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Auto Execs Predict Growth for Hybrids-(geniuses)
ap ^ | 1.4.06 | By DEE-ANN DURBIN, AP Auto Writer

Posted on 01/04/2006 6:41:53 AM PST by Flavius

DETROIT - Auto executives worldwide believe sales of hybrid cars and low-cost, fuel efficient models will outpace sales of sport utility vehicles, pickups and luxury models over the next five years because of lingering concerns about fuel prices, according to an annual survey released Wednesday. ADVERTISEMENT

Eighty-eight percent of the executives said they expect gas-electric hybrids to gain market share, up from 74 percent in 2004. Seventy-nine percent said they expect low-cost cars to gain share. Just 35 percent expect the luxury market to grow — compared to 48 percent two years ago — while 36 percent expect SUVs will gain market share.

There were some differences by region. More than half of the Asian and European executives surveyed predicted growth for SUVs, compared to just 6 percent of North American executives. North American executives were the least optimistic about luxury growth, while Asians were the only executives to predict much growth in the pickup segment.

The survey, by the auditing and consulting firm KPMG LLP, collected responses from 140 senior executives at 35 vehicle manufacturers and 105 suppliers. The sixth annual survey was distributed to 50 executives in North America, 50 in Europe and 40 in Asia in the fall of 2005.

KPMG said fuel prices are among the reasons for the shift in consumer preferences. Twenty percent of respondents said consumers would look for a more fuel-efficient vehicle if U.S. gas prices remained between $2.75 and $3 a gallon, while 45 percent said consumers would be swayed if gas prices went above $3.

"The rise in gas prices due to Hurricane Katrina left a lasting impression on the minds of consumers," said Betsy Meter, an audit partner in KPMG's automotive practice.

The survey predicts continuing market share declines for General Motors Corp. and other North American automakers. GM's global market share in the third quarter of 2005 was 14.6 percent, down from 15.4 percent the year before.

More than three-quarters of executives predict South Korean and Chinese brands will see the largest global share increases in the next five years, with Japanese and Indian brands behind. Only 19 percent believe North American brands will increase their market share in that time.

China is viewed as the most important growth market in the coming years, and executives predict non-Chinese Asian automakers are most likely to succeed there. Manufacturing will follow sales trends, with more than half the executives predicting new auto plants will be built in Asia, South America and Eastern Europe in the next five years. About half said there will be fewer plants in North America and Western Europe by 2010.

KPMG said surveys over several years have shown increasing pessimism about the future of North American automakers. In 2001, 56 percent predicted North American brands would make headway thanks to increased efficiency and competitiveness. Only 32 percent made that prediction in 2005.

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TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: automakers; executives; hybrids
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1 posted on 01/04/2006 6:41:55 AM PST by Flavius
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To: Flavius
You know, the way the world works - The auto industry will just about perfect 60 mpg hybrids and then oil will crash to $10 a barrel and they won't be able to sell them.

And I have seen it happen - Late 70's/Early 80's.
2 posted on 01/04/2006 6:43:37 AM PST by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - They want to die for Islam, and we want to kill them.)
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To: Flavius

Let's hope in five years it will actually be cost effective to buy a hybrid.


3 posted on 01/04/2006 6:44:17 AM PST by reagan_fanatic (Darwinism is a belief in the meaninglessness of existence - R. Kirk)
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To: Flavius

so which hybrids,

hydrogen bombs,

battery 8k/car battery disposal costs no one tells you about

whiskey driven

horse and hay..

all of the above



4 posted on 01/04/2006 6:44:42 AM PST by Flavius (Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: 2banana

honestly they can all go to h, the big 40 and oil co.s


5 posted on 01/04/2006 6:45:16 AM PST by Flavius (Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: 2banana
oh and tree huggers as well
6 posted on 01/04/2006 6:46:05 AM PST by Flavius (Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: Flavius

"Auto executives worldwide believe sales of hybrid cars and low-cost, fuel efficient models"

Hybrids aren't much better than the best of the fuel efficient gas only models. Hybrids are not low cost and appeal to rich libs. Low cost fuel efficient appeals to a wide range of people.

The market potential for hybrids is limited, until/unless they can make them cheaper and better. (Not to mention the fear of 8 computers costing $2k as potential failure items).

If GM was smart, they'd focus on the cobalt/g6 and refine it. Make it good, reliable, and sales will come. They won't. That's why they're going bankrupt.


7 posted on 01/04/2006 6:49:44 AM PST by brownsfan (It's not a war on terror... it's a war with islam.)
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To: Flavius

No way. I have three of the Prius. Dealer takes them back n/c when need to be replaced. Already done two of them. Prius. A.K.A (coffee bean)s


8 posted on 01/04/2006 6:56:17 AM PST by primatreat (Alzheimer's in all its glory is knocking at my door. Driving into the sunset with my prius+ Nav.!)
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To: primatreat

do you drive them in 3-5" of snow loaded up with people like 4-5 people at the time, or is it only a one person drive


9 posted on 01/04/2006 6:57:49 AM PST by Flavius (Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: brownsfan

Auto executives have made this decision because they have determined that the public has not yot learned that corrupt politicians are artificially witholding energy resources to push prices up. Maby the Jack Abramoff scandal will finally get the public to pay more attention to what politicians are doing to them.

Politicians do indeed cause many of our problems and they tax the hell out of us to do it! Ask yourself, who caused the Social Security problem?


10 posted on 01/04/2006 6:59:48 AM PST by paguch
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To: reagan_fanatic
True. Hybrids are the latest "mania product" the auto industry has to offer -- which is a product that people will buy even if doing so requires a customer to be thoroughly irrational.

We saw this last fall during the peak of fuel prices. People would wait for weeks to buy a hybrid version of a car that cost $10,000 more than the comparable gasoline-powered version . . . to save maybe $600-$800 per year in fuel costs.

11 posted on 01/04/2006 7:01:50 AM PST by Alberta's Child (Said the night wind to the little lamb . . . "Do you see what I see?")
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To: Flavius
so which hybrids, ...

whiskey driven

I don't think I want a whiskey driven car. They have trouble with bridges.


12 posted on 01/04/2006 7:06:08 AM PST by KarlInOhio (What is the most obscene gesture to a Democrat? An Iraqi voter showing him a stained finger.)
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To: Flavius
To all the geniuses out there: there are only three reasons to buy a Prius. You're a limousine liberal; You're a dope-smoking, sandal-wearing smelly hippy; or you're a miser deluding yoursef that you're saving a few bucks.

That's it.

OK you geniuses. Back to "Survivor". Or is that WWW?

13 posted on 01/04/2006 7:07:01 AM PST by Publius6961 (The IQ of California voters is about 420........... .............cumulatively)
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To: Flavius

One of my co-workers just bought a Toyota hybrid...but Toyota would only sell it to her if she met certain qualifications...she had to have a garage and live so many miles out of town to recharge the battery. So someone living close in town couldn't buy one as the company was loosing money on the batteries (I think). But she qualified and she is happy with the car and getting great mileage.


14 posted on 01/04/2006 7:07:38 AM PST by LADYAK
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To: Flavius

Perhaps motorcycle sales will increase as well.


15 posted on 01/04/2006 7:08:20 AM PST by 1Old Pro
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To: Flavius
Of course, watch Honda put a quick end to the hybrid mania when they unveil the homogenous charge compression ignition gasoline-fuelled engine that offers 30-35% better fuel economy than today's gasoline engines without the attendant emission issues that plague diesel engines.
16 posted on 01/04/2006 7:09:27 AM PST by RayChuang88
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To: Flavius
do you drive them in 3-5" of snow loaded up with people like 4-5 people at the time, or is it only a one person drive

I looked into that.
It would cost more than the price of a few Mercedeses to import all that snow!

: )

17 posted on 01/04/2006 7:09:30 AM PST by Publius6961 (The IQ of California voters is about 420........... .............cumulatively)
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To: Flavius

When they save me money and not just gas, I'll take a look at one.


18 posted on 01/04/2006 7:10:32 AM PST by mewzilla (Property must be secured or liberty cannot exist. John Adams)
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To: Flavius

I want four things in a car: reliability, high mileage, air conditioning, and a good stereo. A navigation system would be nice, but is not essential.


19 posted on 01/04/2006 7:12:02 AM PST by Aquinasfan (Isaiah 22:22, Rev 3:7, Mat 16:19)
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To: Flavius

I'm hardly a greenie but I have a new Escape Hybrid in my garage alongside my 2005 F-150. At least a 50% increase in fuel mileage. First tank returned 35.43 mpg. I didn't buy it to save the earth but because I wanted it. It will probably be a wash as far as cost but I'm glad I got it anyway. This year they are offering tax credits which is even more attractive than the tax deductions in effect for 2005.

In my opinion, the domestics missed their opportunity to cash in on this market.


20 posted on 01/04/2006 7:14:17 AM PST by RichardW
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