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news thread - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1504567/posts |
Posted on 10/17/2005 1:39:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
I don't like that forecast.
Yikes, just when you thought it was safe to put away your beautiful flowered plywood...
One thing I'll say about Franklin; he's quick to release the whole suite of products. The 11 am suite of products are already out.
...Wilma strengthening...Tropical Storm Warning issued for Honduras...
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 16.3 north... longitude 80.0 west or about 220 miles... 355 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 230 miles... 370 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Wilma is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph ... 7 km/hr...and a gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane by tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km...mainly to the south of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.
The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...16.3 N... 80.0 W. Movement toward...southwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure... 998 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
The development trend that we have been anticipating for a couple of days is underway. Deep convection is being maintained very near and south of the circulation center...with banding features developing near the center in the southwest quadrant. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were t3.0/45 kt...and a Quikscat pass at 12z suggests winds are also 40-45 kt. The advisory intensity is conservatively increased to 40 kt...and I expect stronger winds when the reconnaissance aircraft arrives early this afternoon. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable for continued strengthening and there has been little change to the official intensity forecast.
Wilma drove southward overnight but a westward component seems to have returned...and the initial motion is estimated to be 235/4. Model guidance has been extraordinarily inconsistent from run to run and there is presently a huge spread in the guidance. What is most puzzling is that the models that best anticipated the southward motion overnight...the GFDL and the GFS...are way out there on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope with a track over western Cuba and into the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The UKMET...NOGAPS...and ECMWF take Wilma into various parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. There are important differences in the amount of mid-level ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico in these models that is affecting the ability of Wilma to connect with the westerlies near the end of the forecast period. While it is tempting to adjust the track to the right based on the recent changes with the GFS and GFDL models...the fact that the 6z runs of both models were initialized a bit too far north may mean that they are too fast with the recurvature scenario. For now...I have made little change to the official forecast. Clearly...confidence at the longer ranges is unusually low. While the southward motion overnight now requires a Tropical Storm Warning for Honduras...given the uncertainties in track as well as the size of the cyclonic envelope...it is a little premature to lower the watch and warning for the Cayman Islands.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/1500z 16.3n 80.0w 40 kt 12hr VT 18/0000z 16.2n 80.6w 50 kt 24hr VT 18/1200z 16.3n 81.5w 60 kt 36hr VT 19/0000z 16.5n 82.6w 70 kt 48hr VT 19/1200z 17.0n 83.7w 80 kt 72hr VT 20/1200z 18.5n 85.5w 90 kt 96hr VT 21/1200z 20.0n 86.5w 95 kt 120hr VT 22/1200z 22.5n 87.5w 95 kt
$$
Just FYI..
Thanks for setting up the live thread once again.
North Carolina looks safe for now.
ARRRRRGH! I haven't got all my stuff put back from the Rita evacuation. I guess I'll just leave it 200 miles away until I know Hurricane season is over.
For now... ;)
You're not kidding
Me too...GO WEST GO WEST...LOL! I can't go thru another one. This year has been pure hell.
Who's got the best water temp map again?
WFTV in Orlando said a strong trough is moving east towards Florida and therefore some models are based upon it being strong enough to move the storm our way as the high over us weakens this week. It all depends on how fast it moves and how strong it is. Right now it is a bit of guesswork.
...Wilma moving slowly as it gathers strength...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 16.1 north... longitude 80.0 west or about 235 miles... 380 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 225 miles... 365 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Wilma has drifted southward over the past few hours...but a gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 24 hours. Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 80 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km...mainly to the south of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.1 N... 80.0 W. Movement toward...drifting south. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
And in his haste to rush this out, Frankin has done yet another typographical error (which, in my haste to send this out, I repeated). In advisory 8, he misstated the rainfall estimated for Honduras; here, he screws up the restatement of maximum winds.
BTTT
I thought I heard this morning that the freak factor from Wilma has sent the price of oil up over a buck a barrel since Friday. Sigh.
The pressure is still an estimate. The hunters are out there (AF304 to be exact), but they haven't reported back on the pressure at the center.
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