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Population shift has political implications
Knoxville News Sentinel ^ | 1/1/6 | Editors

Posted on 01/01/2006 12:38:52 AM PST by SmithL

The Census Bureau's mid-decade population estimate shows definitively that the American political center of gravity has shifted to the South and West. Those states are now as politically dominant as the Northeast and Midwest were in 1940.

That trend will accelerate when the 435 House seats are reapportioned after the full decennial census in 2010. Texas and Florida are expected to gain three seats each. Nevada, Arizona and Utah are likely to gain a seat.

New York and Ohio are likely to lose two each, and Iowa, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts will also lose.

The exception to growth in the South was Louisiana, which even before Katrina was on track to lose a seat. This latest census estimate was conducted before the mass migration out of New Orleans so the state may yet lose more clout.

The South did indeed rise again; 36 percent of the nation's population lives there, putting it well ahead of the other regions -- the West with 23 percent, the Midwest with 22 percent and the Northeast with 18 percent.

The three states that lost population between 2000 and 2004 were Rhode Island, New York and Massachusetts.

During that period, Tennessee's population, which stands at about 5.9 million, grew by 3.7 percent, lower than the national average of 4.3 percent. During the previous decade, from 1990 to 2000, the state's population grew 16.7 percent, exceeding the national average of 13.1 percent.

Over half the nation, 54 percent, lives in the 10 most populous states, a concentration that could grow as the Census Bureau found that over half, 52 percent, of the population growth from 2004 to 2005 occurred in just five states, Florida, Texas, California, Arizona and Georgia.

For the 19th straight year, Nevada grew at the fastest rate followed by Arizona, Idaho, Florida, Utah, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, Delaware -- the only state outside the South and West among the top 10 -- and Oregon.

The 2010 reapportionment will mark a significant shift in the national political balance of power. We can only hope that redrawing the new congressional districts will be in the hands of dispassionate, nonpartisan bodies that will end the politically self-serving practice of carving out noncompetitive, one-party districts.

For what it's worth, the population as of last July 1 was 296.4 million. We should hit the 300 million mark sometime in 2007.Experts give various reasons -- weather, jobs, affordable housing -- for the exodus out of the Northeast and Midwest, but is there any way to reverse that migration? We like Ohio Republican chairman Bob Bennett's idea. He told the Associated Press: "If you ever banned air conditioning, I think people would flock back."


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: census; migration; populationshift
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To: upchuck

I'm sorry to miss your company but happy that I saved your involuntary contribution to our local lunacy. (The neatest campgrounds that I know around here are Chevelon Crossing (south of Winslow) and Bear Lake (way, way south of Winslow). Both provide toilets, barbeque grids, and picnic tables. They are seldom frequented but really beautiful spots. Bear Lake is alpine and Chevelon Crossing is canyonlands.


61 posted on 01/01/2006 12:19:32 PM PST by NaughtiusMaximus (My exit strategy is Victory.)
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To: elmer fudd

If only you were right! It used to be that way but during the 90's we got Californicated but good. I miss old Flagstaff but spend a lot of time in the Riverton/Lander area of Wyoming (makes me nostalgic).


62 posted on 01/01/2006 12:22:43 PM PST by NaughtiusMaximus (My exit strategy is Victory.)
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To: MassachusettsGOP
It only voted for Kerry in 2004 because of the massive fraud done by students from Colleges in Massachusetts and Vermont that registered on the day of election and voted for Kerry.

Do you have any more details/proof of this? This is the first time I have heard of this allegation. Thanks.

63 posted on 01/01/2006 12:32:10 PM PST by nwrep
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To: ncountylee

But still the wealthiest, I mean in terms of "old" money?


64 posted on 01/01/2006 12:35:34 PM PST by RobbyS ( CHIRHO)
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To: NaughtiusMaximus

Thank you for the campground info. I'm looking at visiting Painted Desert and the Grand Canyon.


65 posted on 01/01/2006 1:56:23 PM PST by upchuck (Article posts of just one or two sentences do not preserve the quality of FR. Lazy FReepers be gone!)
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To: SmithL
It sure looks like a Blue to Red migration.

Looks like it to me, too.

66 posted on 01/01/2006 2:04:54 PM PST by ContraryMary
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To: CindyDawg
When it's time to count, they might find these missing citizens.

If they're Democrat they don't have to acually exist to vote. Nor to be on the NOLA or LA payroll.

67 posted on 01/01/2006 2:08:35 PM PST by freedumb2003 (American troops cannot be defeated. American Politicians can.)
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To: nwrep
Heres a link, I couldn't find more at this time

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1274726/posts
68 posted on 01/01/2006 2:10:27 PM PST by MassachusettsGOP (Massachusetts Republican....A rare breed indeed)
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To: nwrep
Do you have any more details/proof of this? This is the first time I have heard of this allegation. Thanks.

Although I believe New Hampshire is going blue, this story was all over local talk radio on Election Day. Cars and busses loaded with democrats flooding into NH to 'tip' it to Kerry. There was an unusual number of cars with Vermont plates around the polling places in the Lebanon area, as well.

69 posted on 01/01/2006 2:15:38 PM PST by who knows what evil? (New England...the Sodom and Gomorrah of the 21st Century, and they're proud of it!)
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To: SmithL

The cultural zeitgeist in Blue states just gets too much to deal with when it's pretty easy these days to execute the "interstate cure."


70 posted on 01/01/2006 2:40:44 PM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: elmer fudd
Also I'm guessing that one of the reasons for these population shifts is that we have more babies than the libs.

True. And when people in blue states, especially cities, do have kids they begin to realize just how non-family-friendly these places can be. Some major urban areas are almost completely devoid of children.

So once the kids do come along, it's natural to start thinking about options to go someplace a little friendlier to the fam.

71 posted on 01/01/2006 2:42:58 PM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: Susannah

A case in point is Florida. All the New Yorkers flocking there are bringing their blue politics with them.


72 posted on 01/01/2006 2:44:07 PM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: John D

The true blue Blues wouldn't think of moving to a red state, so there's some self-selection in our favor going on here.

But there still is some blueness moving with these people.


73 posted on 01/01/2006 2:47:35 PM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: Clemenza

See this lots of places in Virginia. Many fams with 3 or more kids and no sign of slowing down.


74 posted on 01/01/2006 2:50:06 PM PST by wouldntbprudent
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To: SmithL
The only problem with this is population growth.

The more people per square mile, the more liberal they will think and vote.

75 posted on 01/01/2006 2:51:24 PM PST by Age of Reason
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To: MassachusettsGOP; Soul Seeker
Don't Worry about NH, many of the Massachusetts expats in NH are Republicans, in fact the counties that are most populated by ex-Massachusetts Residents are the most Conservative in the State

Doesn't matter.

The more people you pack into a state, the more liberal will become the state.

76 posted on 01/01/2006 2:54:26 PM PST by Age of Reason
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To: Age of Reason

Well by that theory, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New York should be trending to the Repuplicans, all three states are currently depopulating.


77 posted on 01/01/2006 3:25:06 PM PST by MassachusettsGOP (Massachusetts Republican....A rare breed indeed)
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To: Neanderthal
What is BFE?

Lot of smartasses around here, I learned during my years in southern Arizona--BFE means "Bjg Fried Empty." Stretches about a thousand miles in all directions.

78 posted on 01/01/2006 4:17:39 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: MassachusettsGOP; Age of Reason

New York has grown, but all growth in concentrated in the city, and is still not as rapid as that of the South and interior west. Upstate New York has been depopulating for 40 years and will become "the Big Empty" within my lifetime.


79 posted on 01/02/2006 7:27:30 AM PST by Clemenza (Smartest words ever written by a Communist: "Show me the way to the next Whiskey Bar")
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To: NaughtiusMaximus

Can you still stand on a corner in Winslow?


80 posted on 01/02/2006 7:29:09 AM PST by Clemenza (Smartest words ever written by a Communist: "Show me the way to the next Whiskey Bar")
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