Posted on 10/17/2005 5:22:43 PM PDT by RWR8189
Three weeks from Election Day and a turn in the polls as Democrat Tim Kaine for the first time takes the lead in our exclusive SurveyUSA tracking poll. The statewide poll, taken of 750 Virginians over the weekend, shows Kaine leading with 47% of the vote. Republican Jerry Kilgore has 45%. Trailing far behind is independent candidate Russ Potts with 4%. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%, meaning the race is a statistical dead heat.
But our tracking does show a steady climb for Kaine. In March and June Kilgore was ahead by 10 points. By August the lead was smaller, Kilgore at 48% to Kaine's 43%. And last month Kilgore was leading by three points.
A Kaine spokesperson says Virginians are fed up with what they call Kilgore's negative campaign. Mo Elleithee, Kaine's communications director said, "People want someone with a positive agenda and someone who will keep Virginia moving forward. The voters are not responding well to Jerry Kilgore."
That Kilgore campaign of late has included a series verbal jabs made during last week's only statewide televised debate and a series of hard-hitting attack ads focusing primarily on Kaine's position on the death penalty and taxes. In almost all their attack ads, the Kilgore campaign has labeled Tim Kaine too liberal to lead the Commonwealth.
Newschannel 10 Political Analyst Dr. Bob Denton says the tone of Kilgore's campaign could be the problem.
"When campaigns get to intense and too much attack and too negative... that we may start seeing a backlash from the general electorate," Dr. Denton said.
Denton believes this is basically an issue-less, personality driven campaign, with the voters asking, "Are they nice? Are they mean? Are they like me? And I think the campaign of Kilgore is being painted as someone who is indeed mean-spirited and going too negative."
Kilgore's press secretary, Tim Murtaugh, says, "We have always known this would be a close race. We take nothing for granted and will campaign as if we were 10 points down."
But with a race this tight, it is unlikely that either side is going to let up.
Seems like the trend has been toward Kaine recently.
Polls are usually correct close to an election.
They're showing a dead heat in Virginia, that's what its going to be.
This dope sounds like Mario Cuomo, with a southern twang.
my guess what happens is that Potts supporters come home, but barely. There is still about 8-12% undecided.
Kilgore has upset many conservative Republicans in Virginia with his refusal to answer simple questions about gun control and abortion.
If Kilgore loses, it will be do to his hubris and campaign worker's ineptitude in alienating his base.
I agree. These numbers are not looking good. There has been an unfortunate trend towards Kaine.
Geographically, I wonder where Kaine's number are coming from. I'm tempted to think Northern Virginia where undecideds may be turning towards Kaine.
Kilgore better hope for a great turnout in Tidewater, Southside and the Valley...and hold his own in Northern Virginia.
Wait - what about some of the other poll info - were these registered voters, likely voters, or just adults? Also how many democrats and republicans? Is this in the article I missed it. Also - Ross Potts at 4! ROTFLOL
this survey usa organization are full garbage and suspect.
this same liberal group had Jeb Bush losing in 2002
by 3 points . Well Jeb won by 57 to 41.
The dirty little secret is with the introduction of cell phones , these polls are nonsense. The over sample the crowd with out cell line which
are democrats !
Jerry Kilgore endorsed by the Virginia Society for Human Life PAC
This race is definitely close, and I'm not impressed with the campaign Kilgore is running. They really need to be hammering the Kaine as liberal here in SW VA because Kilgore needs to score big here to offset northern VA and Tidewater.
But I don't trust Jay Warren. He is much too gleeful when touting Dems successes. I need the details of this "poll".
Weekend Polls favor Democrats. We Virginia Republicans have better things to do than sit at home over the weekend waiting for the pollster to call. ;-)
Kilgore is running an awful campaign - he deserves to lose.
He may win in end as Kaine has no platform either.
Kilgore ping.
Not the news we wanted, but it's not time to rearrange the deck chairs just yet.
1) It's a weekend poll.
2) It probably does not capture the affects of the death penalty ads.
3) We knew it was going to be close.
I had hoped (and predicted) it would be a blowout by now. Obviously I missed that one. But I'm still cautiously optimistic.
I'd hate to see a third party candidate-of dubious credentials-sink a good Republican's shot at the governorship.
Well this is great news for the me-o-cons. Now they won't have to wait till 06 to start punishing Bush and the rest of us. /sarcasm
Not really. The GOP was split in the primary for North and he barely pulled it out at the convention. Because Marshall Coleman had the support of John Warner, he polled higher. In that case, he did make the difference and Robb won.
I don't think anybody views Potts as that credible and in the ballot box, he may not even pull the 4%.
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