Posted on 01/01/2006 12:38:52 AM PST by SmithL
The Census Bureau's mid-decade population estimate shows definitively that the American political center of gravity has shifted to the South and West. Those states are now as politically dominant as the Northeast and Midwest were in 1940.
That trend will accelerate when the 435 House seats are reapportioned after the full decennial census in 2010. Texas and Florida are expected to gain three seats each. Nevada, Arizona and Utah are likely to gain a seat.
New York and Ohio are likely to lose two each, and Iowa, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts will also lose.
The exception to growth in the South was Louisiana, which even before Katrina was on track to lose a seat. This latest census estimate was conducted before the mass migration out of New Orleans so the state may yet lose more clout.
The South did indeed rise again; 36 percent of the nation's population lives there, putting it well ahead of the other regions -- the West with 23 percent, the Midwest with 22 percent and the Northeast with 18 percent.
The three states that lost population between 2000 and 2004 were Rhode Island, New York and Massachusetts.
During that period, Tennessee's population, which stands at about 5.9 million, grew by 3.7 percent, lower than the national average of 4.3 percent. During the previous decade, from 1990 to 2000, the state's population grew 16.7 percent, exceeding the national average of 13.1 percent.
Over half the nation, 54 percent, lives in the 10 most populous states, a concentration that could grow as the Census Bureau found that over half, 52 percent, of the population growth from 2004 to 2005 occurred in just five states, Florida, Texas, California, Arizona and Georgia.
For the 19th straight year, Nevada grew at the fastest rate followed by Arizona, Idaho, Florida, Utah, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, Delaware -- the only state outside the South and West among the top 10 -- and Oregon.
The 2010 reapportionment will mark a significant shift in the national political balance of power. We can only hope that redrawing the new congressional districts will be in the hands of dispassionate, nonpartisan bodies that will end the politically self-serving practice of carving out noncompetitive, one-party districts.
For what it's worth, the population as of last July 1 was 296.4 million. We should hit the 300 million mark sometime in 2007.Experts give various reasons -- weather, jobs, affordable housing -- for the exodus out of the Northeast and Midwest, but is there any way to reverse that migration? We like Ohio Republican chairman Bob Bennett's idea. He told the Associated Press: "If you ever banned air conditioning, I think people would flock back."
>>Northeast with 18 percent is the smallest region but still the noisiest.
Lots of small states => lots of Senators => lots of noise
Excellent, and that bears repeating! ;)
Northerners are flocking to N.C. in numbers large enough to inflate the price of housing in our small, rural area. When I complained of the high real estate tax valuation levied on my house and the fact that I could not sell the house for the appraised value, the county appraiser told me it was due to the vast number of Northerners moving to our area and paying full asking prices for homes. Northerners move into our area to retire and escape the high crime and high tax results of their blue state liberal voting record. The problem is that they continue to vote liberal once they have moved here. This migration has already had a profound shift on the statewide vote, I believe. I am concerned that if enough Northeners move to N.C. we could become a "blue" state within my lifetime.
Although I appreciate your thinking, Flagstaff is a poor example vis-a-vis urban/rural thinking. Flagstaff is a liberal enclave in a red state, trying hard to become another Vail, Aspen, or Jackson Hole. Our extortionate "Bread, Board and Booze" Sales Tax is aimed at trapping tourists but victimizes residents as well. The proceeds are used to underwrite a largely empty municipal bus system, largely unused bike paths (known locally as "wino freeways"), stupid "public art", and other distractions for our spandex clad dilletante elites. John Kerry took Flagstaff and Coconino County by 60%. The Republican HQ was egged and vandalized during the Presidential campaign. The number of Subaru's with bumperstickers saying "The Only Bush I Trust is My Own", driven by Birkenstock sporting lesbians is the highest concentration east of Berkely. Recently, our compassionate liberal city council passed an ordinance imposing a $2500 fine for anyone who "camps" overnight in a motor vehicle or sleeps in a cardboard box or other unauthorized bed within the city limits, making it in effect a crime to be homeless or penniless after sunset in our Oh-so-Democrat town.
(On the bright side of things, I purchased 7 lots and a house here before White flight from California drove real estate prices through the ceiling - and that alone has made me a wealthy man.)
N.H. has gone "blue" because Libs from MASS have flooded it to escape the mess they made.
Florida arguably is attracting more conservatives/Republicans then it is Liberals because of what jeb has done down there.
Really depends on the state whether this is good or bad.
Also please note that the inner lanes in a highway are for passing. They are not for driving at 25 mph, braking until you almost stop, speeding up to your "cruise" speed of 25 mph, braking again, etc.
The aging population will have far greater political implications.
By 2010 this Wisconsonite and family will be Tarheels. Hopefully catching some sun on the beach....
Unless the migrating 'refugees' are re-educated, then all they will be doing is diluting our redness........I, for one, wish they would stay where they are.
It sure looks like a Blue to Red migration.
I agree it is a Blue to Red migration, but I do not think it will change anything. The states where people are migrating to are already Republican states but most of the people doing the migrating are conservatives. We may pick up a couple seats in Red states, but we are going to loose some Red districts to the libs when the conservatives move out.
"It sure looks like a Blue to Red migration."
What makes it a double or triple whammy to the Democrats is that one suspects it is on average the more conservative elements that make the move. At least, any businessman living in those high tax liberal states has a high incentive to move.
So, the liberal states are being gutted of their working class conservatives, One would therefore predict a collapse to deeper blue enclaves while the majority of the nation goes red or at least red-purple.
The squeals well be loud in 2010 when the census comes in.
I agree. Aborting one's unborn children has a negative political effect in subsequent generations. How many Democratic voters have been killed off since Roe?
All the population loss in New York is upstate (aka the Igloo).
"The aging population will have far greater political implications."
One would expect the red states to have younger populations based on lower birth rates and higher abortion among liberals.
Most of the folks who move to places like North Carolina, Atlanta, or Florida are white collar. Whether or not they are conservative depends on where they came from and their ethnic/religious background.
I am a BLUE Republican not a RED Commie 'Rat pig !
Walk into any TGIF/Applebee's or shopping mall in Greenville, South Carolina and you will see plenty of families with more than three children. You NEVER see that in New York, New Jersey, Washington, etc. outside of the Hasidic enclaves in Brooklyn. I even told my sister that I have never seen that many young children in one metro area in my life. Being that Greenville is one of the most conservative metro areas in the U.S. (this is DeMint country after all) I am more optimistic about the political future than I once was.
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