Posted on 12/05/2005 11:16:49 AM PST by West Coast Conservative
Geopolitical limitations render Israel's air force militarily incapable of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.
The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.
"The Israeli Air Force has formidable capabilities and enjoys unchallenged supremacy vis-à-vis the other Middle East air powers, but Israel has no aircraft carriers and it cannot use airbases in other Middle East states," the report entitled "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran," said. "Therefore its operational capabilities are reduced when the targets are located far from its territory." [On Sunday, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that diplomatic pressure would not stop Iran's nuclear weapons program, Middle East Newsline reported. Halutz was one of three senior Israeli officials who warned that Iran would soon be able to turn into a nuclear power.]
In an article authored by Shlomo Brom, former head of air force strategic planning, the report said Israel's deep-strike air capability was based on the F-15I and F-16C/D aircraft. At a range of more than 600 kilometers, Brom said, Israel could not sustain an air campaign. Iran is about 1,000 kilometers from Israel.
"It is possible to determine that at long ranges — more then 600 kilometers — the IAF is capable of a few surgical strikes, but it is not capable of a sustained air campaign against a full array of targets," the report said.
An Israeli air attack on Iran must also include such support aircraft as air refueling, electronic countermeasures, support, communication, and rescue, the report said. The mission would also require precision intelligence.
Brom said Israel's intelligence and military community was divided over the Iranian threat. He said military intelligence regards Iran as determined to destroy Israel. The Mossad and National Security Council see Teheran as preoccupied with national defense and regime survival.
"While the first school assumes no political pressure can force Iran to stop its military nuclear program, the other school believes that political pressure can be effective in at least delaying the nuclear program significantly," the report said. "The second school believes that a nuclear Iran with a different regime will not pose a high risk to Israel and can be easily deterred."
The report said the Bushehr nuclear power plant was vulnerable to attacks but does not constitute a key element of the military nuclear program. As a result, the destruction of Bushehr would not have a significant effect on Iran's military program.
Brom said Iranian nuclear assets are located between 1,500 and 1,700 kilometers from Israel. The report expressed doubts whether such Israeli allies as India and Turkey would allow Israel to launch a military strike from their territory.
"This means that the Israeli attack aircraft would have to take off from air bases in Israel, fly 1,500-1,700 kilometers to the targets, destroy them, and then fly back 1,500-1,700 kilometers," the report said.
The Israel Air Force has 25 F-15I and 137 F-16C/D fighter-bombers. The air force has already received more than 20 F-16Is, with longer range on the F-15I, but the report said the F-15I aircraft contains greater capabilities at long ranges.
The report said the F-15I has an operational radius of 1,270 kilometers. The F-16I has an operational radius of 2,100 kilometers while that of the F-16C/D is 925 kilometers.
But the report said the real operational radius was shorter because the planes would have to fly at low altitude to avoid radar detection. Brom said the Israeli aircraft could avoid Iranian air defense but would be detected.
"In any case, any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft — interceptors, ECM [electronic counter-measures] aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft — would participate," the report said. "The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation."
Thanks.
Where there's a will, there's a way!
I like the way you think.
mc
You mean the boats of Cherbourg? That was a magnificent moment for Israeli pride....
Let's hope for the best...
Wise counsel (As long as we prepare for the worst, just in case... as the Israelis have much experience in doing!)
Are you messin with our sheep son?
mc ;>)
There is Islamic glory in the wasting of Israel.
Sorry but Osirak was heavily defended, although the Iraqis were at dinner at the start of the attak. There were numerous Surface to Air Missiles such as SA-7s and SA-6s there was also a lot of AAA.
Exactly everyone is thinking Air Power is the only option. They showed their exactly commando force in Entebbe and they have had a lot of time to practice and come up with plans.
Well stated.
I guess this report didn't fathom that perhaps Israel would be willing to sacrifice a fighter or three to disable Iran's nuclear program, the greatest near threat to their existence? Only need a 1-way and partway back trip, with either a rescue unit deployed to wherever they ditch, or a sea ditch within range of coincidentally nearby friendly ships. Or even just a kamikazi team that would live forever in Israeli lore.
Hey, I'm with you. Now we just need you and about 300 others like you in congress, and we can get this show on the road.
Seriously, we have to do something. I fear we will do nothing and just hope Israel will do it, so we can condemn her publicly while we applaud her privately. You can see from the tone of most of the posts on this thread that everyone hopes Israel will do the dirty work, because almost everyone knows what would happen politically if we do it.
But the fact remains that while Israel is well capable of handling any fight anywhere within reach of her territory, we are best suited for the kind of long-reach bombing campaign it would take to shut Iran down.
But such a thing will mean war beyond what we have done in Iraq, and our politicos are losing their will to keep even this going as elections draw near. We are winning in Iraq, it has gone masterfully in my view, and our pols are losing their nerve.
Bush hasn't, he's still determined to take it right to the end. But almost no Democrats are with him, and an increasing number of Repubs are losing their nerve. Launching a new operation into a new country is almost guaranteed to spook our pols into paralysis, they aren't the bravest people out there.
Our best chance is after the 2006 elections, if Bush is able to hold his base together in Congress and the Senate.
Iran is vulnerable; it is a collection of regions, each with its own ethnic nationality, each which has at one time or another dreamed of independence. We should be making plans to take Iran apart at the seams, but that is going to take some very steady nerves. After Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld, I don't see that kind of nerve out there.
I don't see that Bush has the nerve.
Giuliani- and only Giuliani- might?
The aircraft flew in full Israeli markings. There is a lot of myth about the raid and that is one of them. These were F-15 and F-16s and neither Iran or Iraq operated them. There was no need to paint them up in any other national markings.
Those B-52s are covered by the START treaty. Heavy strategic bombers are still inspected by inspectors from the Russian Federation and US on each others territory. The US giving Israel B-52s just ain't gonna happen!
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