Posted on 01/17/2006 7:26:57 AM PST by SirLinksalot
January 17, 2006
Condi Says She’s Not Running. Believe It.
By Jay Cost
Earlier this week the Associated Press reported that Condoleeza Rice once again said that she is not seeking the presidency. Of course, the fact that she has to consistently deny that she is seeking the presidency indicates that people do not really believe her denials. Perhaps it is because they do not want to believe them. Rice always polls very well among Republican primary voters. And many think that she would be a safe bet in 2008. She is likeable, qualified and capable of securing African-American voters (so the conventional wisdom goes). But Condi keeps saying no, she will not run.
The question: should people believe her?
The answer: definitely. Condoleeza Rice will not seek the presidency in 2008. The reason for this is that the position of Secretary of State is no longer one from which the presidency can reasonably be sought. The fact that Rice took that job – and obviously has no intention of leaving it – indicates that she has no interest in the presidency.
A long time ago, State was almost a prerequisite for the White House. Six of our first fifteen presidents – Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren and James Buchanan – served as Secretary of State prior to election to the White House. What is more, there is a long list of presidential candidates who served in the same capacity, either before or (mostly) after their White House run – notably Henry Clay, John Calhoun, William Jennings Bryan, Charles Evans Hughes and Alexander Haig. That office remains one of the preeminent political positions in this country. Of this there is no doubt.
However, it has not been a step to the presidency in 150 years. Zero of our last twenty-seven presidents have been Secretary of State. And the number of secretaries-turned-candidates has also been few and far between. Since Buchanan, only one person, James G. Blaine, has received a presidential nomination after having served as Secretary of State. The rest, like Bryan and Hughes, sought the presidency and lost – and were subsequently honored by a victorious president of their party with the post. This seems counterintuitive. After all, this position has very frequently been filled by individuals of immense talent and intelligence. Why has the American public not made use of this resource? The answer has to do with matters of politics, rather than matters of governance.
First, the number of prominent political positions, i.e. those from which an ambitious politician could stage a presidential campaign, have increased dramatically since the early days of the Republic. Governorships are now much more prominent on a national level. So, also, are seats in the Senate. These positions offer one a better opportunity for the kind of political posturing necessary to secure a major party nomination. Secretaries of State, on the other hand, must always be measured and reserved in their remarks. They are, after all, the nation’s chief diplomats.
Second, it is no coincidence that only three secretaries of State – Van Buren, Buchanan and Blaine – have received a presidential nomination since it was no longer in the hands of a party’s congressional caucus. Between roughly 1828 and 1960, party nominees were chosen largely by state party bosses at nominating conventions. It was unlikely that state bosses were thinking about the nation’s top diplomat when considering whom to nominate. Congressional caucuses, which nominated candidates in the early years of the Republic and which were much more connected to the happenings of the federal government, were more impressed by secretaries of State.
The rise of the political primary as a replacement for the boss-controlled nominating convention has not changed the secretary’s position vis-à-vis the presidency, either. In fact, it has worsened it. The top job at State is, to say the least, a labor-intensive one. The Secretary is required to put in much more time than, say, a governor or a senator, who can safely dedicate lots of time to campaigning. But the Secretary of State is always and exclusively at the service of the President. There is no time for glad-handing at a cookout in Iowa or fishing with the chair of the Manchester, NH Republican Party. There is also no time for the fundraising. Major party presidential nominees are no longer chosen by congressional caucus or by party bosses at a convention. They are now chosen by the people, who require long and expensive campaigns that begin months-to-years prior to the actual date of voting. No Secretary of State has time for that kind of commitment. This is probably why the post has most recently been held by individuals who seem to be at the end of their political careers: Colin Powell, Madeline Albright, Warren Christopher, Lawrence Eagleburger, James Baker, George Schultz, etc.
So, while this job used to be one from which candidates would emerge, it is now no longer so. This is important for understanding Condoleeza Rice. If she wanted to be President in 2009, she would not be at State today. She would have secured for herself some other position of political prominence. State is perhaps the only position that is both maximally prominent and minimally effective for attaining the presidency. Why would she be there if she was interested in the White House?
If she is not interested in the presidency, she will not be running for the presidency. People who run for the White House have wanted to be President for a very long time. Nobody is drafted for that position, not anymore and not in the true sense of the word “draft”. Putting aside all the campaign rhetoric about duty or experience to justify candidacies, the bottom line is that people who actually run are people who are hungry for the office and who have worked for a long time to place themselves in a position from which they could attain it. Condi is clearly not such a person.
It is interesting to note, by way of conclusion, that Rice responded to the question about the 2008 race while she was literally on her way out the door to Africa. That should tell you all you need to know. Compare Rice to the other 2008 candidates – McCain, Romney, Allen, Clinton, etc. The latter are today thinking about and preparing for their campaigns. Condoleeza Rice is today thinking about US-Liberian relations. What else do you need to know? Condi will not run in 2008.
Jay Cost, creator of the Horse Race Blog, is a doctoral candidate of political science at the University of Chicago
You need to talk to more conservatives and not just mindless party groupies. The void between the two is widening rapidly.
A rather patient Navy doctor informed my 19-year-old self that I had a heart condition that the service didn't want to deal with. It hasn't given me a lick of trouble in the time since, but he labeled me medically unfit when I tried to volunteer.
And he waited until I had completed a loooong and humiliating physical before telling me this, when the examiners found out early! I'm still p****ed about that.
I'm not protesting. I just quit the whole process.
My view is more extreme than most. The others want to see someone with proven leadership qualities (they aren't necessarily pro-life, or whatever). That means Guiliani, America's Mayor.
I couldn't support him because he supports a woman's right to choose to murder her unborn children. I can't hack that.
Another thing about Keyes's supporters that floors me is they actually think he's a good public speaker. Sure...if one considers condescending, arrogant, hyperbolic demagoguery good public speaking.
RTF Posts. I said I supported him because he was entertaining, and the wife liked him because he was Catholic.
Winning or losing is irrelevant, since the "winners" so far have been unacceptable.
"Most of the Republicans I know here in NC (and I'm now officially an Independent) are planning on sitting out this election in protest."
In protest of what? Didn't get every thing you wanted for Christmas? Kind of like a 6 year old that holds their breath until they turn blue.
Your realistic choices are pubbies or demonRATS. Period. Two words, grow up.
Howlin, you fit right in certain places. You can imagine where those are.
Your sort gives the good people of FR a bad name all over the world.
I AM condescending, arrogant, and hyperbolic. You ought to hear me lecture in class. It's red meat and the students love it.
Babe, it's not a protest. I just quit. That's not a protest. I'm no longer engaged.
I concentrate on statewide anti-abortion and pro-adoption groups. That's NGO's--government is NOT the answer.
Mindless party groupies? You mean the ones who work and pay to keep the GOP in power so they Democrats can't come back and finish this country off?
People who don't care enough to vote don't interest me in the least. Your myopic views of the world only put us in more danger than we're in right now.
So again... how long have you been out of the nuthouse?
Let's see, you ride a motorcycle and obviously passed through the public school system. And I'm repsonding to you why?
That's an old and tired response to the issue. In the end, after that debate plays itself out, the bottom line of it can be summed up in this slogan:
Republicans - Not as bad as the Democrats
Or this one:
Republicans - If you think we're bad, look at the Democrats
Oh, sorry, not motorcycles. Manly pickup trucks. I grew up around your type. I'll bet you still can't get any girls.
"repsonding"
What the heck is that?
Well I have no problems if she says yes because she will have my vote. But we could be beating a dead horse on this one which is what I truly think.
Color you clueless; neither Alan Keyes OR the Libertairan Party are on the ballot in NC.
"But as for the actual effects on my life? Will my rights increase instead of decrease? Will my taxes go down? Will someone finally hunt down and kill Osama? Will we finally confront China and stop selling out the country? Will we treat the War on Terror as a real war and seal the borders?"
Your right to keep and own a gun will change with the beast.
Your taxes will go up. Where have you been for the past 5 years?
We are trying to find osama's body but it's in a lot of little pieces.
With the beast as President, she'll sell the bastards any secret they want.
She will surrender to al queda and put six lanes bridges into the USA from mexico.
Nah, she won't effect your life, if you move to some other country.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.