Posted on 11/13/2005 12:46:07 PM PST by lizol
AZERBAIJANI ELECTIONS: And the Winners are Aliyev and... Putin
Asim Oku, AIA Turkish section
Aliyev and Putin, the winners of the elections The wreck of the "Orange revolution" in Azerbaijan was predictable. It was caused by disunity of the opposition, inconsistent position of the West, Aliyev's "carrot and stick" policy and fears of impoverished population. However, the priorities of the Azerbaijan governor who just strengthened his grip of power are also predictable. Trying to keep more or less good relations with the West, he will sail in the wake of the Russian policy...
The West Condemns and... Accepts as a Due
Very few people doubted that the ruling "Yeni Azerbaycan" (New Azerbaijan) will win at elections, however hardly someone could assume that this victory will be so impressive. By the results of the voting by the evening on November, 7, "Yeni Azerbaijan" received 63 places in the Parliament of the republic, and two leading opposition parties from the "Azadliq" (Freedom) block - "Musavat" and the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (APFP - progressive wing) - only six seats. Non-party candidates and the representatives of the numerous small parties, which received 1 or 2 seats, took other places. During the elections there were obvious jugglings and falsifications, but, apparently, they were not so big that they could affect an outcome of the voting. Inconsistent and indistinct reaction of the western observers to the results of these elections is a very interesting phenomenon. In the statement of the International observing mission and the Bureau on democratic transformations and the human rights of OSCE distributed by the EU, a dual estimation of the results of the elections was given! On the one hand, it is underlined that the authorities of Azerbaijan took measures to promote more democratic and qualitative voting, comparing with previous, 2000 parliamentary elections. At the same time, elections, the statement of the OSCE reads, "do not meet to the European standards". OSCE "is concerned with problems of calculation of the votes in different districts and interventions into the elections process of some high-rank executives". A similar contradiction can be found in the in estimations of the American observers and the American authorities. The director of the Director of the American Center for Democracy Rachel Ehrenfeld and the analyst of the analyst of the Democratic Institute Dr. Radishevski are pleased with the course of the elections campaign. "We are pleased with organizational measures", - Ehrenfeld has told. "We have carried out supervision in the CIS countries - Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and others places.... The leadership of Azerbaijan took all the opportunities to grant an active participation of the voters, it created conditions for participation of the citizens in democratic process", - echoes Radishevski. According to the other American political scientist, Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, "there were many anxieties, connected with the elections in Azerbaijan, however, they appeared to be unjustified ", - he told. "Everything was much more democratic and transparent than at the previous elections, which were carried out in Azerbaijan, and in the Caspian and Central Asian regions". Cohen named the charges of opposition in massive falsifications by the authorities "questionable". "Azerbaijan has made a jump towards democracy. We consider that the elections were transparent", yet another American observer, John Ishiyama, associate professor of political science, Truman/Northeastern Missouri State University noted. The satisfaction from the course of elections in Azerbaijan was expressed also by James Goggin, US Agency for International Development (USAID) country director for Azerbaijan. But the US official representative Adam Ereli, Deputy Spokesman of the US State Department laconically declared, that "the USA share the point of view of the OSCE that these parliamentary elections do not meet to the international standards" and called the authorities of the republic " to investigate infringements immediately."
The Fiasco of the Opposition
Nevertheless, as it was mentioned above, the infringements are hardly significant to question the outcome of the elections. The opposition in the republic came to a full grief. None of its leading representatives received a Member of Parliament mandate.The most charismatic leader, the head of the APFP ("Azadliq" bloc) Ali Kerimli lost his mandate to a little known businessman, and the chairman of the influential "Musavat" Isa Gambar - to the brother of the chief of police of Baku. One more well known oppositionist, ex-chairman Azerbaijan National Independence Party (Azerbaijan Milli Istiglal Partiyasi - AMIP) Etibar Mamedov has lost to the rector of the Baku University. The place on which the former chairman of Parliament in exile Democratic Party Chairman Rasul Guliev applied, received the head of Azerbaijani delegation to the PACE. One of the leaders of "New politics" bloc (" Yeni Siyaset " - YeS) Eldar Namazov, lost his seat to the representative of party in power "Yeni Azerbaycan." There are several reasons for the failure of the opposition. First, Ilham Aliyev had an opportunity to learn a lesson from the "Orange revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. On the one hand, he took off a tension in the society and weakened the criticism of the West, he amnestied a number of opposition leaders, arrested in 2003. On the other, having initiated with the help of the Russian secret services "an anti-governmental plot", he resorted to repressions and shown himself as the imperious governor in the eyes of intimidated population. Simultaneously, he took on a series of populistic economic measures, having promised the population to double the minimal wages and to return the level of prices of 2004. Secondly, as against Akaev and Yanukovich, Ilham Aliyev did not start to position himself against the West as a whole and the USA in particular. The membership in GUAM (Georgia – Ukraine – Azerbaijan – Moldova bloc) allowed him to pretend at the eyes of the world and his own population as a reformer and by that he managed to complicate the actions of the opposition. Thus, he made everything to convince the USA and Europe that he can guarantee stability of Azerbaijan – a key point on the way of deliveries of energy carriers to the West from the Caspian Sea area and Central Asia. At the same time Aliyev continued to keep friendly relations with Moscow and received its support. Thirdly, the opposition in Azerbaijan could not create a united front. The leaders of the "Azadliq" failed to find common language with the "New policy" bloc and also with tens more another independent parties operating in the country. Fourthly, Aliyev's dynasty, representing, as a matter of fact the "red" Soviet "Partocrasy", is perceived in Azerbaijan, as a basis of stability, while APFP is associated with the uneasy times, which reigned in the republic at the beginning of the Nineties.
The Russian "Counselor of State" in Baku
A shattering defeat left the opposition no chances of success. Charges in total falsification of the elections will not find a response in the republic and in the West, and the protest action in Baku, organized on November, 9 by "Azadliq", did not become the beginning of confrontation with the authorities. "The Orange revolution" didn't happen in Azerbaijan, and the main question today is which course Ilham Aliyev will take. The reaction of Russia in this context, as against a muffled position of the West, was straightforward - Moscow did not hide its joy. After the failures in Ukraine and in Georgia Moscow has taken, at last, its revenge in Azerbaijan. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia hastened to declare that "the elections have passed according to the the Azerbaijani legislation", and Putin congratulated Ilhama Aliyev on "successful parliamentary elections." If the officials are content, being constrained by diplomatic duties, the Russian analysts and politicians do not hide their happiness. Thus, a specific nuance must be marked - the eulogies are not only praising the ruling regime as a whole, but the role of the President is especially marked. The observer from the State Duma Michael Markelov ("Rodina") says that the outcome of the elections was predetermined by "Ilham Aliyev's unconditional prestige", and Mikhail Alexandrov, an expert on Azerbaijan with the Institute for CIS or former Soviet states in Moscow, claims that "cooperation with "Yeni Azerbaycan" is not necessary, as there are good relations with its leader - the President of Azerbaijan." Such a wheedling appeal to the present ruler of Azerbaijan confirms certain assumptions made by a number of the Azerbaijani politicians and mass media after a wave of arrests and dismissals at the end of October. According to these assumptions, the Russian special services have provoked Aliyev to mass repressions against his coterie, isolated him and thus made him dependent from Moscow. It is typical that the mission of the Russian observers in the republic was headed by the Executive Secretary of the CIS Vladimir Rushaylo. Just to remind, a couple of weeks before the "antigovernmental plot" Rushaylo brought to Azerbaijan high-ranking representatives of the Russian secret services, and he was the first foreign official with Aliyev met a day after the elections. Thus, it is easy to understand, who really rules in Baku.
To what extent is the so called Orange opposition Islamist? Do you know?
I don't think they are islamists to any extent.
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NO, but they are pro Turk which makes them highly suspect.
I don't think that Putin will let go of another Soviet republic so lightly again.
Got news for you, we supported Aliev's first "elections" and this one because he's friendly to the US (and not that friendly to the Russians), just like Poland and the rest of the EU avoided funding the Moldova color revolution when the Moldovan Communists bent their knee to the EU and were allowed to run one of the most corrupt elections in European history.
Azerbajen is allied to us not the Russians and we equally ignored the first "election" of Aliev after his father died. Not everything around there is about Putin.
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