Posted on 01/04/2006 11:00:11 AM PST by hubbubhubbub
These are good times for gold investors, according Frank Holmes, Chief Investment Officer for U.S. Global Investors. In a recent webcast, Holmes told listeners: “We have a unique situation where all critical drivers for gold are pointing in the same direction.” Holmes identified six key drivers and talked about why they are all pointing to higher gold prices.
”There are many components here that are driving gold, and they sort of rotate around,” says Holmes. “It’s not linear.”
Currently, we are in a secular bull market in commodities because gold is the ultimate money, says Holmes, and because demand is now exceeding supply. “When paper money is being printed at an extreme rate, gold becomes more significant as a reserve currency,” says Holmes. “It starts to show up in people’s portfolios, and in governments.”
According to Holmes, gold prices are currently being driven higher by:
- Fear of a slowing GDP, which leads to negative real interest rates. Gold is attractive when real interest rates are negative. Currently, there is a global wide fear of a slowing GDP. Historically, when Americans have been concerned about inflation, the price of gold has surged.
- Oil exporting countries are increasing their percentage of gold reserves. There has always been a strong interrelationship between gold and oil, and historically, gold and oil have always moved in the same direction. “With 3 billion people consuming 20 million barrels of oil per day . . . it is more likely that gold will rise before oil falls, because oil won’t fall much,” says Holmes. Russia announced in November plans to double gold reserves as a portion of all of its reserves, from 5% to 10%.
- China, which now has a trade surplus, is increasing its foreign reserve gold exposure. Incomes are increasing dramatically in China, and citizens are becoming big consumers of American and Chinese goods. The new Shanghai Gold Exchange, combined with the liberalization of citizens to freely buy gold and the culture’s affinity toward gold, make gold an attractive asset.
- Low gold prices in the 1990s led to cuts in exploration and falling production – which has ultimately led to a decrease in supply.
- Lower interest rates have curtailed hedging – which also has led to diminished supply.
- The War on Terrorism has resulted in deficit spending and a weaker U.S. economy. The cost of war is hard on a country’s currency, and a weaker U.S. currency always results in higher gold prices.
According to Holmes, the supply side of gold is running at a significant deficit to demand. South Africa, the U.S. and Australia – which combined represent 36% of gold mining supply – have all seen declines in gold production. The world’s largest gold companies can’t find large deposits, and rising energy prices have hurt the cash flow margins of most large producers.
With the key drivers all pointing toward higher prices, Holmes says a gold price of $600 to $650 over the next 12 months is a “high possibility.” (January 3, 2006)
You guessed it -- like that thieving dog Roosevelt they will steal all of our gold!
Darn Asians and Islamics are buying all the gold. They are making America look like a bunch of suckers.
Well, now I understand the "delusion" part of your screen name. Where does "debt" come from?
"Because then the government knows you have them and when the next FDR gets elected... "
You mean Hillary. She still speaks with Eleanor you know.
Who do you think controls the supply of money, Einstein?
LMAO! you are quite the investor. buy an asset AFTER it appreciates 2300% in 6 years.
No thanks. Eagles, Kruggerands and miners with growing reserves that pay dividends are all I put my money on.
Hey troll go back to DU. I don't have the time or patience to educate you.
Two weeks ago, now crawl back in your hole.
Temper, temper.
Are you hanging out there with a long position? Nervous?
Well, you do some dumb stuff in your twenties. Having said that, the gold marketers have been eagerly offering to trade me their precious yellow metal for my green printed funny money, year on year ever since. They must have more faith in the Federal Reserve than they are letting on.
As we live in a global economy many exUSSR citizens remember the fall of the Ruble. I have a Russian friend who's salary is pegged to the dollar. They are buying gold to protect themselves from a dollar decline.>>>>>>>>>>>
The answer is casual to the most obvious observer! You are confused, I am regularly assured by FREEPERS that there is little or no inflation and REAL (inflation adjusted) wages are higher than ever before. One poster even happily informed me that a loaf of bread costs about the same now as it did in 1963!! Gold is going higher only because things are so rosy that some people just can't stand all the good news so they buy gold to make people think things are worse than they are. Either that or the aliens from the planet Kaputnik are hauling it away in spaceships.
What does appear to be linear, however, is the very recent upsurge in the use of the phrase "it's not linear.">>>>>>
At least it's new, I am growing really weary of "decimated",does anybody actually know the meaning of it? "Impacted" seems to be on a decline, thank heaven. My new pet peeve (to use a very old expression) is with people who say things like "500 times smaller" and "400 percent less". Some of our newscasters need to go back and study basic arithmetic.
Would you think a gold index fund to be the way to go?
Some of the gold funds are excellent performers, and unlike my penny miners, they don't have to be watched like a hawk!
Paper currencies come and go. None last forever. Today they are more leveraged than ever. Gold will always accepted for payment
Hopefully it will pull back so more.
I've seen and heard this all before... remember 5000+ nasdaq? 5 years later, and where is it today?
Speculation always collapses.. just a matter of when, not if.
Gold a physical commodity. It fluctuates in price. Stocks fluctuate in price. Prices rise and fall in cycles. If you recognize how it works you can invest and realize a profit. Some people are risk adverse. You should look at Money Markets and CDs.
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