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Tropical Storm Wilma Live Thread
NOAA - NHC ^ | 17 October 2005 | NOAA - NHC

Posted on 10/17/2005 1:39:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The 2005 hurricane season continues to alter the record books. Tropical Storm Wilma has formed in the Caribbean Sea.

NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions

Storm Floater IR Loop


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: hurricane; notagain; notthisagain; tropical; weather; wilma
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To: bwteim

I don't like that forecast.


61 posted on 10/17/2005 7:25:09 AM PDT by blam
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To: NautiNurse

Yikes, just when you thought it was safe to put away your beautiful flowered plywood...


62 posted on 10/17/2005 7:27:05 AM PDT by agrace (Where were you when I founded the earth? Tell me if you know so much. Job 38:4)
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To: NautiNurse

One thing I'll say about Franklin; he's quick to release the whole suite of products. The 11 am suite of products are already out.


63 posted on 10/17/2005 7:42:02 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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Tropical Storm Wilma Advisory Number 8

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 17, 2005

 
...Wilma strengthening...Tropical Storm Warning issued for
Honduras...

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Honduras has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward
to Cabo camaron.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was
located near latitude 16.3 north... longitude 80.0 west or about
220 miles... 355 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about
230 miles... 370 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.

 
Wilma is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph ... 7 km/hr...and a
gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane by tomorrow.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to  70 miles
...110 km...mainly to the south of the center.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  998 mb...29.47 inches.

 
The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated
amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible.

 
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...16.3 N... 80.0 W.  Movement
toward...southwest near  5 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 998 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

64 posted on 10/17/2005 7:45:19 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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Tropical Storm Wilma Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 17, 2005

 
The development trend that we have been anticipating for a couple of
days is underway.  Deep convection is being maintained very near
and south of the circulation center...with banding features
developing near the center in the southwest quadrant.  Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were t3.0/45 kt...and a Quikscat
pass at 12z suggests winds are also 40-45 kt.  The advisory
intensity is conservatively increased to 40 kt...and I expect
stronger winds when the reconnaissance aircraft arrives early this
afternoon.  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable for
continued strengthening and there has been little change to the
official intensity forecast.

Wilma drove southward overnight but a westward component seems to
have returned...and the initial motion is estimated to be 235/4. 
Model guidance has been extraordinarily inconsistent from run to
run and there is presently a huge spread in the guidance.  What is
most puzzling is that the models that best anticipated the
southward motion overnight...the GFDL and the GFS...are way out
there on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope with a track
over western Cuba and into the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. 
The UKMET...NOGAPS...and ECMWF take Wilma into various parts of the
Yucatan Peninsula.  There are important differences in the amount
of mid-level ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico in these
models that is affecting the ability of Wilma to connect with the
westerlies near the end of the forecast period.  While it is
tempting to adjust the track to the right based on the recent
changes with the GFS and GFDL models...the fact that the 6z runs of
both models were initialized a bit too far north may mean that they
are too fast with the recurvature scenario.  For now...I have made
little change to the official forecast.  Clearly...confidence at
the longer ranges is unusually low.  While the southward motion
overnight now requires a Tropical Storm Warning for
Honduras...given the uncertainties in track as well as the size of
the cyclonic envelope...it is a little premature to lower the watch
and warning for the Cayman Islands.

 
Forecaster Franklin

 

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      17/1500z 16.3n  80.0w    40 kt
 12hr VT     18/0000z 16.2n  80.6w    50 kt
 24hr VT     18/1200z 16.3n  81.5w    60 kt
 36hr VT     19/0000z 16.5n  82.6w    70 kt
 48hr VT     19/1200z 17.0n  83.7w    80 kt
 72hr VT     20/1200z 18.5n  85.5w    90 kt
 96hr VT     21/1200z 20.0n  86.5w    95 kt
120hr VT     22/1200z 22.5n  87.5w    95 kt

 

 
$$

65 posted on 10/17/2005 7:47:33 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: minmospop

Just FYI..


66 posted on 10/17/2005 8:28:55 AM PDT by lsee
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for setting up the live thread once again.


67 posted on 10/17/2005 8:35:22 AM PDT by LikeLight
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To: bwteim
Here's 117 hours (about 5 days) out forecast from Tropical Storm Risk.com

North Carolina looks safe for now.

68 posted on 10/17/2005 8:37:03 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

ARRRRRGH! I haven't got all my stuff put back from the Rita evacuation. I guess I'll just leave it 200 miles away until I know Hurricane season is over.


69 posted on 10/17/2005 8:44:47 AM PDT by wildbill
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To: NautiNurse

For now... ;)
You're not kidding


70 posted on 10/17/2005 8:44:57 AM PDT by bwteim (Begin With The End In Mind)
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To: Nita Nupress

Me too...GO WEST GO WEST...LOL! I can't go thru another one. This year has been pure hell.


71 posted on 10/17/2005 9:07:03 AM PDT by goresalooza (Nurses Rock!)
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To: sure_fine
3 computor models are showing Clearwater/Tampa Bay as possible landfall. I know these models change every 6 hours, but it's looking like Western Florida ?

www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
72 posted on 10/17/2005 10:27:32 AM PDT by Orlando
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To: Orlando

Who's got the best water temp map again?


73 posted on 10/17/2005 10:49:51 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: Orlando

WFTV in Orlando said a strong trough is moving east towards Florida and therefore some models are based upon it being strong enough to move the storm our way as the high over us weakens this week. It all depends on how fast it moves and how strong it is. Right now it is a bit of guesswork.


74 posted on 10/17/2005 10:53:54 AM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (If you still vote Democrat, you're still stuck on stupid!)
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To: NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 8a

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on October 17, 2005

 
...Wilma moving slowly as it gathers strength...

 
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was
located near latitude 16.1 north... longitude 80.0 west or about
235 miles... 380 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about
225 miles... 365 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.

 
Wilma has drifted southward over the past few hours...but a
gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 24 hours. 
Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during
the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  50 mph... 80 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane tomorrow.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to  70 miles
...110 km...mainly to the south of the center.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  997 mb...29.44 inches.

 
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated
amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible.  Rainfall accumulations of 2 to
3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible
over Honduras.

 
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.1 N... 80.0 W.  Movement
toward...drifting south.  Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

75 posted on 10/17/2005 10:58:42 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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And in his haste to rush this out, Frankin has done yet another typographical error (which, in my haste to send this out, I repeated). In advisory 8, he misstated the rainfall estimated for Honduras; here, he screws up the restatement of maximum winds.


76 posted on 10/17/2005 11:02:59 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: NautiNurse

BTTT


77 posted on 10/17/2005 11:03:48 AM PDT by DocRock (Osama said, "We love death, the U.S. loves life, that is the main difference between us.")
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To: NautiNurse

I thought I heard this morning that the freak factor from Wilma has sent the price of oil up over a buck a barrel since Friday. Sigh.


78 posted on 10/17/2005 11:04:51 AM PDT by mewzilla (Property must be secured or liberty cannot exist. John Adams)
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To: steveegg
Getting steadily stronger, I see. Notice the pressure fell more than it did in previous updates. Of course, that may just be because the hurricane hunters got a direct reading this time, instead of estimates.
79 posted on 10/17/2005 11:06:25 AM PDT by Termite_Commander (Warning: Cynical Right-winger Ahead)
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To: Termite_Commander

The pressure is still an estimate. The hunters are out there (AF304 to be exact), but they haven't reported back on the pressure at the center.


80 posted on 10/17/2005 11:29:58 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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