's no absolute power for a Conservative government and no real true majority. We will have checks on us and limits on our ability to operate that a Liberal government would not face.''
Harper is mounting a late push in Quebec, where Tory support has soared from single digits since the start of the campaign.
Harper said he's willing to work with any party, including the Bloc, if he forms a minority government but he's clearly hoping for more than that.
As Martin tackled Harper, other groups piled on:
* The Canadian Climate Coalition complained that the Tories were the only party that refused to respond to a questionnaire on the Kyoto Protocol, and accused Harper of moving Canada "into the same camp as U.S. President George W. Bush.''
* The Council of Canadians expressed concern about recent comments by Conservative MP James Lunney favouring bulk exports of Canadian water, and called on Harper to clarify his position on the issue.
* Sixty-six economists signed a joint statement warning that the tax breaks being offered by the major parties would leave a huge deficit in social services and hurt the poor. They took special aim at the Conservative proposal to eliminate taxes on reinvested capital gains, saying it would "deliver very large tax savings to a tiny group of high-income Canadians.''
* Phil Fontaine, national chief of the Assembly of First Nations, said he's not satisfied by recent comments by Harper that the party supports the principles of the Kelowna native deal, but not the final agreement and dollar amount. "Any suggestion that one supports the objectives and the targets but not the approximately $5 billion allocated to these targets is of great concern to us because we won't be able to meet the targets without money,'' he said.
* The gay-rights group Egale warned: "Stephen Harper goes ahead with his plan to reopen the divisive equal marriage debate, it will lead Canada into a legal swamp.'' On Monday, 104 law professors wrote an open letter to Harper saying that his plan to reopen the equal marriage debate would lead to "legal confusion, a lack of uniformity, and unnecessary, protracted and costly litigation.'' Harper also faced questions from reporters Tuesday on claims that the Tories harbour a secret agenda to reopen the abortion debate.
On Monday, Dr. Henry Morgentaler, the father of the pro-choice movement in Canada, had said Conservatives can't be trusted on the abortion issue.
But Harper maintained he "won't be initiating or supporting abortion legislation.''
"I'll use whatever influence I have in Parliament to be sure that such a matter doesn't come to a vote,'' he added.
Conservative MP Jason Kenney said he's not worried about the attacks.
"This is to be expected, it's not surprising. It's an extension of the desperation being expressed by the Liberal party and its own endless negative over-the-top attacks.''
As the Tories fended off the attacks, NDP Leader Jack Layton warned the Conservatives there are certain measures his party won't tolerate if there is a minority government.
He suggested he won't stand for two-tier health care, weaker environmental standards or an attack on gay marriage.
"If any party tries to threaten the integrity of these values and positions in any way . . . we will not stand idly by and allow the positive accomplishments of Canadians to be undone,'' he told a business audience in Toronto.
The Decima poll of 1,017 Canadians is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The SES poll of 1,200 Canadians is considered accurate to within 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Ipsos Reid poll was conducted from January 13th to January 15th, in which a total of 8256 Canadian voters were surveyed via the internet, yielding results which are accurate to within ± 1.1%, 19 times out of 20).
© Canadian Press 2006
That souds like a great way to f-up an entire generation of kids...
I've seen other polls that show the Conservatives leading with 42%.
Paul Martin has no values and he's out of step with true Canadian values.
Canadian values are not supposed to be SSM, Swingers clubs, safe injection sites and legalised polygamy and prostitution. Those are Holland's values, not ours. He's soon to discover that.
So how does the poll numbers translate into actual wins? Tories being up by 10 points means how many seats over the Libs?
Interesting how the media are trying to play it. They must be getting cues from the Rodham Clinton school of bidness. On the radio this morning they were asking questions like, "would a minority goverment offer Canadians the best balance" or "are you watching the polls so you can vote strategically, i.e. so that no one body has all the power that led to this type of corruption in the first place".
The evil is subtle...
18 point from the previous post to 10 point lead... I hope these polls are right!
Quebec, province-wide:
Bloc 39
Conservatives 25
Liberals 20
NDP 11
Greens 5
Montreal:
Bloc - 40
Liberals - 24
Conservatives - 19
Francophones:
Bloc - 46
Conservatives - 25
Liberals - 13
Thanks for the info, GMMAC. Gee, I wonder why that wasn't included in the article though??
I note that one of the scare tactics being used is that the Conservatives would undermine gay marriages. It seems to me that that should be a positive for the Conservatives.
The thing is that the US is doing something about greenhouse emissions. Not only are they reducing them, but they are part of the Asia Pacific Partnership on Climate along with Australia, China, South Korea, India and Japan. The aim of this group is to reduce emissions by developing clean technologies. Under Kyoto, China and India do not have to reduce emisssions as they are developing countries. Other countries have expressed interest in joining this group, including Brazil. Presumably Canada would join if Harper is elected.
I think the NDP will beat out the liberals in Quebec. They are in free fall there,
I believe that emission reduction through cleaner technologies is a better route. I used to be a stack tester and I know a thing or two about emission reduction. The technology is out there and it's just a matter of getting industry to use it.
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