Catholic Voters A Key Constituency

Forbes.com ^ | 11-09-05 | Oxford Analytica

[Salvation]

Catholic Voters A Key Constituency
Oxford Analytica, 11.09.05, 6:00 AM ET

NEW YORK - Voters cast ballots Tuesday in bellwether gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and on a slate of politically controversial initiatives in California. This is an "off-year" election--federal offices are not being contested--but the outcome may signal whether recent White House setbacks have influenced the electorate. Catholic voters are an important "swing" constituency and have been heavily courted by both parties.

Analysis of the 2004 presidential campaign suggests that energizing President George Bush's base of support and appealing to certain "swing voters," including Catholics, were decisive factors. In Ohio, Bush's victory was sealed in part by Catholic voters. Significantly, he increased his vote among Catholics there by 170,000 over his 2000 total--more than his margin of victory. Yet while Republicans successfully courted religious Catholics in 2004, repeating this success may have proved difficult in Tuesday's elections.

Catholics make up a vital, albeit highly fragmented, component of the electorate. There are 44 million adult Catholics in the United States. Therefore, the Catholic vote is approximately 25% of the electorate.

There is a significant distinction between "faithful" Catholics and mere "culturally identified" Catholics. The former tend to be conservative in their voting patterns, while the latter are often liberal. The most substantial concentrations of Catholics are in the Midwest, Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions. The most politically competitive states often have the largest Catholic populations.

Recent presidential elections indicate the degree to which Catholics are now swing voters. These results underline the fact that the Catholic vote is deeply split between the major parties. The diversity of the group is one of the challenges any candidate faces when making special appeals to Catholics. Nonetheless, religious beliefs are not the dominant influence on most Catholics' voting behavior. The Church hierarchy is usually reluctant to stipulate its voting preferences.

The decline of the traditional Catholic association with the Democrats is also due to economic trends and population shifts. Catholics are now more often educated, wealthy, suburban and employed in the higher professions than ever before. Nonetheless, the shift away from the Democratic Party has not led most Catholics to embrace the Republicans. Like the rest of the electorate, Catholics have become increasingly independent of the main parties. Among the minority of Catholics that have retained strong party affiliations, white Catholics have tended to support Republican candidates, while new immigrants have forged links with Democrats.

Bush has courted the support of religious Catholics. Yet polls suggest that Bush's conservative politics and opposition to stem cell research have hurt his standing among many moderate and liberal Catholics. Despite the splintering of the Catholic vote, many Catholics retain some of their old Democratic Party impulses, particularly strong support for Social Security and mildly redistributive economic policies. Furthermore, Bush already had the support of conservative Catholics when he became president.

Recent elections suggest the Republicans are gaining support from Catholic voters, but demographic trends portend an eventual reversal. White, Catholic churchgoers are more reliably Republican than ever. But except for Cuban-Americans, new Catholic immigrants are solidly Democratic. Affluent white Catholics are heavy voters, while Hispanic Catholics are a much faster-growing portion of the population but have notoriously low turnout rates. Therefore, both parties are attempting to appeal to new Hispanic immigrants, who may be the key to capturing a majority of the Catholic vote in future elections.

Catholics were traditionally an important Democratic constituency but have leaned increasingly toward the Republican Party since the 1980s. White Catholics are an important component of suburban Republican support, while new Hispanic immigrants tend to back the Democrats. Catholic voters embody the current political divide. Capturing the majority of the Catholic vote in national elections--and in many local polls--has become a prerequisite for victory.

Click here for the full story.

[Salvation]

For your further discussion.

[Salvation]

Catholic Discussion Ping!

Please notify me via FReepmail if you would like to be added to or taken off the Catholic Discussion Ping List.

[Salvation]

Any thoughts from you out there? Especially from the states of Virginia, New Jersey Ohio, and California................

[Salvation]

**There is a significant distinction between "faithful" Catholics and mere "culturally identified" Catholics. The former tend to be conservative in their voting patterns, while the latter are often liberal.**

We call the latter group CINOs Catholics in Name Only

[Salvation]

Sorry, folks, I forgot that link wants you to sign in.

[Nihil Obstat]

What will it take to wake the CINO's up?

They will vote Dim and then when you ask them why the only reason they give is that their grandparents did.

[Salvation]

Such a ridiculous reason.

My dad, a staunch Catholic, now 93, still votes dimocrat. Drives me nuts!

[muawiyah]

The guy who just won the job of Governor in Virginia, old what's-his-name ~ slips my mind completely ~ is a Catholic who argues against the death penalty because his church taught him that was bad, but supports abortion because ......... well, probably because he thinks he was taught that in church as well.

Guy is a total nut case ~ you simply cannot make that sort of argument, Catholic or otherwise, because it comes down to saying those guilty of bloodshed should live, and the innocent should die.

You want a candidate for the Beast who is going to get tossed into the pit, this guy is it.

I don't trust him and neither should anyone else.

Still, he appears to have attracted Virginia's Catholic vote.

We must have a bunch of "cultural Catholics".

[Salvation]

There are a lot of REAL Catholics there too, especially in the Arlington diocese.

I was very disappointed that a dimocrat got elected.

[old and tired]

They will vote Dim and then when you ask them why the only reason they give is that their grandparents did.

Those folks are fewer and far between. I think there a lot of folks who call themselves Catholic who only go into churches for weddings, funerals, baptisms and first communions. Those folks are more likely to cast their votes dependent upon other circumstances, like their incomes and whether or not they belong to a union - their religion has little, if anything to do with it.

There are, however, a small number of very liberal, but nonetheless religious Catholics. These are the folks who consider Saddam Hussein more tolerable than occupying Iraq. They consider abortion bad, but are more interested in affordable housing for the homeless and raising the minimum wage. They trust the government so much they'd like to see medicine socialized. Quite frankly, these people frighten me, and even more frightening is if you open up the Church doors of any random parish you'll more than likely find one of these loons is the DRE.

[Salvation]

Here's the rest of the Forbes story:

UNITED STATES: Catholic voters become key constituency

Tuesday, November 8 2005

Relevant Profiles: United States |

EVENT: Voters will cast ballots today in bellwether gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and on a slate of politically controversial initiatives in California.

SIGNIFICANCE: This is an 'off-year' election -- federal offices are not being contested -- but the outcome may signal whether recent White House setbacks have influenced the electorate. Catholic voters are an important 'swing' constituency and have been heavily courted by both parties.

 

ANALYSIS: Analysis of the 2004 presidential campaign suggests that energising President George Bush's base of support, and appealing to certain 'swing voters', including Catholics, were decisive factors. In Ohio (which would have provided Democrat John Kerry with the electoral college majority he needed to win the presidency), Bush's victory was sealed in part by Catholic voters. Bush won the state by about 132,000 votes. Significantly, he increased his vote among Catholics there by 170,000 over his 2000 total -- more than his margin of victory. Yet while Republicans successfully courted religious Catholics in 2004, repeating this success may prove difficult in today's elections.

Divided Catholics. Catholics comprise a vital, albeit highly fragmented, component of the electorate:

• There are 44 million adult Catholics in the United States. Therefore, the Catholic vote comprises approximately 25% of the electorate (about 52% of the electorate is Protestant).

• There is a significant distinction between 'faithful' Catholics and mere 'culturally identified' Catholics. The former tend to be conservative in their voting patterns, while the latter are often liberal.

• The most substantial concentrations of Catholics are in the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. The most politically competitive states often have the largest Catholic populations.

Recent presidential elections indicate the degree to which Catholics are now swing voters:

• In 2004, Bush won small majorities in both the national vote and among Catholics voters.
• In 2000, Democratic candidate Al Gore achieved a marginal victory in the popular vote and among Catholics.
• In 1996, then-President Bill Clinton captured the most votes nationally and among Catholics.

These results underline the fact that the Catholic vote is deeply split between the major parties. The diversity of the group is one of the challenges any candidate faces when making special appeals to Catholics.

Traditional affiliation. Catholics were once a key constituency of the New Deal coalition that anchored the Democratic Party (see UNITED STATES: Liberals capable of political revival - October 10, 2005). Many Catholics were from immigrant families, lived in inner cities and identified with the labour movement. Therefore, economic status and ethnicity largely underpinned Catholic support for the Democrats.

Republican inroads. The splintering of the Catholic vote began in the 1970s when Democratic presidential nominee George McGovern appealed to abortion-rights advocates and the Supreme Court issued the Roe vs Wade decision legalising abortion (see UNITED STATES: Can the conservative ascendancy last? - July 25, 2005). By the 1980s, Republicans actively appealed to anti-abortion voters and more Catholics shifted their political allegiance. Indeed, from 1980 to 2000 only one Democratic presidential candidate (Bill Clinton in 1996) secured a majority of the Catholic vote.

Beyond religion. Nonetheless, religious beliefs are not the dominant influence on the voting behaviour of most Catholics. The Church hierarchy is usually reluctant to stipulate its voting preferences. Moreover, even when certain bishops do offer such guidance, few Catholic voters are prepared to listen.

Economic factors. The decline of the traditional Catholic association with the Democrats is also due to economic trends and population shifts. Although their parents or grandparents were of the immigrant underclass, many non-Hispanic Catholics have achieved economic success, moved to the suburbs and become Independents or Republicans. Catholics are now more often educated, wealthy, suburban and employed in the higher professions than ever before. Many of these Catholics care more about tax cuts than about the minimum wage and welfare.

Independent-minded. Nonetheless, the shift away from the Democratic Party has not led most Catholics to embrace the Republicans. Like the rest of the electorate, Catholics have become increasingly independent of the main parties. Among the minority of Catholics that have retained strong party affiliations, white Catholics have tended to support Republican candidates, while new immigrants -- particularly Hispanics -- have forged links with Democrats.

White House strategy. Bush has courted the support of religious Catholics:

• He frequently confers with the Church's bishops and cardinals.
• He has given speeches to the Knights of Columbus in Texas, at the opening of the John Paul II Cultural Center in Washington, DC and at Notre Dame University in Indiana.
• Bush's addresses often include language that is commonly used in Catholic discourse. When he speaks of the 'culture of life', he is utilising the rhetoric of religious Catholics.
• He reversed Clinton's executive order that provided federal funding for abortion services to US personnel overseas. He also denied a state-level request to expand a federally funded programme that provides contraceptives to low-income women.

Liberal backlash? Yet, polls suggest that Bush's conservative politics and opposition to stem cell research have hurt his standing among many moderate and liberal Catholics. Despite the splintering of the Catholic vote, many Catholics retain some of their old Democratic Party impulses, particularly strong support for Social Security and mildly redistributive economic policies (see UNITED STATES: Republican fissures imperil Bush agenda - October 19, 2005). Furthermore, Bush already had the support of conservative Catholics when he became president. His policies have retained that support, but not broadened his appeal among the bulk of moderate Catholics.

Identity politics. Many surveys fail to make a distinction between religious and 'secular Catholics', and lump together regular churchgoers with those who simply identify culturally as Catholics. Polls that recognise this difference show that Bush has strong support among the 'faithful', which suggests that his effort to court religious Catholics has been successful. However, the much larger population of Catholic identifiers who are not persuaded by the Church's positions on political issues may create problems for the president's party.

Future trends. Recent elections suggest the Republicans are ascendant among Catholic voters, but demographic trends portend an eventual reversal. White, Catholic churchgoers are more reliably Republican than ever. However, except for Cuban-Americans, new Catholic immigrants are solidly Democratic. Affluent white Catholics are heavy voters, while Hispanic Catholics are a much faster growing portion of the population -- but have notoriously low turnout rates. Therefore, both parties are attempting to appeal to new Hispanic immigrants, who may be the key to capturing a majority of the Catholic vote in future elections.

CONCLUSION: Catholics were traditionally an important Democratic constituency, but have leaned increasingly toward the Republican Party since the 1980s. White Catholics are an important component of suburban Republican support, while new Hispanic immigrants tend to back the Democrats. Catholic voters embody the current political divide. Capturing the majority of the Catholic vote in national elections -- and in many local polls -- has become a prerequisite for victory.

[Torie]

Is this about Anglo Catholics, or all Catholics?

[Salvation]

The first part talked about the difference in voting patterns between different groups of Catholics so I think it is about all Catholics.

[right-wingin_It]

The key to understanding the Catholic breakdown and elections isn't about "how many Catholics the politician can cater too" or in the reverse, how many Catholics identify with a Republican or Democrat. Instead, it has to do with how many faithfull churchgoing Catholics that the politician can attract, as it has been studied many times that these folks are the ones who actually go out and vote.

[narses]

+

[Torie]

That introduces a lot of noise into the equation. Bush did very well, uniquely well, among Hispanics, in 2004, although much of that was due to Protestant Hispanics, about 40% of Hispanics voters in the US, yes 40%. Amoung Hispanic Catholics, Bush maybe got about 25%. With Protestant Hispanics, it was more like 60%.

[Salvation]

So true!

[RKBA Democrat]

Well, I'm a Virginian and a Catholic, so I guess I qualify.

The big news in Virginia politics is the election of a Democratic governor. One who happens to be Roman Catholic. His name is Tim Kaine, and he did spend time as a missionary in I think it was Honduras.

I noticed another poster saying that he's pro-abortion: to my knowledge, he's not pro-abortion, and as LT Governor was working with conservative Republican Senators to introduce pro-life legislation. (the LT Governor in Virginia can't introduce legislation on his own). From what I can tell, his perspective on the issue is that abortion is legal and there's nothing much he himself can do about that, but he can try to reduce the number of abortions in Virginia.

In my opinion, Tim Kaine is a liberal Democrat, but a reasonably devout Catholic. The two are not mutually exclusive, and in truth, it does get tiresome after awhile to see conservatives doing their best to argue otherwise or that the GOP is somehow the party favored by God.

I don't agree with Tim Kaine's politics, but conversely I don't suggest that his political point of view is inherently anti-Catholic or irreconcilable with Catholic religious teachings.

[Salvation]

Interesting numbers.