Posted on 09/29/2005 12:01:46 PM PDT by victim soul
2006 senate elections
U.S. Senate Races
Retiring
Maryland (Sarbanes-D) - Sen. Paul Sarbanes, 72, announced in mid-March that he will be retiring after 30 years in the Senate. Candidates to replace him are Rep. Ben Cardin (D), former NAACP president and former Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D), who recently admitted to having an affair with an underling while at the NAACP. For the Republicans, possible candidates include Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, Tom Hampton anddon't think he wouldn'tAlan Keyes.
Minnesota (Dayton-D) - Sen. Dayton has announced that he will retire at the end of his term. Republicans see this seat as a good opportunity for a pick up since winning the other senate seat in 2002 following the death of Sen. Paul Wellstone (D). Rep. Mark Kennedy is the likely nominee for the Republicans; retired minister Harold Shudlick is also running. Hennepin County attorney Amy Klobuchar appears to be the leading Democratic candidate. Other Democrats include Minneapolis attorney Mike Ciresi, child advocate Patty Wetterling veterinarian Ford Bell, businessman Kelly Doran and publisher Vance Opperman. Al Franken, who previously said that he may challenge Sen. Norm Coleman in 2008, has declined to make a run for this seat. Nurse Michael Cavlan is running for the Greens. Public Access TV director Robert Fitzgerald is running as an independent.
Tennessee (Frist-R) - With Sen. Majority Leader Bill Frist retiring in 2006 to possibly run for president, the Tennessee senate race is shaping up to be one of the hottest of 2006. Rep. Ed Bryant is the leading Republican contender; former Rep. Van Hilleary, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker and state GOP chair Beth Halteman Harwell are also running. For the Democrats, Rep. Harold Ford and state Sen. Rosiland Kurita are running.
Vermont (Jeffords-I) - Jim Jeffords, 70, announced in April that he won't seek re-election next year. Independent Rep. Bernie Sanders is the top candidate to replace him, receiving the support of state Democrats and Vermont's Progressive Party. For the Republicans, businessman Richard Tarrant and Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie are possible candidates, although Dubie may run for Sanders' U.S. House seat. Marine veteran Greg Parke (R) and state Sen. Mark Shepard (R) have announced candidacies. With the current field of candidates, the popular Sanders is a safe bet.
Retirement watch
California (Feinstein-D) - Born June 22, 1933, Feinstein will be 73 in election year and may retire. If she runs again, the seat is safe. If not, it's a toss up. Possible Republicans if she retires include U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Rep. Doug Ose, state Sen. Tom McClintock, Rep. Darrell Issa and Rep. George Radanovich.
Hawaii (Akaka-D) - Akaka is getting up there in age; he was born Sept. 11, 1924, and will be 82 on election day. Although Akaka has said he'll run again, Dems may want to consider injecting some new blood into Hawaii's congressional delegation before the state becomes completely Republican, which will probably happen in the next 10 years.
Massachusetts (Kennedy-D) - Sen. Kennedy was born Feb. 22, 1932, and will be 74 on election day in 2006, and he may retire. If he runs, which he probably will, he's a safe bet. If he doesn't run, it's pretty likely the Democrats will hold the seat.
New Jersey (Corzine-D) - Sen. Jon Corzine has announced that he is running for governor of New Jersey in 2005 after Gov. Jim McGreevey (D) resigned this year. If Corzine wins, he'll name his successor possibly acting Gov. Richard Codey (D) or Rep. Frank Pallone (D) who would then be up for election in 2006. Whoever it is, state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. will be a likely Republican opponent.
Utah (Hatch-R) - Born March 22, 1934, he'll be 72 years old election year, and he may retire. Neoconservative state House Minority Whip Steve Urquhart will challenge Hatch in the GOP primary. Web "guru" Pete Ashdown is running for the Democrats. If Hatch retires, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) may also enter the race.
West Virginia (Byrd-D) - Born Nov. 20, 1917, Byrd will be almost 89 years old on election day in 2006 and may retire. While he notes on his Web site that he hasn't announced his re-election bid, Byrd, however, is raising money as if he is planning to run. He also accepted $634,000 raised on his behalf by the group MoveOn.org. His potential challenger is 34-year-old Hiram Lewis (R), a veteran who served in Kuwait and Iraq.
Wisconsin (Kohl-D) - Now that he has resigned as Bush's Secretary of Health & Human Services, former Gov. Tommy Thompson may be looking to take on Kohl, in which case, the popular Thompson would win handily. If Thompson doesn't run, Kohl may face former Rep. Mark Neumann (R). Attorney Robert Gerald Lorge (R) is running. Kohl, who was born Feb. 7, 1935, and will be 71 on election day in 2006, may also retire.
In trouble???
Florida (Bill Nelson-D) - Former astronaut Nelson will most likely face Rep. Katherine Harris (R), who won national notoriety presiding over the 2000 Florida recount. Republician leaders, embarrassed by Harris, have tried to recruit a number of high-profile challengers for the GOP primary including state House Speaker Allan Bense and talk show host and former Rep. Joe Scarborough but none have yet answered the call. If Harris is the nominee, look for this race to draw national media attention. Aug. 22
Montana (Burns-R) - Burns has begun raising $8 to $10 million for his re-election in 2006. Meanwhile, possible Democratic opponent John Tester is negotiating with the alternative rock group Pearl Jam to perform at a fundraiser. The Billings Gazette reports that Tester, of Big Sandy, grew up in the same community as the band's bassist, Jeff Ament and it was Ament's father who gave Tester his first flat-top haircut, which has since become his trademark. Also running for the Democrats are state Auditor John Morrison and political neophyte Clint Wilkes of Bozeman. Media consultant and former state Rep. Paul Richards may also enter the race. Burns, by the way, was born Jan. 1, 1935, and will be almost 72 on election day in 2006. Burns won a tight race (51% to 47%) in 2000 over Brian Schweitzer (D), who was elected governor in 2004. Aside from taking the governor's race in 2004, Montana Democrats took control of the state senate and state house and now hold most statewide offices. Dems will try to capitalize on this momentum in 2006 by making a serious challenge against Burns. Aug. 22
Ohio (DeWine-R) - DeWine cheesed off conservatives by joining the so-called Gang of 14 a group of moderate Republicans and Democrats who made a pact to avoid a major showdown on President Bush's judicial nominees. Suddenly, DeWine may be in trouble in a state dominated by conservatives. Futhermore, a coin investment scandal appears to be hurting the GOP on a statewide basis making a Democratic pickup in Ohio a distinct possibility. The stage is set for Iraq veteran and recent congressional candidate Paul Hackett (D) to run in 2006.Sept. 14
Pennsylvania (Santorum-R) - Sen. Rick "Man on Dog" Santorum looks to be in trouble in this Democrat-leaning state. Popular state Treasurer Bob Casey announced he will seek the Democratic nomination, despite having just been elected state treasurer in Nov. 2004. College professor Chuck Pennacchio (D) and attorney Alan Sandals (D) are also running. Chess instructor Dave Baker is running for the Greens. Because Santorum is third in his party's Senate leadership and is a polarizing figure in a swing state, this is perhaps one of the most important races in the country for both sides. Look for a lot of cash to be dropped on this one. Aug. 22
Rhode Island (Chafee-R) - Chafee flirted with the idea of switching parties and is finding himself vulnerable to challengers from both sides. Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey (R) recently announced his primary challenge to Chafee. Secretary of State Matt Brown (D) and former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) have announced their candidacies. Because he's a moderate, Chafee is going to be tough to beat. Sept. 14
Virginia (Allen-R) - Allen is polling poorly against out-going Gov. Mark Warner in the 2006 election, although Warner is more interested in running for president in 2008. If Warner does run, it's a toss up; if not, Allen is safe. Former Rep. L.F. Payne (D) is also considering a run. Aug. 3
Safe seats (for now!)
Arizona (Kyl-R) - Jon Kyl will be 64 in election year and will likely run again. Arizona Democrats may go after Kyl, hoping to make inroads in this swing state. Former state party chair Jim Pederson (D) has announced his candidacy. Pederson will likely self-finance. Sept. 15
Connecticut (Lieberman-D) - Lieberman's closeness with President Bush is unsettling to some liberal Democrats, enough to spark a Web site called timetogojoe.com, which encourages a Democratic challenger against Lieberman in 2006. College professor and political commentator John Orman (D) may challenge Lieberman in the primary. At this point, however, Lieberman looks pretty safe.
Delaware (Carper-D) - State Sen. Colin Bonini (R) and pilot and Marine veteran Mike Protack (R) are running in the GOP primary. Regardless of the challenger, Carper is strongly favored to win in this Democratic state. Aug. 22
Indiana (Lugar-R) - Lugar, who was born April 4, 1932, and will be 74 in election year, appears to be running again. Former Rep. Tim Roemer (D) might have made it interesting, but he recently quieted speculation that he might challenge Lugar. If Lugar suddenly decides to retire, Roemer might jump in. Aug. 3
Maine (Snowe-R) - The moderate Snowe, who announced in December that she is going to seek re-election. Farmer Jean Hay Bright is running for the Democrats; Rep. Tom Allen and Attorney General G. Steven Rowe may also run. Either way, the popular Snowe will be tough to beat. Aug 22
Michigan (Stabenow-D) - The Republicans are making Stabenow a target in 2006. President Bush tried to recruit Rep. Candice Miller (R), who earned a record number of votes as a statewide candidate in 1998, to challenge Stabenow, but Miller in January 2005 said that she would not run. Former Detroit City Councilman Rev. Keith Butler and Rev. Jerry Zandstra of suburban Grand Rapids. Other possible Republican candidates include Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Without a high-profile challenger as of yet, Stabenow looks pretty safe. Aug. 19
Mississippi (Lott-R) - Lott's spectacular fall from his senate leadership role apparently hasn't hurt his chances in 2006. However, Lott recently published a tell-all book in which he blasts Sen. Bill Frist for manipultating the situation. In other words, GOP leadership may be starting to see Lott as a loose cannon and a liability but will they try to take him down in 2006? So far, no major GOP candidates have come forward. State Rep. Erik Fleming is running for the Democrats. Aug. 22
Missouri (Talent-R) - Freshman Sen. Jim Talent will likely run again and has a pretty good shot at winning. State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) is set to challenge Talent with strong backing from the party. Columnist Bob Novak reports that McCaskill, the party's 2004 gubernatorial nominee, has been promised "lavish financing" from the DSCC.Sept. 14
Nebraska (Ben Nelson-D) - Several top tier candidates have passed on this race. Former Attorney General and 2000 nominee Don Stenberg (R), former GOP chairman David Kramer and former Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts have announced candidacies. At this point, this seat looks somewhat safe for Nelson, although that could turn on a dime. Aug. 19
New Mexico (Bingaman-D) - Bingaman announced in mid-Feb. that he's going to seek a fifth term, putting an end to rumors that he may retire. Former state Sen. Tom Benavides, a former Democrat, announced he will challenge Bingaman as a Republican. In a previous election, he had tried to get on the ballot against Bingaman as a Reform Party candidate. Unless a high-profile candidate like Rep. Heather Wilson (R) comes forward, Bingaman is pretty safe. Aug. 22
New York (Clinton-D) - Clinton will no doubt run for re-election in 2006. GOP candidates include attorney and President Nixon's son-in-law Ed Cox, Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro, attorney Bill Brenner and former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer. Pirro is likely to drop out in a few weeks, given her botched campaign announcement in which she halted her speech to look for a missing page in her notes. Ouch. Aug. 22
North Dakota (Conrad-D) - The White House is aggressively trying to recruit popular Gov. John Hoeven (R), although Hoeven is understandably reluctant to take on the veteran Sen. Kent Conrad. Sept. 15
Texas (Hutchison-R) - Hutchison considered running for governor in 2006, but recently announced that she'll seek re-election. Barbara Ann Radnofsky, a Houston attorney, is running for the Democrats. Given that Hutchison is one of the most popular politicians in the state, she's going to be very, very tough to beat in 2006. Sept. 15
Washington (Cantwell-D) - Because of the state's close governor and presidential races in 2004, Cantwell was to be a top GOP target in 2006. However, the GOP has had a very tough time recruiting a top-tier candidate. Former insurance executive Mike McGavick (R) is taking the plunge. Businessman and veteran Mark Wilson (D) has announced a primary challenge to Cantwell. Aug. 22
Forget it's even happening
Nevada (Ensign-R) - Ensign and fellow Nevada Sen. Harry Reid (D) have a storied working relationship, and the two are said to have a pact not to campaign against one another. Without Reid's help, what Democrat would want to bother with this race? Aug. 3
Wyoming (Thomas-R) - Thomas was born Feb. 17, 1933, and will be 73 on election day in 2006. He has said that he intends to seek a third term. And this race should be anything but interesting.
Not up for re-election, but may retire
Alaska (Stevens-R) - Senator Ted Stevens is old, my friend. Born Nov. 18, 1923, Stevens will be nearly 83 years old on election day in 2006. If he doesn't retire, he's up for re-election in 2008.
Hawaii (Inouye-D) - Inouye recently coasted to re-election. Born Sept. 7, 1924, he'll be 82 years old on election day in 2006. He's up for re-election in 2010.
Iowa (Grassley-R) - Born Sept. 17, 1933, Grassley will be 73 on election day in 2006. Grassley is up for re-election in 2010.
Kansas (Roberts-R) - Born April 20, 1936, Roberts will be 70 on election day in 2006. He is up for re-election in 2008.
Kentucky (Bunning-R) - Born Oct. 23, 1931, Bunning will be 75 on election day in 2006.
Maryland (Mikulski-D) - Born July 20, 1936, Mikulski will be 70 on election day in 2006. She is up for re-election in 2010.
Michigan (Levin-D) - Born June 28, 1934, Levin will be 74 on election day in 2006. Levin is up for re-election in 2008; rumor has it he won't be running for re-election, however.
New Jersey (Lautenberg-D) - Born Jan. 23, 1924, Lautenberg will be 82 on election day in 2006. Lautenberg is up for re-election in 2008, but don't bet on him running again. He had reluctantly come out of retirement in 2002 as a replacement candidate for the Democrats, and few expected him to last this long. However, with Gov. McGreevey's early retirement, and Sen. Corzine's expected bid for governor in 2005 and re-election in 2006, the New Jersey political scene is already quite complicated, and he may wait until after the election in '06 to step down.
New Mexico (Domenici-R) - Born May 7, 1932, Domenici will be 74 on election day in 2006. He's up for re-election in 2008.
Oklahoma (Inhofe-R) - Born Nov. 17, 1934, Inhofe will be almost 72 on election day in 2006. He's up for re-election in 2008.
Pennsylvania (Specter-R) - Born Feb. 12, 1930, Specter will be 76 in 2006. He's up for re-election in 2010. In mid-Feb., Specter announced that he has Hodgkin's lympoma and will have to undergo 26 weeks of chemotherapy. Specter's doctor expects him to make a full recovery, and he is continuing to serve in the senate during his treatment.
Utah (Bennett-R) - Born Sept. 18, 1933, Bennett will be 73 on election day in 2006. He is up for re-election in 2010.
Updated Sept. 14
Why is Hawaii trending Republican?
Too bad they don't have a mandoratory retirement of 65!
robably part of the nationwide trend. Hawaii has a Republican governor and there were a couple polls late in the campaign last year that showed Pres. Bush with a slight lead, so they sent Cheney out there.
California: | Boxer (D-CA), Nay | Feinstein (D-CA), Nay |
Delaware: | Biden (D-DE), Nay |
Hawaii: | Akaka (D-HI), Nay | Inouye (D-HI), Nay |
Illinois: | Durbin (D-IL), Nay | Obama (D-IL), Nay |
Indiana: | Bayh (D-IN), Nay |
Iowa: | Harkin (D-IA), Nay |
Maryland: | Mikulski (D-MD), Nay | Sarbanes (D-MD), Nay |
Massachusetts: | Kennedy (D-MA), Nay | Kerry (D-MA), Nay |
Michigan: | Stabenow (D-MI), Nay |
Minnesota: | Dayton (D-MN), Nay |
Nevada: | Reid (D-NV), Nay |
New Jersey: | Corzine (D-NJ), Nay | Lautenberg (D-NJ), Nay |
New York: | Clinton (D-NY), Nay | Schumer (D-NY), Nay |
Rhode Island: | Reed (D-RI), Nay |
Washington: | Cantwell (D-WA), Nay |
wealthy howlies coming to live there...
I'm not aware that it is. Democrats usually win by ridiculously huge margins in that state, although Kerry was only favored by ~9% over Bush in the 2004 election. I guess Hawaiians recognize how vulnerable they are to terrorists.
Because the economy has been trending downwards for years now, largely a result of decreased Asian tourism. Voters blame the party in power, which just happens to be the Democrats.
Here in Washington we think Cantwell should still be considered a top target, with a GREAT chance to pick up the seat.
McGavick is smart and hard nosed. He's a successful business leader, which the libs hate. He was sometimes TOO tough running Safeco, but I doubt he will lose many "moderates" because of it. Basically, the folks that hate McGavick would not have voted for any Republican anyway. His biggest challenge will be appearing conservative enough to the Republican base on social issues, without costing himself the election in the process. A social conservative has little chance in a statewide election in Washington if the candidate allows that to become the central issue in the election, even if the votes are counted fairly.
The big difference this time is that the Dems will have a much harder time padding their vote. They stole the governor's race in 2004, and fake votes probably cost Slade Gorton his Senate seat a few years before that. They still control King and Pierce Counties, but this time it will be harder to cheat.
Mailed in ballots can still be manipulated shamelessly, and I'm certain the Dems will continue to do so. But voting in person now requires ID, and the Dems know people will be looking over their shoulder even in the mail room.
Term limits would work better. Two terms in the Senate, a couple of more allowed in the House (maybe 12 years max for each), then onward to someone new. And of course cut the life-long big-time benefits!! Who else gets the perks these "public servants" receive?!
With Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's success in California, it's time for GOP Californians to present a strong campaign and candidate against Diane Feinstein!
While our troops are in harms way defending our freedom in Iraq, Feinstein opposes the war when the service members need all the help that they can get in fighting terrorism.
Feinstein appeared unprepared to challenge the John Roberts' nomination for Supreme Court Justice when she had to read her questions when interrogating him. Mr. Roberts spoke off the top of his head.
~Scott~
If Christine Gregoire has to resort to that to win the Governor's race in a liberal enviro state, that should be a reflection on how "one term" Senator Maria Cantwell can be defeated. I believe that Cantwell is also one of only 22 Senators who voted against the John Roberts' nomination.
~Scott~
Who writes this stuff?
"a very tough time recruiting a top-tier candidate"???
Dino Rossi declined, as expected. As soon as he did so, Mike McGavick jumped in and got the unified support of the party, garnering the backing of almost every other potential candidate. Immediately getting a top tier candidate is not "a very tough time"!
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