GERMANY'S NEW OUTLOOK. Friendlier Transatlantic Relations Likely Under Chancellor Merkel

Angela Merkel's new coalition government in Germany provides a sudden silver lining for the dark clouds that have descended over the Bush presidency. It will now be easier for Washington to work with Berlin and the European Union.

That change could also help reduce the poisonous anti-American sentiments that pervade international politics. Those sentiments seemed to surface in this year's Nobel peace and literature prizes, which served to remind President Bush of his international unpopularity.

The German silver lining is fragile: Merkel must still gain parliamentary approval for her Cabinet. And the success of U.S. foreign policy over the next three years lies to a great extent with other nations and politicians, rather than with new American initiatives.

Bush, his political team and his military establishment are stretched to their limits by a blinding variety of challenges and disasters. As a result, the president must increasingly depend on opportunities created by others -- the Iraqi people voting on a constitution and a new government, the Europeans negotiating to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Merkel forming a "grand coalition" of her conservative forces and the Social Democrats they narrowly beat in the Sept. 18 elections.

The decision last week by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to end his bitter rear-guard campaign to stay in office helps. True to form, Schroeder peppered his withdrawal statement with castigation of Bush and American values, his favorite targets from the stump in two election campaigns.

The weights in the German foreign policy changed completely during the last 8 years and I predict that this will not change at all. The most obvious sign for keeping the course is the appeal of Frank-Walter Steinmeier as foreign minister. Steinmeier belongs to the close inner circle around Schroeder and represents his "heritage" in the new administration. Since Merkel is obvouisly the weakest chancellor ever since WWII (her colleagues in the administration Stoiber and Muentefering already annotated in the public that she has no authority in their ministries...), I doubt that she has big influence here.

Steinmeier is pro-Russia and quite critical towards the US. It is known that he rejects all forms of German involvement inside Iraq. Therefore Kwasniewski's dreams of a new international force with a German presence are really unrealistic. On the other hand Steinmeier is not that blinded from ideologic BS like Fischer and Schroeder.

To be true it is also clear, that the new "friendship" between Russia and Germany has strategic reasons. The fact that Russia will be one of our most important markets and for sure our most important supplier of energy and raw materials makes those relations that important. On the other hand the partnership between the US and western Europe looses importance, since the US on their part are re-positioning themselves in the middle and far east. Since the cold war is over there is no common enemy to share for America and Europe anymore. This is something that Merkel can't deny.

Another factor in the game are the French, who will use the weakness of Merkel to control the German foreign policy. Since France is by far the most important German partner (everything else would be a lie) they have tremendous influence. The weak outcome of Merkel in her elections make Sarkoszy a really powerful man. It is good to know that he is -in difference to this moron Chirac- a rational man.

The question will be if Russia can be changed to a real and prosperous democracy. If this mission can be accomplished (to use G.W.B. words) Europe as a whole will have a bright future since a large "domestic market" with Russia on one side as a supplier for cheap energy and raw materials and Europe as a supplier for technology and goods on the other side could be formed.

The funny thing is: Poland is in between. :-)

P.S. I think the best the Poles can do is to keep all possibilities open. Cultivate your close relations to the US (maybe you need them one day) and continue to get Russia into the right direction.

The Germans are screwed (lewd simple version)!

They have a locked up powerless administration that can’t push through any reforms. A socialist undertone society as witness by the last elections. Their new found French buddies showed them already what they “really” think of Europe; as witnessed during the vote on the EU constitution. Turkey will gain in influence in the EU and may eventually join in (next 10 years). Their Russian connection will go nowhere, just as the Korean unification is a pipe dream. Putin and those in power in Russia have -NO- intentions in more reforms and prefer the status quo. Russia has made no significant changes in policy towards democracy (political), economic, reforms in the last few years.

Examples: Mysterious firms pop up and buy out major energy producers. Freedom of press has been REDUCED and the freedom of information restricted……..

Look at how Schroeder pandered to the Turkish vote in Germany! The Turkish influence in Germany is real. This too is only growing. Wait until Turkey is an EU member! Growing population and over 70,000,000 today already with over 3,000,000 and 600,000 voting Turks already, the Turkish voice will be more powerful than ever.

The Germans are “strategically” in a very bad position. Economically they have made themselves dependent on Russian energy (Natural gas primarily). But Russia has already played the “price war” with them and frankly if things go sour in the future they will play that card at the snap of their fingers. Germany is making itself dependent on a “single source” in natural gas from Russia. There is little diversification and management of risk. I believe the Germans are already procuring nearly 40% of their natural gas from one source alone (Russia). Over time the German dependence on natural gas from this single source will grow.

The Germans were so proud when their Euro overtook the dollar in value. Then when it did they spoke of the US conspiracy to affect trade with currency manipulation! Fact is, despite their still good trade balance, the currency exchange rates are already impacting Germany.

The reasons for the high unemployment and lack of economic growth in Germany are “structural” in nature. Unlike frictional or cyclical unemployment and economic hiccups, the issues Germany face are more long term in nature. The truth is that there is no real change in subsidies, no real change in tax systems or load, there won’t be much of anything changing in the next years. The German economy will remain stagnant.

The balancing act of the past is gone. In the past Germany managed risk fairly well. They had one leg in the boat with the US and one in Europe with the French/British/Italians/Spain. Today the Germans can’t manage risk anymore. Just like with their energy policy, EADS is the German hope for all future defense projects. All eggs are in one basket!

Example of risk management: If Germany had not granted over flight rights while it would have been painful, we would have managed, reference Iraq. Why? We have bases in Italy, Spain and Great Britain that can carry the load. In fact, we probably could deal with it if all of Europe said “No” since we had a Pacific option. It’s all about managing risk. The Germans in defense issues no longer have this luxury. Schroeder in the last few years basically put the Germans in one boat which if it sinks, they’re done.

Germany has never shown to have much strategic vision. In the past they fought two world words that were strategic with tactical systems. Where were the German long range bombers to bomb Britain? The German carriers? The German Liberty ships or even just a mobility command to logistically sustain the East front in Russia? Even today the Germans think on a regional and tactical level in the politics and military. They like to sound intellectual and throw words like “strategic” around, but have no clue as to their application or real meaning. Strategically the Germans have “screwed themselves”.

Unfortunately for Merkel is that she does not have a needed mandate. Her party lacks the "balls" to really take a hard line approach Reagan style. The issues plaguing Germany are larger than her or even what her party can handle; especially with lack of aggressiveness. Germany will remain in its slump economically and has made some poor strategic decisions for which it may pay in the future.

Germany is LOOOOOOSING in influence politically, economically and militarily. My insulting joke two years ago is coming true. France will dictate the tone to Germany. As Germany looses influence in Europe, France will expand to fill the vacuum.

Red6

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