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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I see the tracks have come back to a Florida smack, and that damn LBAR still won't give up on your neck of the woods even as everything else has Wilma headed for south Florida.
That would be you and me both. I reside in the Cape, too. Stay safe!
My guess is that it would hold up better and hit as a 2 or 3 considering how much weakening it has to do. The problem is that we can't rerun it as a three to test the question. I remember some 5's that were heading towards LA last year I believe (the names all tend to run together after a while) which weakened dramatically JUST before landfall.
A question of my own... Has Wilma increased in size or is it my imagination? I remember reading earlier that it was very tight with hurricane force winds extending only a short distance from the eye. It looks pretty big to me now.
Damn. Good luck; the consensus has you right in the crosshairs (I don't think it really ever left).
I've got a book with a recipe for cobbler in it - will have to give it a shot once I've reacquired some skill with the dutch oven. My first project with the oven is going to be a batch of bison chili - I've got a can of bison meat that I picked up earlier this year at the Alafia Rendezvous, and I've just been waiting for the right time and occassion to put it to use. That'll be in a couple of days, when I've set up my camp in NC.
Earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Wilma had a central pressure of 892 mb inside the 4 N mi wide eye...along with 700 mb flight-level winds of 140-150 kt. Since that time...satellite imagery shows that the eye has become cloud-filled. Additionally...a 00z SSM/I overpass shows that the inner eyewall has weakened as a 40 N mi wide outer eyewall becomes better defined. Based on this...the initial intensity is decreased to 135 kt. The next aircraft is scheduled to investigate Wilma around 05z-06z. The initial motion is a very wobbly 300/7. In the short term...a low/mid-level ridge north of Wilma should steer the hurricane on a generally northwestward track toward the Yucatan Peninsula. After 24-36 hr...the ridge should weaken as a shortwave trough moves through the eastern United States...followed by the development of a powerful deep-layer trough over the eastern U. S.. the first shortwave should allow Wilma to turn northward...while the stronger trough should eventually recurve the storm into the westerlies. The latest runs of the GFDL and GFS have returned to their earlier no-stall recurvature scenario...thus increasing the agreement between the models through 72-96 hr. However...the entire suite of guidance is slower for the first 96 hr than the earlier runs. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the left for the first 48 hr...then is slower than the previous forecast from 48-96 hr. However...even this slower forecast is faster than the guidance. It should also be noted that the track is along the right side of the guidance envelope...a little to the right of the model consensus. Wilma should undergo an eyewall replacement cycle during the next 12-24 hr. The first 36 hr of the intensity forecast is based on the premise that Wilma will re-intensify when the cycle is over. There is a chance Wilma could weaken more than currently forecast before the eyewall cycle ends. The SHIPS model is forecasting a significant increase in vertical shear once Wilma reaches the the Gulf of Mexico. That combined with cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a gradual weakening. That being said...Wilma is still expected to reach Florida as a major hurricane. After passage over Florida...Wilma should continue to weaken due to shear and even cooler water. There are two possibilities that could make large differences in the intensity of Wilma. The first is the possibility of landfall over Yucatan or the interaction with the peninsula in the forecast close approach. A landfall would result in a weaker storm...while interaction could weaken the system more than currently forecast. The second is possible extratropical transition and phasing with the deep trough after 96 hr. Should this happen...Wilma could become a powerful storm either over the western Atlantic or the northeastern U. S.. forecaster Beven forecast positions and Max winds initial 20/0300z 18.1n 84.3w 135 kt 12hr VT 20/1200z 18.8n 85.2w 135 kt 24hr VT 21/0000z 19.8n 86.0w 145 kt 36hr VT 21/1200z 20.8n 86.5w 145 kt 48hr VT 22/0000z 21.8n 86.6w 125 kt 72hr VT 23/0000z 24.0n 84.5w 110 kt 96hr VT 24/0000z 27.0n 80.0w 80 kt 120hr VT 25/0000z 38.0n 70.5w 65 kt
Please keep us posted of your storm plans.
Wind field has expanded with hurricane force extending out 70 miles now.
Cheers for Cape support! Thank you! Have to apologize for my horrendous typing, it's been a long day, but my best to you and you stay safe as well!!
According to tonight's 11:00 p.m. advisory, the NHC is forecasting Wilma to come back to a Category 5 tomorrow (165 mph). Hope they're wrong.
I grew up in Cape Coral, my parents still live there. I'm in Tampa now. They were hit pretty hard with Charley - and it was one of the worst 12 hours of my life not knowing what was going on with them. Hopefully this one will not directly hit Punta Gorda/Cape Coral/Fort Myers - there are so many homes that have still not been repaired. Let alone the hundreds of FEMA trailers still at the Charlotte County airport. Stay safe.
I think they got pounded with Gilbert in 88.
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200524_model.gif
Are you suggesting that the hurricane brought 'something' in?
My dad and many old-timers around here swear that Fredric, 1979, brought something they call a coffee weed in with it. It's still here but, they say it wasn't before.
Those people will have to be evacuated. FEMA should haul the trailers out of there too.
Just as an FYI. Looks like the cold front is coming on strong here within the next hour or so. Little bit of a change since this was supposed to be a "dry" front with no weather along the edge. Now I'm going to need to monitor for severe weather. Sigh! I live about 10 miles due north of Duncan so we may get it worse than Duncan does.
I can see the lightning west of me but not hear the thunder yet.
Special Weather Statement (Expires: Wednesday October 19 10:15PM CDT)
National Weather Service Alert Details
Special Weather Statement
(Expires: Wednesday October 19 10:15PM CDT)
special weather statement
national weather service norman ok
1007 pm cdt wed oct 19 2005
stephens ok-
1007 pm cdt wed oct 19 2005
...significant weather advisory...
this significant weather advisory is for stephens county.
a severe thunderstorm was located 16 miles west of empire city at
1007 pm cdt...moving northeast at 55 mph. if this storm maintains
intensity...50 to 60 mph winds will enter northwest stephens county
by 1020 pm.
storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
people in stephens county...including the city of duncan...should
monitor the weather situation closely. listen for warnings and remain
alert for threatening weather conditions.
2 of my daughters were from Port Arthur... one evacuated out & another one stayed, and 2 days later went to Austin. The rest of us were in Hemphill (from South of Houston). We all didn't get back together until almost 2 weeks after the storm. We all have it. Has nothing to do with schools... all were in different areas. Guess it was just all the stuff blowing around... and nerves. I am the only one with nauseau. 2 of us have run fevers. Odd, we were in different places and came down with the same stuff.
Sorry - this is SW Ok.
and just heard first thunder.
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