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Future Shock: What's in store for tomorrow's geopolitics? [Mark Steyn]
National Review ^ | October 10, 2005 issue | Mark Steyn

Posted on 09/28/2005 9:12:03 AM PDT by Constitution Day

Edited on 09/28/2005 9:55:48 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

Stop me if you

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; Politics/Elections; Russia
KEYWORDS: china; marksteyn; russia; steyn
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To: Strategerist

Nazi Germany in the 20s?


21 posted on 09/28/2005 9:38:26 AM PDT by A Longer Name
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To: Constitution Day
Interesting. I always find the experts wront in predicting the future, especially liberal prognosticators.

In the early 70's, we had Paul Erlich and his liberal minions of the Club of Rome telling us about the "Population Bomb" and how western life would be unsustainable. In the 80's we had liberals telling us that communism was the wave of the future. Keynesians everywhere told us that the Soviet Union had a superior and healthy economy. (There is one famous liberal jackball ecnomist who said this, but I cannot recall his name now).

Hey by the late 80's and early 90's we were told of the strong and growing German economy. But that was not the worst of it. Japan had been so successful and buying up American real estate, like Rockefeller Plaza, that we were told that Japan's economy was the model for the future and we would all have Japanese businessmen eating sushi off of our women's naked bodies.

They were all wrong, wrong, wrong. And now we are told that Communist China is the wave of the future? Maybe India? (Large populations have never been the sole factor in world influence)

One thing I know is that is its been bad business to bet against America, as George Soros just found out.

22 posted on 09/28/2005 9:42:21 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator (This space outsourced to India)
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To: Strategerist
The China-Russia border thing is an interesting one;...

I agree, and this has been slowly unfolding for awhile. The first I ever heard of it was a Stratfor report called "Russian Far East Turning Chinese?", which is available here . Just four years after those predictions were made The Globe and Mail reports about the rise of Chinese influence in the region. It definitely bears watching.

23 posted on 09/28/2005 9:43:05 AM PDT by untenured (http://futureuncertain.blogspot.com)
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To: Pokey78

Thanks for the ping! This man can pull facts together in a way that REALLY illustrates what is going on.


24 posted on 09/28/2005 9:47:34 AM PDT by alwaysconservative (Families are like fudge, mostly sweet, but with a few nuts.)
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To: KC_Conspirator
Excellent, excellent post.

Almost no one in Europe in 1900 predicted America's rise to become a power on a level rivalling Britain or Germany by 1950 - let alone a superpower head and shoulders over them.

In 1900 all the money was on Germany to take Britain's place in the world order.

All the money is on China today. We'll see how that works out.

25 posted on 09/28/2005 9:49:14 AM PDT by wideawake (God bless our brave troops and their Commander-in-Chief)
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To: Constitution Day

Steyn correctly warns against extrapolating the trends of the last couple of decades in case of China. Then he goes ahead and does the same for Russia. Russia had had a very bad century, but she is coming out of it. Yes, the transition from Communism to a normal economy is not pretty. But eventually this transition will be over, and, given normal economy, Russia has a lot going for it.


26 posted on 09/28/2005 9:50:45 AM PDT by A Longer Name
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To: wideawake

My husband and I have befriended a young Chinese couple who have moved here from Beijing. They are good friends and we value their friendship a lot. Still, we can see such differences in them than in Americans. They have no religious beliefs, although they believe in being good. There is just an emptiness there. The wife told me about her abortion in China as though she had gotten rid of a headache--no thought or feeling at all. And they are so mean to each other. My husband and I both have huge tempers and say things we regret, I'm very sorry to say. But they say things to each that is just the norm. We would never say what we hear them say to each other. And different Chinese, if they are from different areas of china, treat each poorly, although they will treat Westerners with a great deal of respect. My friend told me when Chinese couples come to America, a lot of them divorce. I think it's becaue they witness American marriages which are a lot healthier, in general, than theirs. My friend comments frequently that I always know my husband loves me. It's very sad.


27 posted on 09/28/2005 9:52:43 AM PDT by twigs
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To: A Longer Name

Eh, Hitler wasn't Chancellor till 1933, but the Party was around before then.

Extensive-Russian German cooperation started in the 1920s.


28 posted on 09/28/2005 9:58:19 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: wideawake

If communists remain in power, they can work around their ideology to institute Conscripted Concubine Corps.

If they go away, the free market will work it out.

No prosthetic devise even Internet connected can substitute.

In regards to creating families, that's tough.


29 posted on 09/28/2005 9:58:33 AM PDT by Tolik
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To: Constitution Day
...becoming the first gay superpower since Sparta...

Well, there's the keeper from this column.

30 posted on 09/28/2005 10:02:07 AM PDT by muleskinner
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To: Constitution Day
In China, there are one-and-a-half billion and they need lebensraum.

I don't think China would ever invade Russia. The Chinese have been living right next door to Siberia for thousands of years but never thought of conquering it or settling there. Why? Because it frigging Siberia, that's why! I guess it takes northern folk to even think of moving there.

(Yes, I know that some Chinese from the border regions are attracted by the economic opportunities and cross the border. This is not exactly the same as military invasion.)

31 posted on 09/28/2005 10:02:13 AM PDT by A Longer Name
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To: Tolik
Apparently, the Chinese government is attempting to solve the problem by lightening enforcement of prostitution laws and encouraging the proliferation of escort services.

I don't know how official or centralized that is.

Of course, paying for sex is probably not very emotionally satisfying and doesn't help any man who wants to start a family.

32 posted on 09/28/2005 10:03:10 AM PDT by wideawake (God bless our brave troops and their Commander-in-Chief)
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To: twigs

Interesting. I've had similar experiences with Russian neighbors - living under communism really warps people, even if they don't buy into communism.


33 posted on 09/28/2005 10:05:00 AM PDT by wideawake (God bless our brave troops and their Commander-in-Chief)
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To: A Longer Name
In China, there are one-and-a-half billion and they need lebensraum.

Anti-China Sarcasm Torpedo ARMED. FIRE!!

Is that the Chinese word for it? I know that would solve the continuing overpopulation problem, but pairing the women off seems like a poor solution when the problem is a surplus of men.

Ahh, what do I know, it's probably just another Communist "great leap forward."

34 posted on 09/28/2005 10:16:29 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Pokey78

Thanks Pokey! My hardcopy of NR just showed up at the house so I can read the rest!


35 posted on 09/28/2005 10:26:15 AM PDT by Rummyfan
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To: A Longer Name
I don't think China would ever invade Russia. The Chinese have been living right next door to Siberia for thousands of years but never thought of conquering it or settling there. Why? Because it frigging Siberia, that's why!

Yes, but now Siberia is known to have large oil reserves, so...

36 posted on 09/28/2005 10:38:49 AM PDT by Ichneumon
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To: Constitution Day
Unless China’s planning on becoming the first gay superpower since Sparta, what’s going to happen to those young men? As a rule, large numbers of excitable lads who can’t get any action are useful for manning the nuttier outposts of the jihad but not for much else.

The problem here is that when those tens of millions of "surplus" males start making problems for China because they can't find wives, the most obvious solution for China would be to start a massive war with one or more countries in a win-win situation: If China wins, bonus, and even if they lose, their casualties will thin out the "excess" male population.

I think we should all be concerned about a China which has tens of millions of young males it can afford to lose, and has an incentive to do so.

37 posted on 09/28/2005 10:43:42 AM PDT by Ichneumon
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To: Strategerist

Maybe we could make a deal with China...they can have back the land they lost to Russia in the 19th century, in return for letting the future of Taiwan being decided by a vote of the residents (independence, immediate incorporation into Red China, or delayed incorporation into Red China).


38 posted on 09/28/2005 10:51:06 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: Constitution Day
Steyn gives a head fake by wondering aloud about China and finishing by dooming Russia.

He's probably right. The only problem is, after they take Siberia, there still won't be enough women to go around for all the bachelor Chinamen.

39 posted on 09/28/2005 10:57:34 AM PDT by Gritty ("Transnationalism is the mechanism progressives use to provide cover for its darkest forces-Mk Steyn)
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To: Ichneumon
Yes, but now Siberia is known to have large oil reserves, so...

So why not simply buy it? It's not that expensive, you know. Certainly less expensive than starting a major war.

40 posted on 09/28/2005 11:04:11 AM PDT by A Longer Name
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