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Future Shock: What's in store for tomorrow's geopolitics? [Mark Steyn]
National Review ^ | October 10, 2005 issue | Mark Steyn

Posted on 09/28/2005 9:12:03 AM PDT by Constitution Day

Edited on 09/28/2005 9:55:48 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

Stop me if you

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; Politics/Elections; Russia
KEYWORDS: china; marksteyn; russia; steyn
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To: CharlieOK1
The Russians I know are generally pro-free market, anti-taxes, and completely un-PC.

But they are complete social liberals - they don't seem to draw a very bright line between entrpreneurial and criminal behavior, and they don't agree with any traditional views about marriage, family, divorce, abortion, etc.

Though they generally find homosexuality either humorous or distasteful.

61 posted on 09/28/2005 1:38:37 PM PDT by wideawake (God bless our brave troops and their Commander-in-Chief)
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To: Constitutionalist Conservative
It's easier, but they can't export tens of millions of young men just like that.

Young women are just as capable of going abroad as the men to look for work and opportunities.

And the men who do go abroad are the ones most likely to be successful and therefore appealing to Chinese women.

62 posted on 09/28/2005 1:40:55 PM PDT by wideawake (God bless our brave troops and their Commander-in-Chief)
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To: Constitutionalist Conservative
Also, when Chinese emigrate right now, they wind up having far fewer ties to the motherland than they used to.

They are not leaving behind huge extended families, they are generally coming from nontraditional urban settings where they did not set up particularly deep roots, they are growing up in a more Americanized fashion in China already, etc.

63 posted on 09/28/2005 1:44:48 PM PDT by wideawake (God bless our brave troops and their Commander-in-Chief)
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To: grey_whiskers
In China, there are one-and-a-half billion and they need lebensraum


In China, there are one-and-a-half billion and they need Lesbianism!

64 posted on 09/28/2005 1:46:36 PM PDT by Tokra (I think I'll retire to Bedlam.)
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To: theFIRMbss

Wow. This is like stepping through the looking glass. Leave it to those clever Canadians to figure it all out.


65 posted on 09/28/2005 7:52:26 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: All

Can someone FReepmail me a copy of the article? Thanks.


66 posted on 09/28/2005 8:08:30 PM PDT by Optimus Prime (Do liberals even qualify as sentient beings?)
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To: Optimus Prime; All

Me too. Could anyone who has read the entire article summarize what Steyn says through private messaging? Thanks.


67 posted on 09/28/2005 8:51:36 PM PDT by NZerFromHK ("US libs...hypocritical, naive, pompous...if US falls it will be because of these" - Tao Kit (HK))
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To: Verginius Rufus; alwaysconservative
>Wow. This is like stepping through the looking glass

I don't remember
the tin foil Left being so
fragmented before.

The ZetaTalk spiel
is that the Bush White House is
falling to pieces.

But at Antipas
(run by real ex-servicemen),
their message is Bush

never had more strength . . .
I think it's a good sign when
the Left is confused!

68 posted on 09/29/2005 7:13:11 AM PDT by theFIRMbss
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To: theFIRMbss
You fink! I went to ZetaTalk expecting: this, not this.
69 posted on 09/29/2005 9:55:08 AM PDT by Dr.Deth
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To: farlander
Invading Siberia is not nearly as easy as people think, for several reasons: first the geographic.

Hmmm but there's oil there and gold. Yes, plenty of oil, problem is, is that it's on the north Siberia plain...no problem really, just 2,000 km of some of the world's highest forested mountains. This is further then from Berlin to Moscow and unlike that little fiasco, there aren't plenty of roads leading to it. As a matter of fact, the vast majority of the few solid roads run east-west not north-south. The Chinese have oil reserves for one month, now we have problems. Plus, the time period when those passes are clear is pretty short, especially if you have to build roads to get your 3-4 million man army north.

Ok, so now you've got two other options: east around the mountains through N.Korea and into Vladivostok and up the coast. True the going is much easier but: it's about 500-1000 km longer and you loose the whole surprise thing. Furthermore, you're moving through one of nature's bottle necks and the Russians actually have a strong force there and they do have a much superior airforce so they can seriously pound you before you ever get close.

Or maybe West. Well, the advantage of bursting out into Khazakstan and then swinging up into the gap between Siberian mountains and the Urals, is that it's a nice wide steppe, hard to bottle neck. The disadvantage? Besides it's now a 3,000+ km dash (ok closer to the west Siberian fields but) is that you are now close to continental Russia, close to the main Russian armies and population centers and supply points and the Russians have a much much much larger tank force then anything you have (most of China's army is truck bound at best) and it's a steppe so maneuver is a lot easier....being caught by a tank army while travelling across open terrain, especially terrain where the enemy will have air superiority, is a very very very bad thing.

Now the people: Russians in general are psychotic nationalists when it comes to defending every square inch of the Rodina. Not good if you plan on conquering a civilization. They don't assimulate to well and are themselves cultural chovinists (just like us....a good thing really). Secondly, if the average Russian is psychotic in this category, then the average Siberian is like a rabid cornored wolf. The Chinese would have partisans all over the place.

But lastly, the Russians have also been busy little beavers arming Khazakstan, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, S.Korea and offerring weapons to Taiwan, to keep the Chicoms busy from all sides. They even sold a relatively large fleet to India to intercept Chinese oil/grain shipments that pass through the Indian Ocean.

70 posted on 09/29/2005 10:58:13 AM PDT by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: KC_Conspirator

And whom did we listen and structure our present economy of the 90's and 2000's on? Those leftist free traitor economists, the same ones who read Karl Marx's pro-free trade speech and agreed.


71 posted on 09/29/2005 11:01:06 AM PDT by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: untenured

There is a strong and growing back lash against the Chinese coming in to Russia. Think of the feelings towards Mexicans in Arizona.


72 posted on 09/29/2005 11:02:18 AM PDT by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: wideawake

Instead Brazil will be the world super power. ;)


73 posted on 09/29/2005 11:03:23 AM PDT by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Tolik

They'll have the money, thy'll just import all those huge, fat, Walmart mamas to China where each will take care of 3-4 small chinese guys.


74 posted on 09/29/2005 11:06:00 AM PDT by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Ichneumon
Yes, but now Siberia is known to have large oil reserves, so...

and only 2,000km of forested mountains with almost no north-south roads.

75 posted on 09/29/2005 11:10:36 AM PDT by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Verginius Rufus

Will you bother to ask the Russians for their opinion before giving away their land? Besides, the Chinese are successfully colonizing much nicer Hawaii and California.


76 posted on 09/29/2005 11:12:39 AM PDT by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: jb6

The Germans offered to give Mexico parts of the US in 1917 without checking with us first, and I don't doubt the Russians would have done the same if the opportunity had arisen. The Russians never care what other people think about what they're doing.


77 posted on 09/29/2005 11:43:43 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: Verginius Rufus

If that was the case, there would be no Chechens left in the world and Russia would still have the death penalty amongst other things that changed thanks to pressure from the EU.


78 posted on 09/29/2005 12:31:45 PM PDT by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Constitution Day

The full text is now available here:
http://www.ivanyi-consultants.com/articles/future.html


79 posted on 10/02/2005 11:40:31 PM PDT by Hunden (Email)
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To: wideawake

"By the time 2010 rolls around you're going to have 50,000,000-75,000,000 Chinese men aged 25-35 who will be facing the realization that they have nearly zero prospect of ever getting married."

What do you call 50~75 million unmarriable young men?

I call it the largest (potential) army the world has ever seen.

(Or Andrew Sullivan's wet dream?)


80 posted on 10/03/2005 7:21:19 PM PDT by LeftCoastNeoCon (I am the universe observing itself)
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