Tories (and Liberals) failing to make gains in Ontario, B.C. (solidifying support actually)

National Post ^ | 12/07/05 | Chris Wattie

[Heartofsong83]

Tories failing to make gains in Ontario, B.C. Three main parties virtually tied in Ontario, poll finds

Chris Wattie, National Post Published: Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Canada's two biggest battlegrounds are proving treacherous for the Conservative party in the early days of the federal election.

The Tories' hopes of gaining ground in British Columbia and Ontario -- where the Jan. 23 election is likely to be decided -- have yet to be rewarded, according to a new public opinion poll.

While Conservative leader Stephen Harper has found support in the belt of suburban ridings surrounding Toronto, he is still struggling in the city itself, the poll shows.

And the Tory leader's standing in British Columbia is so precarious that he placed third when voters were asked which leader seemed best suited to dealing with the major issues facing the country. NDP leader Jack Layton came first.

According to pollster Ipsos Reid, Paul Martin and the Liberals are in a virtual three-way tie with the Conservatives and the NDP in Ontario.

The Prime Minister and his party were the choice 32% of Ontario residents, compared with 30% for Stephen Harper and the Tories and 29% for Jack Layton's New Democrats.

The poll asked 800 Ontario residents, chosen at random, which leader and party would do the best job dealing with the election issue they felt was most important to them.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, putting the three parties in an effective tie.

"We don't yet have a consensus as to who we should put into government," said John Wright, the senior vice-president at Ipsos Reid. "Nothing's moving out there, yet."

Mr. Wright said that many voters in Ontario are still waiting before committing their support to one party, but said a large share of the province's 106 ridings could swing to any party within a few days. "It really is a very, very tight race right now," he said.

"And it's very volatile.... It will come down to maybe 5% or 10% of the electorate ... and that could swing 25 seats, which will decide who forms a minority government."

The poll found that the Conservatives continue to struggle for support in the "416" area code of central Toronto ridings, where they are listed as the first choice of only 20% of those polled compared with 39% for the Liberals and 32% for the NDP.

However, in the "905 belt" of ridings around the city of Toronto Mr. Harper and the Tories were chosen by 33% of respondents. Mr. Martin and the Liberals were picked by 32% and the NDP was the first choice of 26%.

That represents good news for the Tories, who see the suburban belt as rich with potential.

The poll found Mr. Harper and the Conservatives were most popular in Eastern Ontario, where they were the first choice of 42% of respondents compared with 26% for the NDP and 25% for the Liberals.

In the southwestern corner of the province, they were chosen by 37% of those surveyed, while the NDP was picked by 30% and the Liberals by 27%.

The NDP and Liberals were strongest in Northern Ontario, and all three parties were locked in what amounted to a three-way tie in central Ontario, with 30% of those polled picking the New Democrats and 29% supporting the Liberals and Tories.

In B.C., Liberal leader Paul Martin scored well when voters asked who would be best equipped to keep Canada together, manage the economy or handle international affairs. But Mr. Layton enjoyed his strongest showing in the province, identified as the top overall leader both by male and female voters, and by all age classes except those over 55, who preferred Mr. Harper.

In Ontario, the main election issues named by voters correspond closely to national results, with 32% of those surveyed picking health care as their main concern. That was far ahead of corruption, at 12%, and managing the economy, at 7%.

However, twice as many people in Toronto's "905" area picked gun violence and the criminal justice system as their leading election issue than the provincial or national average.

Mr. Wright said that was not surprising after a recent spate of deadly shootings in Toronto.

The poll was conducted for CanWest News and Global Television between Nov. 29 and Dec. 1 and was considered accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for results of regional breakdowns.

[Kenny500c]

I was wondering about that. I know in the UK not all seats in Parliament represent the same number of constituents, is Canada the same? It makes a sham out of their so-called democracy.

[GeronL]

I have heard that Ontario and Quebec get more seats per capita than the other provinces.

[GeronL]

Population & # Parliament seats

---

Ontario-12,541,410..... 106

Quebec-7,598,146.....74

Alberta-3,256,816....28

Manitoba-1,177,556....14

I am counting names on a list here, so I might have been off or something

[GeronL]

Ontario, 1 for 118,315

Quebec, 1 for 102,677

Alberta, 1 for 116,314

Manitoba 1 for 84,111

So I guess the answer is a big NO

[GeronL]

If the counting I did was accurate, hopefully, then the answer is there is very little evidence against what I heard judging from these 4 provinces. Manitoba actually has more seats than they should apparently.

[goldstategop]

Ontario's provincial Parliament has the same number of ridings that it has in the national House Of Commons - and they have exactly the same boundaries.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[goldstategop]

A grandfather clause carried over from the old British North America Act guarantees each province the same number of seats they originally received upon admittance into the Dominion and on that base every province gets new seats in keeping with population growth. (Although Quebec has not added new seats in a couple of decades - that number remains at 75.) The number of seats keeps growing with every federal census so unlike in the United States, no province can lose seats because the size of the House Of Commons isn't fixed at arbitrary number by law. As of the 2001 Census, there are 308 members in the HOC, though that number will go up again after 2011.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[GeronL]

What if their population declines?

[goldstategop]

Then the House Of Commons membership will not increase but bottom line - no province will lose seats it had at the last federal census. For example, Quebec originally had 65 seats in 1867 and added 10 since. That's the same number of seats it has today and despite no major population growth, it still keeps those. Ontario started out at 82 in 1867 and that number has keep pace with population growth to max out at 106 today. So while the formula for distributing seats is complicated, the bottom line is simple: no province ever loses seats.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[GeronL]

OK, but thats pretty stupid in several ways. If half of Ontarians moved to Alberta then Ontario SHOULD lose seats.

In My Humble Opinion

[HostileTerritory]

Provinces with low populations, and Quebec, are overrepresented. This means that Quebec, the Maritime Provinces, and Saskatchewan and Manitoba have fewer voters per rep, while Ontario, Alberta, and B.C. have more voters per rep.

I'm not sure if Quebec is still as overrepresented as it used to be. Someone else posted some numbers above. Since Ontario is the heartland of the Liberals and Alberta the base for the Conservatives, while the Maritimes and the other Prairies swing back and forth among the different groups, the partisan effect is probably a wash.

[HostileTerritory]

I'm sure that if you had a move as dramatic as that, some sort of change would be effected. Systems like this can cope with gentle shifts but not massive transfers that are unlikely to take place.

It's still a lot fairer than our Senate.

[Heartofsong83]

Correct. That's because the Liberal support is heavily concentrated in the Toronto area.

[Ashamed Canadian]

Considering that Toronto is a write off because the Liebranos have imported hundreds of thousands of 3rd worlders into it these numbers are actually pretty good.

DING DING DING!!! Toronto is full of third world welfare cases, homeless people, prostitutes and homosexuals. Not exactly a conservative stronghold.

[GeronL]

bump