Posted on 10/01/2005 12:51:41 PM PDT by FairOpinion
Increased output from the Sun might be to blame for 10 to 30 percent of global warming that has been measured in the past 20 years, according to a new report.
Increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases still play a role, the scientists say.
But climate models of global warming should be corrected to better account for changes in solar activity, according to Nicola Scafetta and Bruce West of Duke University.
The findings were published online this week by the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Scientists agree the planet is warming. Effects are evident in melting glaciers and reductions in the amount of frozen ground around the planet.
The new study is based in part on Columbia University research from 2003 in which scientists found errors in how data on solar brightness is interpreted. A gap in data, owing to satellites not being deployed after the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, were filled by less accurate data from other satellites, Scafetta says.
The Duke analyses examined solar changes over 22 years versus 11 years used in previous studies. The cooling effect of volcanoes and cyclical shifts in ocean currents can have a greater negative impact on the accuracy of shorter data periods.
"The Sun may have minimally contributed about 10 to 30 percent of the 1980-2002 global surface warming," the researchers said in a statement today.
Many questions remain, however. For example, scientists do not have a good grasp of how much Earth absorbs or reflects sunlight.
"We don't know what the Sun will do in the future," Scafetta says. "For now, if our analysis is correct, I think it is important to correct the climate models so that they include reliable sensitivity to solar activity. Once that is done, then it will be possible to better understand what has happened during the past hundred years."
WOW! Bush and Rove have changed the sun too! ... I'm impressed.
I've always thought that the sun may have a warming effect based on my research at various beaches.
Their spin is that it's only 10% due to the sun, and 90% due to human activity.
Could be 10% to 30% caused by the sun. Or, could be 95% - 98% caused by the sun. We're too committed to "man causes global warming" to completely back down from our earlier position.
The sun responsible for changes in temperatures?!!!? Why I never!!!! Something should be done to these irresponsible scientists who make wild claims about the sun affecting the weather. (smirk)
We need sensible sun legislation. Its for the children, of course.
Notice the 10-30% estimate is based on direct solar heating. The actual solar effect will include any increased greenhouse effect from melting methane-hydrates or thawing peat-bogs, which can account for an increase
in greenhouse gasses several orders of magnitude greater than human activity.
All this makes the fact of global warming more certain, and the fact that it is not caused by human activity more certain.
The leftist-environmentalist response is exactly the wrong one: if major climate changes are up ahead, we want as fully developed and vibrant an industrial base with which to deal with them as we can get. (And maybe we shouldn't have done such a good job of cleaning up particulate pollution. A bit of soot in the air might actually be good!)
Perhaps a sunscreen rocketed up into the upper atmosphere that strengthens and ebbs with solar activity.
Yeah, yeah...that's the ticket.
We'll need a global tax for that though.
I know, I know, don't give them any ideas.
I'm guessing it will set soemtine tonite, and really go out on a limb and say it will rise tomorrow...
I see this as a fraud study from the get go. After all, if the global warming crowd gets you to agree its happening then you make their argument for it. they will then go on to set themselves up as the police on the matter, consolidat epower to themselves on the issue and make your environazi look like a nice guy compared to what world they would subect you to living in.
Well, if all we need is dust in the air, all we need to do is start burning a lot more coal, and don't crank up those electrostatic precipitators.
I move for the immediate passage of a Solar Protocol, binding on all nations, restricting the amount of sun each may use daily. Those receiving more than their allocated amount of sun useage should be required to foot the bill for the rest of us suffereing from over exposure to the sun.
Also, we must start a campaign restricting the use of sun dials and solar panels as they draw way too much solar energy and must be partly to blame for increased energy being released by the Sun.
I also propose a book, Sun In The Balance. We can show people the dangers of sun dials, solar panels and even sun bathing (unless you're young, female, and very trim) are the cause of man drawing too much energy from the sun. After all, we only have so many years of sun left on the earth and it must be preserved for our grandchildren.
We must immediately tax sun useage as well. That will discourage our excessive useage.
Next Rove is going to make the sun only shine on the white communities and not on the black ones! He's racist!
Mostly Bush.
"Hells bells how are the politicians gonna stop this? I have faith they'll come up with something."
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They sure will. Two things:
1. Blame it on Bush and the Republicans.
2. Propose new taxes.
Brilliant.
But there will be no point to being a snow bird in the winter then.
Bummer.
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