Posted on 12/05/2005 11:16:49 AM PST by West Coast Conservative
Geopolitical limitations render Israel's air force militarily incapable of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.
The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.
"The Israeli Air Force has formidable capabilities and enjoys unchallenged supremacy vis-à-vis the other Middle East air powers, but Israel has no aircraft carriers and it cannot use airbases in other Middle East states," the report entitled "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran," said. "Therefore its operational capabilities are reduced when the targets are located far from its territory." [On Sunday, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that diplomatic pressure would not stop Iran's nuclear weapons program, Middle East Newsline reported. Halutz was one of three senior Israeli officials who warned that Iran would soon be able to turn into a nuclear power.]
In an article authored by Shlomo Brom, former head of air force strategic planning, the report said Israel's deep-strike air capability was based on the F-15I and F-16C/D aircraft. At a range of more than 600 kilometers, Brom said, Israel could not sustain an air campaign. Iran is about 1,000 kilometers from Israel.
"It is possible to determine that at long ranges — more then 600 kilometers — the IAF is capable of a few surgical strikes, but it is not capable of a sustained air campaign against a full array of targets," the report said.
An Israeli air attack on Iran must also include such support aircraft as air refueling, electronic countermeasures, support, communication, and rescue, the report said. The mission would also require precision intelligence.
Brom said Israel's intelligence and military community was divided over the Iranian threat. He said military intelligence regards Iran as determined to destroy Israel. The Mossad and National Security Council see Teheran as preoccupied with national defense and regime survival.
"While the first school assumes no political pressure can force Iran to stop its military nuclear program, the other school believes that political pressure can be effective in at least delaying the nuclear program significantly," the report said. "The second school believes that a nuclear Iran with a different regime will not pose a high risk to Israel and can be easily deterred."
The report said the Bushehr nuclear power plant was vulnerable to attacks but does not constitute a key element of the military nuclear program. As a result, the destruction of Bushehr would not have a significant effect on Iran's military program.
Brom said Iranian nuclear assets are located between 1,500 and 1,700 kilometers from Israel. The report expressed doubts whether such Israeli allies as India and Turkey would allow Israel to launch a military strike from their territory.
"This means that the Israeli attack aircraft would have to take off from air bases in Israel, fly 1,500-1,700 kilometers to the targets, destroy them, and then fly back 1,500-1,700 kilometers," the report said.
The Israel Air Force has 25 F-15I and 137 F-16C/D fighter-bombers. The air force has already received more than 20 F-16Is, with longer range on the F-15I, but the report said the F-15I aircraft contains greater capabilities at long ranges.
The report said the F-15I has an operational radius of 1,270 kilometers. The F-16I has an operational radius of 2,100 kilometers while that of the F-16C/D is 925 kilometers.
But the report said the real operational radius was shorter because the planes would have to fly at low altitude to avoid radar detection. Brom said the Israeli aircraft could avoid Iranian air defense but would be detected.
"In any case, any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft — interceptors, ECM [electronic counter-measures] aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft — would participate," the report said. "The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation."
how about a thousand foot high slingshot loaded with mutton??
I thought Israel had submarines with nuke capable cruise missle capability.
Its not like we wouldnt refuel their planes in mid-air.
Yup. My money is on Israel.
......the US would have to provide some sort of support....
That is unless Iraq provides the support.
They have numerous ECM aircraft.
As for tankers, I don't know. You would think they would at least have some.
Keep in mind folks, that One does not have to have a jet airliner to have an air tanker. Hercules C-130s have been equipped to do the job for the Marines, as I remember.
Not true. The only country in that area that is truly hostile to Israel is Syria, and frankly, the Syrians are a bunch of p*ssies. Israel can handle them easily.
Even during the Yom Kippur War, when Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel, the best the Syrians could do was make a few small advances in the Golan Heights before being turned back. The Egyptians, at least, managed to do a lot better before eventually losing.
If true, and the US doesn't do something about it soon, Israel would be fully justified if it launched a nuclear first strike against Iran. Can't allow those mad dogs to get nukes.
Israel is posturing Bush to do it for them.
Even though I don't believe Iran will actually act to do anything against Israel, I do think they certainly plan on obtaining nuclear weapons. Once they have these weapons, if there is a regime change anyhting is possible. But it seems like the entire world will do nothing to stop Iran. And other countries,like Russia, are actively helping them.
I need to contact someone who was working on the burrowing nuke. I know a politcally acceptable way of accomplishing the mission. Is there no one on FR who knows somebody?
Ah................dosen't Israel have strategic missels that could reach the target? (I guess this closes the debate)
It was one above-ground facility, like bombing your regional power plant. Iran has taken great care in spreading their program out and underground to become impermeable to conventional attack. Unfortunately for them, it leaves Israel only one choice. I said on another thread that Iran's key to survival is to drag all their crap above ground and dare Israel to destroy it all. Israel ends up looking like the bad guy if they do, but both countries live to see another day. Iran's incendiary rhetoric legitimizes the possibility of a pre-emptive attack. Iran's in a corner now, and they get to pick their poison, because, one way or another, either the nukes or the Iranian government is going to be a smoldering pile.
Prayers offered up for the safety of Israel and her people.
If they have the will, they'll figure out a way. I was banking on Israel doing the dirty work for the rest of us, but now I'm not so sure.
you posted this before, yes? Is this the program they recently terminated?
Yes. And Yes.
And the Israeli planes were painted with Iraqi markings. It will be hard to pull that trick again.
I'm confident that the Israelis will come up with a solution. Any attack, however, may end up being a suicide mission, if they can get there but can't get back, or if they smuggle in a suitcase nuke, as a poster suggested, to make it look like an Iranian accident.
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