Posted on 12/26/2005 6:53:57 PM PST by NormsRevenge
ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Climate change could thaw the top 11 feet of permafrost in most areas of the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, altering ecosystems across Alaska, Canada and Russia, according to a federal study.
Using supercomputers in the United States and Japan, the study calculated how frozen soil would interact with air temperatures, snow, sea ice changes and other processes. The most extreme scenario involved the melting of the top 11 feet of permafrost, or earth that remains frozen year-round.
"If that much near-surface permafrost thaws, it could release considerable amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and that could amplify global warming," said lead author David Lawrence, with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "We could be underestimating the rate of global temperature increase."
The study was published Dec. 17 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and presented earlier in the month at a science conference in San Francisco.
A permafrost researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, however, disagrees that the thaw could be so large. Alaska's permafrost won't melt that fast or deep, said Vladimir Romanovsky, who monitors a network of permafrost observatories for the Geophysical Institute.
If air temperatures increase 2 to 4 degrees over the next century, permafrost would begin thawing south of the Brooks Range and start degrading in some places on Alaska's Arctic slope, he said. But a prediction that melting will reach deeply over the entire region goes too far, he said.
The computer climate model didn't consider some natural factors that tend to keep the permafrost cold, Romanovsky said. For example, deeper permafrost, largely untouched by recent warming at the surface, would have an influence.
Lawrence said he hopes to collaborate with Romanovsky to fine-tune future studies to deal with those deeper layers.
An iceberg floats in the bay in Kulusuk, Greenland near the arctic circle in this Aug. 16, 2005 file photo. British oceanographers reported in Dec. 2005 that Atlantic currents carrying warm water toward northern Europe have slowed. Freshwater from melting northern ice caps and glaciers is believed interfering with saltwater currents. Ultimately such a change could cool the European climate. (AP Photo/John McConnico/File)
Time to buy land in Nome.
The shy is falling! The sky is falling!!
FACT: The earth's climate was once far warmer than it is today. At one time there were lions and hippotamuses in England.
The world didn't come to an end and the glaciers returned.
If the author of this piece believes it, he should by ocean-side property in Siberia now and make a killing in the future.
I guess it wouldn't be permafrost anymore then.
susie
Lot's of coulds here.
The permafrost is turning to tempaslush.
HELLO?!! What a worthless study!
If oil comes from decomposing dinosaurs, there must have been lots of white dinosaurs on the North Slope in the old days.
Cool! Or.... not cool.
Looks like they need some sort of Viagrafrost.
Having the Permafrost melt is a problem?
then the Eskimos could have trees. What a thought.
Better put some ice on it bump.
The last thing we need is trees growing in Alaska! Ever try drilling for oil with tree roots in the way? ;-)
The only thing that is ever permanent is change.
Hmm..I wonder if thats because the Sun is getting hotter..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/18/wsun18.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/07/18/ixnewstop.html
Are you kidding? If it melts all they get is the US EPA all over their buts for wetland protection. The trees have some da*ned owl living in them and before you know it they can't do squat! ;)
Primative whales used to swim in what is now the Sahara. The whole planet used to be fairly tropical. Life changes, and it will not abide the idiots who want a permanent unchanging paradise.
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