Posted on 12/26/2005 6:53:57 PM PST by NormsRevenge
ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Climate change could thaw the top 11 feet of permafrost in most areas of the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, altering ecosystems across Alaska, Canada and Russia, according to a federal study.
Using supercomputers in the United States and Japan, the study calculated how frozen soil would interact with air temperatures, snow, sea ice changes and other processes. The most extreme scenario involved the melting of the top 11 feet of permafrost, or earth that remains frozen year-round.
"If that much near-surface permafrost thaws, it could release considerable amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and that could amplify global warming," said lead author David Lawrence, with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "We could be underestimating the rate of global temperature increase."
The study was published Dec. 17 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and presented earlier in the month at a science conference in San Francisco.
A permafrost researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, however, disagrees that the thaw could be so large. Alaska's permafrost won't melt that fast or deep, said Vladimir Romanovsky, who monitors a network of permafrost observatories for the Geophysical Institute.
If air temperatures increase 2 to 4 degrees over the next century, permafrost would begin thawing south of the Brooks Range and start degrading in some places on Alaska's Arctic slope, he said. But a prediction that melting will reach deeply over the entire region goes too far, he said.
The computer climate model didn't consider some natural factors that tend to keep the permafrost cold, Romanovsky said. For example, deeper permafrost, largely untouched by recent warming at the surface, would have an influence.
Lawrence said he hopes to collaborate with Romanovsky to fine-tune future studies to deal with those deeper layers.
Using supercomputers in the United States and Japan, the study calculated how frozen soil would interact with air temperatures, snow, sea ice changes and other processes. The most extreme scenario involved the melting of the top 11 feet of permafrost, or earth that remains frozen year-round.
Brad from Tennessee wrote:"The only thing that is ever permanent is change."
< sarcasm>News bulletin: The number of hours of daylight has dropped from 15 hours to 9 hours in the New York area between June 21 and December 21. I think we need to lay contingency plans for the 100% disappearance of daylight forever, based upon current trends.
GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out)
The last thing we need is trees growing in Alaska! Ever try drilling for oil with tree roots in the way? ;-)
+
+
+Are you kidding? If it melts all they get is the US EPA all over their buts for wetland protection. The trees have some da*ned owl living in them and before you know it they can't do squat! ;)
=
+
+
+
LOL. Poor Eskimos will have to set up cabinet shops and go drill oil in ANWR
"If that much near-surface permafrost thaws, it could release considerable amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and that could amplify global warming," said lead author David Lawrence, with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "We could be underestimating the rate of global temperature increase."
IF COULD
COULD IF
Yeah yeah, Got it.
REMEMBER... Greenland was once inhabited and fertile! Even though the texts 50+ years ago assured us all that that was merely a Nordic "Real Estate Scam" foisted upon gullible Scandinavians being urged to migrate to new "Greener Pastures"!
But..., rest assured, it is all Bush's fault!!!
"The cold, barren tundra of Lambeeeeaaauuuu Field is thawing from global warming."
Still trying to find any science in there.
I see people gobbling up federal grant money and designing computer models to justify continued grant money.
The tundra will then turn to oil or coal eventually, right? This is a good thing.
Cool, more wetlands for our feathered friends.
Let's get the oil out before the whole thing melts!
I always love the weather historians who try to explain why their yesterday's forecast was wrong? These people can't predict the weather accurately for tomorrow morning and I am to believe them when they try long range stuff? Get real?????
I was betting that "it's Bush's fault" would be in the first five posts. Hard to believe it took until post 26!
After all..., it has become a tradition hasn't it? (sic)
Remember, Katrina was either Bush's fault or Katrina was a soldier of Islam.
True, for the inhabited areas this will be a challenge for some time to come. I remember such problems from my days in Alaska...
It is a fact of life that the Earth's climate has cycled through temperature shifts throughout it's existence and (though disrupted) life adjusts and carries on...
And they most certainly will again. Maybe soon...very very soon. In geological terms of course.
I thought permafrost melts all the time. That's why you can't park bulldozers on it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.