Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[steveegg]

Good night, Crazieman

[Termite_Commander]

INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY

Never seen that before. I suppose it wouldn't be much fun flying in a big lumbering turboprop though through the worst part of a Cat 4/5 hurricane. =)

[HoHoeHeaux]

Thanks to both of you. I feel a little better now. But it's amazing what this storm has accomplished these past hours. Hoping for the best for my Florida friends and family. You guys are right. Lots can happen between now and the weekend.

[NormsRevenge]

Hurricane Wilma Strengthens; Fla. Gets Set

By MITCH STACY, Associated Press Writer

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/wilma_florida;_ylt=AuJCwOUndIE.NDS77.L45S2Cbpwv;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl


PUNTA GORDA, Fla. - Having seen what Katrina and other storms have done in the past year or so, Floridians began buying water and canned goods Tuesday after watching Wilma strengthen into a hurricane.

Although the storm was not expected to approach Florida until the weekend, residents began buying supplies early. Many said they take every storm seriously now, after witnessing the devastation from a succession of hurricanes that have ravaged the southern United States.

"People have learned their lesson and know better how to prepare. We're not waiting until the last minute anymore," said Andrea Yerger, 48, of Port Charlotte. She was buying material to protect her house, which had to be gutted because of extensive damage from Hurricane Charley last year.

Wilma became a Category 4 hurricane early Wednesday with top sustained winds of near 150 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Wilma was expected to strengthen on a path that could threaten coastal areas like Punta Gorda in southwestern Florida that were hit by Charley, a Category 4 storm that was the first of six hurricanes to strike the state since August 2004.

Computer models showed Wilma possibly making a sharp turn and bearing down on Florida over the weekend.

"When this storm makes the turn, it's going to start moving very quickly. So people need to get their supplies now. It's a good time to beat the rush," said hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart.

Many Punta Gorda homes and businesses have been rebuilt in a construction boom, but some are still boarded up. More than 6,800 federal trailers and mobile homes remain scattered around the state as temporary housing from the six storms, with 934 in Charlotte County alone.

Gov. Jeb Bush said Floridians must be thinking, "Why us? ... It's just something we're going to have to live with and prepare for."

The state routinely replenishes emergency supplies of water, food and ice at staging points across Florida, so no additional action is needed, emergency management spokesman Mike Stone said.

Florida supermarkets and home-repair chains stocked extra food, ice and other supplies ahead of an expected onslaught in stores.

"I think since Katrina, everyone is more apprehensive about the situation as far as hurricanes go," said Pat Schmidt, 74, a retiree from Port Charlotte who was buying jugs of water and canned goods at a supermarket.

Wilma made history before hitting land. It is the 12th hurricane of the season, the same number reached in 1969, the highest since record-keeping began in 1851. It is also the 21st named storm, tying the record set in 1933.

The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30. Wilma is the last on the 21-name list for storms this year. If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used for the first time, starting with Alpha.

So far this year, the Atlantic has had as many hurricanes as in two normal seasons. There are 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes in the average season.

"I hope people aren't too worried. It's not time to panic. It's time to prepare," said Sandra Mallory, 68, of Port Charlotte.

___

On the Net:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

[MikefromOhio]

That is fairly rare...

they probably went "Oh $h!t" when the dropsonde came back with 901 MB.....

[steveegg]

This thing has just hit a case on the Beer meter. Another 6 mph and we'll have a keg.

[Termite_Commander]

I'd bet. How would one correlate how low they were flying in relation to their flight level and the dropsounde reading? Or is that impossible to tell?

[Strategerist]

There are no tracks remotely near Louisiana.

There's been a slight model shift so that now Wilma does make landfall at Cozumel/Cancun in the Yucatan before rapidly zooming NE into Southwest Florida; the tracks into Florida haven't changed at all really, but it now gets quite a bit further West before turning NE.

[geopyg]

I talked to my Mom who has a condo (upper floor highrise) on the beach in Naples to have someone move her car to higher ground (she's up north). She said "now I'll be up all night worried about that". She already has a guy that washes the car and drives it a little to keep it from sitting too long. I told her to have him park it at the church parking lot 6-blocks inland. "Well then he'll need to have a ride back, oh - what will I do?!" (Have him walk back or take a cab). She likes to worry. Glad this update wasn't out yet!

Prayers that Wilma will die down and/or hit sparsely populated areas. And prayers of thanksgiving that my mom is 2000 miles from Naples at the moment!! (It takes her at least a week to "close up" her place when she leaves!)

[Unmarked Package]

I have a question... why does the projected path veer so far to the east, whereas if you project out the curve of the actual path, it would head north-by-northwest?

There is a storm front (low pressure front) currently over the west coast of the USA that is expected to move rapidly to the east during the week and meet up with Wilma on Friday or Saturday. The NHC forecast models predict this storm front will steer Wilma to the northeast.

[MikefromOhio]

I'm not an expert, but I thought the altimeter in the plane used a measure of outside pressure to determine the flight level?

I am sure someone knows, but I think it might have something to do with that....

[steveegg]

Thanks for the title update.

[buickmackane]

Speaking of beer, I just came across a funny video in a link from another weather board. It's a parody of those Bud Light "Real Men of Genius" commercials, this time about an excited-about-the-storm-weatherman -- check it out for a good chuckle:

http://www.fox19.com/global/video/popup/pop_index.asp?ClipID1=284793&h1

[metmom]

I remember seeing some video clips of what went on in a hurricane hunter plane as they were flying in towards the eye. NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS! I couldn't believe the plane wasn't broken up with the way those guys were getting thrown around.

[Strategerist]

Something similar happened to a NOAA aircraft in the first recon of Hurricane Hugo east of the Carribean in 1988; they thought it was a Cat 3 and it was a Cat 5; they came in too low, got knocked around badly and lost an engine; very close to crashing.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hugo1.asp

[NormsRevenge]

This sucker sure kicked in a gear or two real quick.. Here's a historical shot of past hurricanes.

[conservativepoet]

I wish your family the best, and I also hope Wilma decides to relax. She's a little too intense even for a hurricane.

[Termite_Commander]

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 15a


Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on October 19, 2005



...Wilma becomes an extremely dangerous hurricane...

a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Punta gruesa.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of Wilma.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 17.0 north...longitude 82.2 west or about 170 miles...
270 km...south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about 400 miles...640
km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. The hurricane could become a category
five hurricane today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 155 miles...250 km. NOAA buoy 42057 recently reported a wind gust
to near 60 mph...96 km/hr.

Latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was is 901 mb...26.61 inches.

Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...17.0 N... 82.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure...901 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[dc-zoo]

Pressure dropped like a rock. This is fricken unbelievable.

[steveegg]

'Tis a good thing I hesitated on the regularily-scheduled 2 am intermediate advisory; we don't need 2 of those around :-)