Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[tutstar]

LOL

You have your opinion fwiw.

[laz]

The storm surge map here shows surge in the Miami area:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/

I think Miami Beach and Key Biscayne could get some.

[Diddle E. Squat]

The site was made by the University of Central Florida. They collaborated with the University of Minnesota on the mapping system. The damage estimate thing is neat, but hasn't seemed to be super accurate based on what I have seen. It's good for a general idea in that area though.

So which way does the accuracy error lean, overpredicting the area of damage, or underpredicting?

Also, do you see any scenario where Wilma somehow winds up hitting the upper TX coast?

[FlJoePa]

"Storm surge isn't an issue for the east coast of Fl. with this storm."

Well...sure, but it still can be an issue. If you live east of the Intracoastal, I'd consider it an issue. Not to mention East of Lake O. Also those on the North side of the storm on the East coast will see some storm surge. How much? Depends on the winds.

Looking at the latest infra-reds, it appears this storm might explode again tonight and the pressure may drop well below it's record of 882mb. Lots of gray cloud tops around it right now.

[floriduh voter]

It looks like Floridians are cancelling lots of stuff. I cancelled some stuff myself. After four last year, I pretty much was really scared then. If it really starts heading this way, I'll get really scared again. It's hard to look out the window and watch trees and debris go by.

Maybe Wilma won't set any more records. I like my roof.

[Sam Cree]

I think it would have to either hit Miami fairly directly, or come in to the south of Miami for us to get much surge here. I guess that is the assumption the chart is working with, though.

The surge in So Dade from Andrew was impressive.

[nwctwx]

Underpredicting... moreso with monetary estimates than wind swath. Though, I see it is forecasting 14.5b in damage to FL... That seems a bit higher than what I have seen in the past. It way underpredicted Katrina, but I'm not sure anyone could have guessed just how costly that would be.

At some point, Canadian air will make it all the way to the Gulf next week... I don't see any way it would make it to TX.

[floriduh voter]

I saw that propane thing at Walmart. I was thinking more like a hibachi from the seventies. Hopefully, we won't lose power. We lost power for about three hours last year after Frances. That was long enough for me.

[blam]

"We also use our propane fish cooker... to heat water for cleaning. Even water caught during the storm is useful with a little bleach and heat! Save the good stuff for drinking! AND I keep clorox wipe ups on hand."

I did exactly the same thing when we were without electricity for 7 days after Katrina. My sister cooked an excellent spaghetti dinner outside after Katrina. Then gumbo, fried fish, etc.

[nwctwx]

Not sure it will restrengthen. The environment is still good up above the system, but moisture inflow is restricted on the south and west by land now.

[NautiNurse]

instead of 'Alpha' we name the next one algore

You may have something there. Hurricane Algore would lose strength, and put everyone in its path to sleep. We need sleep here in hurricane alley.

[laz]

The weakening today was probably due to EWRC. I wouldn't be surprised if she restrengthens overnight.

[cva66snipe]

I was just doing a search for something else and came across this site. It is a site about a ship that rescued some Vietnamese boat people in 1980. The Vietnamese are now grown and thanking the crew for their rescue. I was struck with the success of these rescued people: Master degree; CalPoly, college math professor, etc. Isn't America wonderful! (These people sure blow a hole in the welfare mindset, huh?)

Well one things for certain from their post they came here to be Americans. If other nations citizens came to this nation with that much drive a lot of fiscal issues would be resolved as well as a lot of resentment. We didn't have any rescues except for S&R for our own crew members. The closest thing we found to anything like that was an empty capsized dingy coming back from the VI's I think.

[metmom]

I know. I actually laughed my way through a bunch of it and it wasn't supposed to be funny.

[Conservababe]

Are you the same poster who today said that Florida deserved a disaster because the state had let Terri die?

[Diddle E. Squat]

Thanks.

[blam]

"The closest thing we found to anything like that was an empty capsized dingy coming back from the VI's I think."

I was there ('65-'67) as a civilian seven times after I got out of the Navy (USS Jallao - SS-368). No recsues necessary then.

[laz]

Hurricane Algore would spend an entire month after landfall demanding a recalculation of its intensity.

[Taxman]

Didn't use to be that way -- this spate of Hurricanes over the past few years is most unusual -- FRom what I can gather, it is a cyclic phenomena. If you don't get blown away in the next few years, then, you'll be OK for the next 10 years or so.

Hope this one leaves the panhandle (Rest of Florida, too, for that matter!) alone -- I am attending a Navy Squadron reunion in Pensacola the weekend of 29th, weather permitting!

[exhaustedmomma]

a hibachi from the seventies

:::snicker:::
well... all I can say is "garage sale" or... Big Lots. Hope you don't loose electricity long! Hoping this storm is downsized if it comes to ya'll! Been praying for Floridians since they started that "projected path."