Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[M. Dodge Thomas]

IMO, one of best sources for answers to a lot of the questions being asked here is Jeff Master’s weather blog, he's already got several pages of exceptionally well informed commentary on Wilma up at:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[M. Dodge Thomas]

IMO, one of best sources for answers to a lot of the questions being asked here is Jeff Master’s weather blog, he's already got several pages of exceptionally well informed commentary on Wilma up at:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[janetjanet998]

Storm surge is very complex and we are still learning..the main factor is wind speed but other factors include, low pressure, high or low tide,the size of the storm, the shape of the coast line, a weakening hurricane versus a strengthing one..the angle it hits the coast line and yes storm speed..the faster the storm is moving the higher the surge in the right front quad..if fact it may the the 2nd or 3rd most important thing in the factors above

[steveegg]

Presser up now.

[sheikdetailfeather]

WFTV just said they DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR WIND DAMAGE IN MELBOURNE OR OSCEOLA, just tropical storm force winds. They are also advising that if it does not make the sharp turn as anticipated, or if the turn is curved, Central Fla. could get more than just tropical storm force gusts and rain. Their graphic shows it coming in as a 4.

[M. Dodge Thomas]

IMO, one of best sources for answers to a lot of the questions being asked here is Jeff Master’s weather blog, he's already got several pages of exceptionally well informed commentary on Wilma up at:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[M. Dodge Thomas]

IMO, one of best sources for answers to a lot of the questions being asked here is Jeff Master’s weather blog, he's already got several pages of exceptionally well informed commentary on Wilma up at:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[steveegg]

Thanks. I trust that answers your question, KC.

[Paradox]

Yes and know. The net wind speed is the sum of the rotational speed, plus the addition or subtraction of the forward motion. For example, Hurricane Andrew was rotating at about 165 mph, traveling due east at about 20 mph. For the poor bastards that got the northern eye wall (moi included), we got nearly 185mph winds. The folks to the south of us in Homestead got 145mph winds. The maximum surge in my area was 17 feet. Down in Homestead, it was about 6-8 feet.

[AFPhys]

thanks

[steveegg]

Jeff has one of the best lines yet so far - "It's amazing the hurricane hunters were even able to penetrate the eye--it's really tough to hit a 2 mile wide eye when you're flying crabbed over at a 30 degree yaw angle fighting horizontal flight level winds of 185 mph and severe turbulence."

I'm proud of the Hunters. Go Air Force!

[TruthNtegrity]

Hi Taxman. I'd really like to be back in No. VA about now.

I didn't know I was moving to "hurricane alley" over here in the panhandle!

I didn't experience Cindy at all but did get outer rings of Dennis and just got the roof repaired.

Here we go again!

[proud American in Canada]

I have a question--how in the world do these guys fly airplanes into the eye of a hurricane without getting shredded by the storm? It seems completely impossible.

I have to take off but will return later and will reply to any replies then.

[KC Burke]

Thanks gang. Slowed by the DNS attack of Soros flying monkeys or not, this is still the best site on the web.

[Sam Cree]

Like I said, your point was well taken.

What gets me is that back in the 70's and 80's, when we were still in the low activity cycle, the director of the NHC in those days, Neil Frank, constantly issued dire warnings of what the future would bring if millions of people continued moving into vulnerable coastal areas with no thought to hurricane preparedness.

Well, now it's 20 years later, nobody listened, but his warnings were right. But you don't hear anyone talking about the fact that everyone knew what would eventually happen, you just hear lots of name calling, lots of finger pointing, lots of promises and demands for cash by everyone from the president on down.

Yeah, I have had occasion to weather a major hurricane, though the neighborhood was wrecked, everyone cooperated and survived pretty well pretty much on their own.

Anyhow, best of luck to you if this one comes near your Orlando.

[yield 2 the right]

is just me , should the famous: "Stuck on Stupid" used?

[KC Burke]

I see a 55,000 foot storm top in NW Oklahoma out by the panhandle. Anyone want to fly a kite out there today?

[Paradox]

Yes and know. The net wind speed is the sum of the rotational speed, plus the addition or subtraction of the forward motion. For example, Hurricane Andrew was rotating at about 165 mph, traveling due east at about 20 mph. For the poor bastards that got the northern eye wall (moi included), we got nearly 185mph winds. The folks to the south of us in Homestead got 145mph winds. The maximum surge in my area was 17 feet. Down in Homestead, it was about 6-8 feet.

Ummm, no silly, that was 20mph due WEST. Thus the winds of the northern eye wall were "faster" (in a counter-clockwise storm) than the southern eye wall.

[AFPhys]

"I remember seeing some video clips of what went on in a hurricane hunter plane as they were flying in towards the eye. NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS!"
--->

LOL... when I was in the AF, I actually requested that I be assigned to a WC130 (or WC135) ... the "hurricane hunters" ... I would have absolutely loved such an assignment, but alas, none were assigned to my class. Sigh.

Yup - there really are people who consider this type of job the highest form of adventure!

I had to reconcile myself with chasing tornados on the ground ... lol.