The origins of the Great War of 2007 - and how it could have been prevented

opinion.telegraph (The Daily Telegraph) ^ | 15/01/2006 | Niall Ferguson

[wolf78]

Are we living through the origins of the next world war? Certainly, it is easy to imagine how a future historian might deal with the next phase of events in the Middle East:

With every passing year after the turn of the century, the instability of the Gulf region grew. By the beginning of 2006, nearly all the combustible ingredients for a conflict - far bigger in its scale and scope than the wars of 1991 or 2003 - were in place.

The first underlying cause of the war was the increase in the region's relative importance as a source of petroleum. On the one hand, the rest of the world's oil reserves were being rapidly exhausted. On the other, the breakneck growth of the Asian economies had caused a huge surge in global demand for energy. It is hard to believe today, but for most of the 1990s the price of oil had averaged less than $20 a barrel.

A second precondition of war was demographic. While European fertility had fallen below the natural replacement rate in the 1970s, the decline in the Islamic world had been much slower. By the late 1990s the fertility rate in the eight Muslim countries to the south and east of the European Union was two and half times higher than the European figure.

[wolf78]

It's speculation - but it sure is scary.

[son of caesar]

speculation born of insight perhaps? this clash simply must come to us, the seeds are planted and we are seeing the first shoots bump the ground. as i have said over and over, our adversary is indeed tenacious, resolute and implacable. do we have what its going to take?

[agere_contra]

It's Niall Ferguson, so one has to expect nonsense like

The invasion of Iraq in 2003 had been discredited by the ... failure of the US-led coalition to quell a bloody insurgency

But in general he is right. Nuclear war could be only months away. Pre-emption must happen or millions will die. As Steyn says, you don't let genocidal fantasists become genocidal realists.

[leadpenny]

bump

www.niallferguson.org

[vimto]

Good article - speculation indeed but serious food for thought. Also good to see the Telegraph getting an edge again.

I keep having the impression (and it is hard to substantiate this claim) that many in Europe are aware of a whole set of problems relating to Islam, but are in denial. Several times I have heard people say something like (in this case on Stynes 'It's the demographics Stupid)'if that is true it's all over, nothing we can do'. Not so much denial - maybe more a sense of inescapable fate
It's as if we are caught in the headlights and have chosen to freeze rather than fight.

We have lost confidence in our cultural heritage and pluralist democratic values. There is a thought that says capitalist democracy might yet be a transient phase - it contains within it (certainly in the European model) the seeds of it's own decline. All it took was a religion with a vision and purpose to defeat it (Islam).

So Iraq and Iran today - France tomorrow. It's all the same - just different parts of an uncoordinated ideological fascist assault. These are fronts in a theatre of war not separate, unrelated incidents.

Am I deluded? Are things moving in such a painful way? God help our children if we fail to register the signs of the times and act on them.

warm regards.

[SkyPilot]

The ideological cocktail that produced 'Islamism' was as potent as either of the extreme ideologies the West had produced in the previous century, communism and fascism. Islamism was anti-Western, anti-capitalist and anti-Semitic. A seminal moment was the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's intemperate attack on Israel in December 2005, when he called the Holocaust a 'myth'. The state of Israel was a 'disgraceful blot', he had previously declared, to be wiped 'off the map'.

True.

He also forgot to mention something like this:

Another cause was the mainstream media's alliance with the political left, that sought to hamstring President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair at every juncture. The media and the political left conspired to turn public opinion against the powers that could have defeated Islamic Fascism, but thwarted them at every turn because of their own ambitions. This political cowardice by the political left and the media (most now agree it was treason), led to the war.

[Waco]

The war of 07? Say, isn't that the one where Merry-O was wiped out? And all the tabloids wre so happy, celebrating, doncha know?

[SJackson]

If you'd like to be on or off this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.
Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking the keyword Israel.

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[bcsco]

Well stated. The only remark I question is " We have lost confidence in our cultural heritage and pluralist democratic values.".

Is it that we've lost confidence or have we frittered our heritage and values away through complacency about our educational system, thus not insuring our children and ancestors are given the values that are important? The goal of socialism has been a longterm one. Perhaps the most insidious part of its nature is its culture creep through our educational system, ultimately insuring that as generations pass on so do our values, beliefs and heritage.

Fighting socialism politically is important, but have we failed to see that second front until its done much of its damage?

[vimto]

I fully accept your point, and and thanks for spelling it out more clearly.

warm regard,

[Canard]

"Another cause was the mainstream media's alliance with the political left, that sought to hamstring President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair at every juncture"

Blair isn't on the 'political left' anymore? Who knew?!

[WardMClark]

As a science-fiction writer, I've plumbed this exact subject and came up with very a similar scenario. In my book The Crider Chronicles,which was published last summer, it was the "Bastille Day bombings" in Paris that finally dragged Europe kicking and screaming into the conflict. I put that event in 2041 as I was writing the book. I think now that was probably too far out; if I was writing that now, I think I'd put it no later than 2015.

[Teacher317]

By the late 1990s the fertility rate in the eight Muslim countries to the south and east of the European Union was two and half times higher than the European figure.

Don't need to fire a shot. Within a efw generations, the issue will be moot. Europeans will be bred out of position.

[dennisw]

oy oy triple oy

[Mike Darancette]

It's speculation - but it sure is scary.

Why do you think Bush is hoarding oil in the SPR?