Grit [Canadian Liberal Party] attack ads don't dent Tory popularity: poll

CTV ^ | 1/15/06 | CTV.ca News Staff

[conservative in nyc]

Despite a barrage of Liberal attack ads over the last five days, the Conservative party's lead over the Liberals continues to slowly grow, says a new poll.

"It's a Tory juggernaut," Tim Woolstencroft of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca on Sunday, adding the Conservatives are within striking distance of a majority government.

The Strategic Counsel conducted the polling between Jan. 11, 12 and 14 for CTV and The Globe and Mail. Here are the national support numbers (percentage point change from Dec. 31 to Jan. 3-4, the last time the Grits and Tories were tied 32-32, is in brackets):

* Conservatives: 40 per cent (+8) * Liberals: 27 per cent (-5) * NDP: 16 per cent (-1) * Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (-2) * Greens: 6 per cent (unchanged)

In Canada outside Quebec, the Tories hold a 45-31 lead over the Liberals.

The Quebec numbers had Woolstencroft saying this could be a very good election for federalism in Quebec.

Here are the Quebec numbers (percentage point change from Dec. 31 to Jan. 3-4 in brackets):

* Bloc Quebecois: 43 per cent (-9) * Conservatives: 26 per cent (+14) * Liberals: 17 per cent (-8) * NDP: 9 per cent (+2) * Greens: 5 per cent (+1)

Inside Montreal, the Liberals lead the Tories 23-19, which makes for a statistical tie. The Bloc has 46 per cent support.

Outside Montreal, the Conservatives have emerged as the clear federalist alternative. The Bloc has 41 per cent support, while the Tories sit at 32 per cent and the Liberals at only 12 per cent.

Ontario is another province where the Conservatives are poised to make a huge breakthrough. Here are the provincial support numbers (percentage point change from Jan. 4-7, when the Liberals last led, is in brackets):

* Conservatives: 40 per cent (+4) * Liberals: 33 per cent (-8) * NDP: 19 per cent (+2) * Greens: 8 per cent (+2)

In the Greater Toronto area (416 and 905 area codes), the Liberals hold a 40-37 lead, which means a statistical tie. Woolstencroft said the Liberals are still stronger inside Toronto itself, but thought the strengthening Conservative vote could help the NDP.

However, the Tories are strong in southwest and eastern Ontario. In those areas, they hold a 42-28 lead over the Liberals.

On the Prairies, the Tories hold a 59-18 lead over the Liberals. The NDP have 15 per cent support and the Greens eight per cent.

The Tories continue to do well in B.C. (percentage point change from Jan. 3-5, when the three main parties were essentially tied, is in brackets):

* Tories: 42 per cent (+11) * Liberals: 31 per cent (+2) * NDP: 22 per cent (-10) * Greens: 5 per cent (-3)

The leaders, fear of change

While Stephen Harper doesn't have the best net impression numbers with voters, he still towers over Paul Martin (point change from Dec. 18-20 poll in brackets):

* Gilles Duceppe: +44 (-6) * Jack Layton: +30 (+8) * Stephen Harper: +12 (+22) * Paul Martin: -22 (-20)

Woolstencroft said Harper has a better impression rating in Quebec (+30) than the West (+16).

Despite the barrage of Liberal attack ads aimed directly at Harper, Woolstencroft said Harper is still the man Canadians trust most to be prime minister (32 per cent vs. 25 per cent for Martin, unchanged from recent polls).

Strategic Counsel tried to measure the feelings of decided Liberal and Conservative voters on how they felt about whether the anticipated winner would be good or bad for the country (change from Jan. 3-5 poll in brackets):

* % say Liberals will win and that this would be good for the country: 21 (-17) * % say Liberals will win and that this would be bad for the country: 7 (-16) * % say Conservatives will win and that this would be good for the country: 52 (+29) * % say Conservatives will win and that this would be bad for the country: 20 (+13)

The Strategic Counsel asked respondents about whether the prospect of a Tory victory on Jan. 23 might cause them to change their vote, in order to find out what percentage of each party's supporters might be "strategic voters" (change from Jan. 3-5 poll in brackets):

* Liberals: 8 per cent (-2) * Conservatives: 5 per cent (-1) * NDP/Greens: 11 per cent (-3) * Bloc Quebecois: 3 per cent (-5)

Technical notes

Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.

Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three-day period. Interviews were conducted between Jan. 11, 12 and 14.

The sample size and margin of error (with the margin of error in brackets) for each region are as follows for the popularity and momentum questions:

* Canada: 1,500 (2.5) * Quebec: 370 (5.1) * Montreal: 176 (7.4) * Rest of Quebec (excl. Montreal): 194 (7.1) * Rest of Canada: 1,129 (2.9) * Ontario: 568 (4.1) * GTA (416/905): 237 (6.4) * Outside GTA: 331 (5.4) * Prairies: 246 (6.3) * B.C.: 200 (7.0)

Q. (party support) If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?

Q. (party support) In that case, which party's candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?

Q. (leader impressions) Generally speaking, would you say your overall impression of (READ AND ROTATE) is very favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable?

Q. (trust) Which one would you trust most to be the Prime Minister of Canada?

Q. (results of election) And do you think this result will be very good, good, bad or very bad for the country? (Note: Respondents were first asked, "If you had to guess right now, which party do you think will win the most seats in the January 23rd federal election?")

Q. (strategic voting) If it looked like the Conservatives were going to form the next government, would you consider changing the way you had intended to vote on January 23 or would this not change how you intended to vote?

To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.

[conservative in nyc]

This is very encouraging for the Conservative Party of Canada - 40% is nearing majority territory. And the Quebec numbers are looking very good. I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives are pulling ahead in a number of Quebec City-area ridings and maybe Pontiac, on the Ontario border.

Paul Martin and the Liberals should be afraid. Very afraid. I'm not making this up.

[conservative in nyc]

Ping.

[Aussie Dasher]

What sort of self-respecting political party would call itself "Grit"? Very strange these Canadians...

[conservative in nyc]

From Wikipedia:

Clear Grits were reformers in the Province of Upper Canada, a British colony that is now the Province of Ontario, Canada. Their support was concentrated among southwestern Ontario farmers, who were frustrated and disillusioned by the 1849 Reform government of Robert Baldwin and Louis-Hippolyte Lafontaine's lack of radicalism. The Clear Grits advocated universal male suffrage, representation by population, democratic institutions and free trade with the United States. The name derives from a quote by party member David Christie who describe the movement as "all sand and no dirt; clear grit all the way through", a reference to the type of sand preferred in the preparation of masonry.

They came under the leadership of Toronto newspaper editor George Brown, and, in 1857 joined with the Reform Party to form part of what became the Liberal Party of Ontario and Liberal Party of Canada.

The Clear Grits were one of a long series of farmer based radical reform movements. Later examples were the United Farmers and the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation. "Clear Grit" was a complimentary term meaning tenacious or dedicated.

The word "Grit" is used as a neutral reference to members of the Liberal Party in English Canada. It is currently used far more frequently in print than spoken since Canadians commonly pronounce the word "liberal" with only two syllables (lib-ral). "Grit" also has a conveniently small number of letters, for use in headlines.

[Tim Long]

Did anyone see the ad where the narrator says "At least someone's happy, eh?" Hilarious. The stereotype is true.

[Aussie Dasher]

Strike! I reckon "git" might be more appropriate...

[Rastus]

If I sell Grit door to door, can I get some X-ray glasses and a camera?

[BigSkyFreeper]

If the trend continues, I look for a few surprises in Ontario. A few Conservative Party wins in Quebec would be nice. Quebec has been a tough nut to crack for the CP.

[Rastus]

I'm going to feel like martin_fierro posting this, but:

[Crooked Constituent]

Liberals are becoming so obnoxious that they are growing a conservative movement.

[Asfarastheeastisfromthewest...]

Oh yeah? So how did Republicans pick the elephant, and Democrats the donkey, to represent their parties? lol

[Aussie Dasher]

Must've been one hell of a big night...

[xp38]

Nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result...Winston Churchill

[jocon307]

TROW THE BUMS OUT CANADA, please?

[PzLdr]

They didn't. Thomas Nast, the cartoonist did [along with the basic representation of the modern drawing of Santa Claus, and some great Boss Tweed/ Tammany Hall cartoons]

[dmc8576]

Germany, Poland, now Canada. Does anyone know where there is information on the success of the conservative movement worldwide and what countries currently have a conservative party in power?

[tallhappy]

Sell Grit -- make extra money!!

[CheyennePress]

Chirac is a conservative. .... bwahahahaha!

Sad, isn't it? But true.

[backhoe]

This old post is being continuously updated to reflect the current election situation:

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Go to "comments," go to "last," and work back for the latest links, quotes, quips, charts, and other useful information about the upcoming Canadian elections.

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You really need to read all of it to see how bad 13 years of "liberal" government can be.
Billions of dollars missing... censorship... gang warfare ( but you can't mention that... ) and corruption, cronyism, and kickbacks that would shame a Mafiosa...

Read it all, get sick, get mad- and if you are Canadian, go vote.

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[fanfan]

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