Posted on 11/24/2005 4:27:32 PM PST by Icelander
SACRAMENTO - By 2020, California will be more crowded, its population older and its racial composition dominated by Hispanics, according to a report released Tuesday. The changes will pose challenges to state lawmakers, who will have to grapple with the additional pressures on already strained schools and health care systems, according to the report by the California Budget Project.
In just 15 years, one in seven Californians will be age 65 or older, the state will add 10 million residents, and Hispanics will account for 43 percent of the population, with whites accounting for about 34 percent.
The white and Hispanic populations are expected to become equal in 2010, when each is projected to account for 39 percent of the population, said Barbara Baran, associate director of the organization and the report's author.
The report, "Planning for California's Future," examined U.S. Census data and figures from the California Department of Finance. While it doesn't offer recommendations, its intent is to warn lawmakers of the coming shifts.
"The message here is really that this is what's coming. This is what's in front of us," Baran said. "This is the beginning of another budget cycle, and we need to take an approach that is longer-term, that doesn't look at isolated issues."
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has suggested a multibillion-dollar bond to rebuild and expand California's freeways, bridges, levees and schools, which Baran said is important in light of the state's projected population growth.
But that proposal should be examined "in the context of other challenges - child care, elder care, health care - that are really emerging," Baran said.
Lawmakers are focusing on infrastructure because it has been long neglected in favor of investments in social programs, said Assemblyman Rick Keene, R-Chico.
Improving roads and levees, which protect homes and the state's water supply, will only help the state as it adds the expected 10 million new residents by 2020, he said.
A 71 percent increase in residents age 65 and older could tax government-funded health care programs, such as Medi-Cal or In-Home Supportive Services, the report said. That age group has traditionally been very politically active, said Keene, who is vice chairman of the Assembly Budget Committee.
"I don't think there's any danger of them being a silent population," he said. "They will make sure their voices are heard" at the state Capitol.
In one respect, Baran said, California is fortunate because its median age is slightly younger than the national average - 34 years, compared with 36 years. That means that as the state's baby boomers retire, "we have a young, vibrant work force coming behind," she said.
But the state needs to ensure that its public schools meet the demands of a changing work environment, she said.
"This question of, are we appropriately educating the number of workers we need, is a real one," Baran said.
The education system will be affected by changes to both racial and age demographics, the report said.
Enrollment in public schools is expected to increase by 7.3 percent, or about 430,000 children, by 2020. But that is a slower pace than the previous decade, when it jumped by 21 percent between 1990 and 2000.
More than half of California's school-age children will be Hispanic by 2014, with a "significant minority" expected to be English-language learners, researchers found.
Standardized tests have shown a stubborn gap between white and Hispanic students in academic achievement, the researchers noted. The 2005 Standardized Testing and Reporting program found that 25 percent of Hispanic students scored proficient or better in English, while 58 percent of white students hit that mark.
That discrepancy, coupled with Hispanics' growing political clout, probably will result in calls for greater investment in public education, the report said.
HIGHLIGHTS
Highlights of the California Budget Project report "Planning for California's Future:"
AGE:
The fastest-growing segment of California's population is residents age 65 and older. That age group is expected to grow by 2.6 million between 2000 and 2020, a 71 percent increase.
Older Californians are expected to be healthier than previous generations, but the sheer number of them - about 6.2 million by 2020 - could tax government-funded programs such as Medi-Cal and In-Home Supportive Services.
RACE:
The number of Hispanic and white California residents will become equal in 2010, when each group will account for 39 percent of the population. By 2020, 43 percent of the state's residents will be Hispanic and about 34 percent will be white.
The white population is projected to fall by about 1 million people between 2000 and 2020, from more than 16 million to fewer than 15 million. About one in four white residents will be age 65 or above in 2020.
By 2014, half the children in public schools will be Hispanic. Researchers say a sizable minority of those students will be English-language learners.
Asians will make up the second-fastest-growing demographic, with a 48 percent increase by 2020. By that time, about 12.7 percent of the population will be of Asian descent, the report said.
The percentage of black residents is projected to remain stable but will be a relatively young population in 2020, researchers say. About 28 percent will be under 20 years old, with about 12 percent over the age of 65.
Source: California Budget Project, using U.S. Census and California Department of Finance data.
I don't understand why any state would want such a HUGE foreign population to sustain. A few people in office need their heads examined carefully.
This may happen more quickly than the study claims. The white middle class is leaving California in droves.
Those who keep putting up with the Liberals and RINOs in California deserve what they get.
This message brought to you by the Ninth Circuit, the ACLU, Queers (that used to be our word for them), Vicente Fox, child molesters, muslims and their enablers, and of course, hollywood (see also Queers).
Clintonfatigued wrote:
" The white middle class is leaving California in droves."
--Where are they going? I'm hispanic, take me with you!!
I don't want to be around all these foreigners!
Just as local, state and federal governments have planned or they would have tightened border controls 30 years ago, or 25 years ago, or 20 years ago, or 15 years ago, or 10 years ago, or 5 years ago, or last year, or this year.
They know the problem. They know the solutions. They don't CARE. They don't care about our jobs, our safety, our children or the sweat and toil our forebears put into building this country. So, they can just give it away.
A Pew poll said just 24% of adults polled approve of the illegal immigrant stance of the various governments. We the people, don't count for squat!
Our governments are selling us up the river and for nothing!
That has already happened in Texas. Hispanics passed the white folks.
It's past time to kick all the Illegals out and turn things around. When will the people say they have had enough.
Not all hispanics are foreigners. Additionally, these reports of numbers of "whites" versus "hispanics", etc., fail to take into account the number of children born to a "white" father and an "hispanic" mother, for instance. Those children are counted as "hispanic".
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