5 day forecast shows this becoming a hurricane and taking a sharp turn north, towards the Gulf.Posted on 10/15/2005 1:53:14 PM PDT by Blogger
5 day forecast shows this becoming a hurricane and taking a sharp turn north, towards the Gulf.
I was just going to post that she's coming in too low.
Over here...maybe.
Looks like she may hit Central America or Mexico , but that sharp curve isn't very nice.
I see that but the rest of the models are going south.
Which site are you looking at? Weatherunderground doesn't have their normal computer models up yet.
So who's next? Vince was the last one, wasn't he?
Yes. Wilma, then Alpha.
There's far too much focus on models like the BAMD or BAMM (which do bend south); a lot of on-line sites supposedly showing the "models" omit the far more important and accurate global models.
Models look good for development. If Avila, the most conservative of the NHC forcasters says it looks good for development, it looks good.
Tropical Depression Twenty-Four Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 15, 2005
the area of low pressure that has persisted for several days in the
western Caribbean has developed enough convection and surface
circulation to be classified as a 25-knot tropical depression. The
circulation is rather broad and the area of minimum pressure could
be anywhere within 60 miles from the Initial Point in the advisory.
This is common in developing systems. The cyclone has not developed
a tight inner core yet. Data from the reconnaissance plane shows so
far a broad area of light winds with a minimum pressure of 1004 mb
associated with the center. The depression is expected to move very
slowly westward over the very warm waters of the western
Caribbean...and within a low shear environment. Both SHIPS and the
GFDL suggest that the depression could become a hurricane in a
couple of days. In fact...the GFDL makes this cyclone a very
intense hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean between Cuba and
the Cayman Islands. Strengthening is indicated in the official
forecast but not as aggressive as the GFDL...and more along the
line of the SHIPS model.
The depression is moving slowly westward at about 3 knots. A high
pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is blocking any northward
motion and is keeping very weak steering currents at this time.
Therefore...a slow westward drift is expected during the next 3
days. By then...a weakening of the ridge could develop over Florida
and the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the cyclone should begin to move
slowly northward. This is the solution provided by the GFDL...the
UK...the ECMWF and the NOGAPS models. The GFS does not
significantly develop the cyclone and does not carry the system
more than a day or two.
All indications are that there could be a dangerous hurricane in
the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the next 3 to 5 days.
However...both genesis and intensification are highly uncertain.
All interests in the northwestern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of the developing cyclone.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 15/2100z 17.6n 78.8w 25 kt
12hr VT 16/0600z 17.5n 79.5w 35 kt
24hr VT 16/1800z 17.5n 80.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 17/0600z 17.5n 80.5w 60 kt
48hr VT 17/1800z 17.5n 81.0w 70 kt
72hr VT 18/1800z 17.5n 82.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 19/1800z 18.0n 82.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 20/1800z 19.5n 83.0w 85 kt
Look at the models under Jeff Master's blog. Maybe it's a different storm?
I guess this will be WIIILLLMMMAAA!!
The heavy rain in Central America that caused the loss of at least one village and the rain in the Northeast may have been the tail ends of tropical depressions. We notice the hurricanes, but these things don't just go away. Sometimes they rain out far from the sea.
At least this will be the last one of the season. The hurricane season ends officially now, today, and we are into post-season playoffs.
In general the models have been very accurate for storms that are fully developed this year, and in recent years; models are far less accurate for tropical waves and new tropical depressions.
One big problem is many of the popular "model" sites show many old, worthless models and omit the newer more accurate models.
Look at Rita though. Even after she came in, 3 were predicting a loop back into the Gulf and one back to the Atlantic. I agree though that as she got closer they started to converge. I'm just saying that people should look at them as what's going on right now and not to predict landfall by a model of choice while the storms are still way out to sea.
Doesn't hurricane season go into November?
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