NOTE TO THE LOONIE LEFT: the author isn't American...
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Posted on 09/23/2005 11:51:10 AM PDT by proud_yank
LONDON, England (Reuters) -- A leading British scientist said on Friday the growing ferocity of hurricanes hitting the United States was very probably caused by global warming and criticized what he termed U.S. "climate loonies" over the issue.
Sir John Lawton, chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution which advises the government, made what the Independent newspaper said was a thinly disguised attack on the stance of U.S. President George W. Bush's administration.
"The increased intensity of these kinds of extreme storms is very likely to be due to global warming," Lawton told the newspaper in an interview.
"If this makes the climate loonies in the States realize we've got a problem, some good will come out of a truly awful situation," said Lawton.
(Excerpt) Read more at edition.cnn.com ...
There ain't no such thing as global warming.
NOTE TO THE LOONIE LEFT: the author isn't American...
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Global warming, like the unicorn, is a mythical beast.
Can we figure out a way to say. Alright already, we are awake, so stop screaming at us to wake up. Whatsthematter with you? Did you just fall off a turnip truck? Never saw clouds before?
Actually, that's not accurate:
Increase in Major Hurricanes Linked to Warmer Seas
The number of severe hurricanes has doubled worldwide even though the total number of hurricanes has dropped over the last 35 years, a new study finds.
The increase in major storms like Katrina coincides with a global increase of sea surface temperatures, which scientists say is an effect of global warming.
The possible relationship between global warming and hurricane strength has been a topic of controversy for years.
The new study supports another one released in July, in which climatologist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology showed for the first time that major storms in both the Atlantic and the Pacific since the 1970s have increased in duration and intensity by about 50 percent.
The new reearch finds that total number of hurricanes worldwide – except for in the North Atlantic – decreased during during the period from 1970 to 2004 compared to years prior.
Yet in the same period, the global number of intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has nearly doubled in number, jumping from 50 per five years during the 1970's to 90 per five years in the last decade.
This increase is most evident in the North Atlantic basin, where from 1975 to 1989 there were 16 such hurricanes, but from 1990-2004 there were 25, a 56 percent increase.
Warmer seas
Using satellite data, the scientists link the increase in major storms to rising sea surface temperatures, which they believe have been influenced by global warming. However, the researchers will not go as far as to say that global warming is spinning up these larger storms.
"We're not saying that global warming is causing there to be more intense hurricanes," study author Peter Webster of Georgia Tech told LiveScience. "What we're saying is that sea surface temperatures are rising, and the intensity of hurricanes is associated with that. The warmer the sea surface temperature, the more intense the hurricanes."
Other studies suggest global warming won't abate for more than a century, no matter what industry might do to curb greenhouse gases.
"If this association is correct, that means we're going to have the increase in these intense hurricanes for quite a long time unless sea surface temperatures go down," he said. "The era of intense hurricanes could be around for a long time."
This study is detailed in the Sept. 16 issue of the journal Science.
Hurricane fuel
As a hurricane builds up energy, it feeds off heat from the water. As water heats up, it turns into water vapor. As water vapor rises, it cools, condenses into rain, and releases heat that fuels the hurricane. The higher the vapor rises, the more heat is released, and the more intense the storm.
From their data, Webster and his colleagues determined that global sea surface temperatures have increased by half a degree Celsius since 1970. As a result, waters worldwide are primed for making hurricanes.
"Hurricane fuel, so to speak, is water vapor that rises from the surface. Small increases in sea surface temperature give you rapidly more vapor, making hurricanes more intense," Webster said.
While most scientists agree that global sea surface temperatures have increased, they don't all agree on what drives this change. One school of thought is that long term variability of ocean temperatures drives the change, and that right now the oceans are in a warm phase unrelated to climate change.
"The other is global warming," Webster said. "We thought the way to test both hypotheses was to look at global sea surface temperature statistics."
If natural variability is the cause of rising sea surface temperatures, different sea surface temperature patterns would occur in the different ocean basins because of variations in the atmosphere above them. However, Webster and his colleagues found fairly uniform temperature changes around the globe, leading them to believe this change is due to global warming.
"We found that the sea surface temperature has risen 0.5 degrees Celsius in all basins since 1970," Webster said. "If it is due to natural variation, it must be something that's a global trend, but we don't know what that could be yet."
While warm water temperatures fuel hurricanes, a storm then cools down the sea surface. It is nature's way of moving energy from the tropics northward and dumping it, as rain, in places like the United States.
"The only way you can supply energy is by cooling the surface. You take low energy water and make high energy water vapor. In doing so, you cool the ocean surface," Webster said. "Hurricanes are very effective at taking energy out of the ocean."
As the hurricane builds up, it pulls more and more water vapor away from the sea surface, releasing more heat as it does so. In addition to cooling the water this way, the intense hurricane winds also mix cool water from the deep with warmer surface water.
Fewer total hurricanes
So if warmer sea surface temperatures lead to an increase in intense hurricanes, why has there been a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in this same period?
"We don't have a simple theory to explain that one, as we do with hurricane intensity, but there may be a relationship," Judith Curry, also of Georgia Tech and a study co-author said yesterday in a teleconference, adding that the intense hurricanes may hinder the formation of other hurricanes by removing so much heat from the ocean.
Scientists have long known that when one tropical storm follows the same path as a previous hurricane, it is less likely to grow strong.
Another observation of the study was that the global number of hurricane days has steadily been decreasing. In 1995 there were 870 hurricane and tropical storm days worldwide, but in 2003 that number dropped to 600.
For now, scientists don't know what mechanism caused the decrease to happen, but they say future research and data collection will hopefully help them figure it out.
"The decrease in the number of hurricanes and the decrease in the number of hurricane days correspond almost exactly to when the number of intense hurricanes increase," Webster said. "There must be something monumental that will come along and kick us in the shin to help us understand that."
No responsible scientist can say that human activity is making these hurricanes worse.cogitator:
Actually, that's not accurate:
What follows in the rest of your post essentially says that the hurricane frequency/intensity change is linked to warmer seas. It further says that no one is saying this directly a result of global warming. And, even if there is a link, there is still a raging debate about whether global warming is indeed primarily the result of human activity.
From your post: ... researchers will not go as far as to say that global warming is spinning up these larger storms... ..."We're not saying that global warming is causing there to be more intense hurricanes," ... "If it is due to natural variation, it must be something that's a global trend, but we don't know what that could be yet." "We don't have a simple theory to explain that one, as we do with hurricane intensity ... For now, scientists don't know what mechanism caused the decrease [in frequency] to happen ... The possible relationship between global warming and hurricane strength has been a topic of controversy for years.
So as conserv13 said:
No responsible scientist can say that human activity is making these hurricanes worse.
Isn't it kind of wierd Bush plans "to ride out the storm at the U.S. Northern Command in Colorado Springs, Colorado," Is that to check out first hand how these weather controllers handle Katrina?
The Brits are really fond of their eccentric characters, aren't they?
I mean Rita.
I know! Conspiracy written all over it. And the press is hounding him that 'he'll get in the way' when the same press was crying that he didn't get to LA fast enough.
I would love it if he and Rove would use their weather machine to unleash a few hurricanes and tornados on France. How 'bout a plague of locusts too!
I'd sell all I own and donate the $$ to the RNC!!
I wonder what this Limey Lonney thinks that Americans can do to counter the impulses of Mother Nature ------ exactly?
Pretty bold talk, p_y! Much more of that, and you will be visited by some men-in-black. I'm glad I don't live in your neighborhood - the helicopter noise will be getting pretty fierce. Heh heh.
Oh, well that seals it then. Where do I turn in my car, barbecue grill, and aerosol cans?
Oh, wait, maybe I should wait until someone offers any actual real EVIDENCE that WE are causing "global warming", or that there is actually any "global warming" taking place, or that the "global warming" that is supposedly taking place isn't simply a natural, cyclical occurence, or that maybe the "global warming" is due to things other than the United States and its citizens?
Nah, I'd better listen to these superior intellects, 'cause they know so much more than the rest of us.
That is a point that many here are trying to make though: What is this guy's credibility as a scientist?? So many people try to use issues such as global warming to push a political agenda.
'Global warming' is a natural phenomenon, like many things in nature, the earth's temp. is not constant. The issue of 'human caused' global warming, i.e. human activity adding to the issue, is very debatable. And many phrases like 'probably', 'most likely', 'seems evident that', etc. are not conclusive, and many of these studies do not factor everything into the research. (Changes in the temp. of the sun, solar flares, natural temp changes etc... )
I have a hard time getting myself into a frenzy over something like two intense hurricanes back-to-back. Nothing very conclusive has been found to say that say human activity caused this, yet when they hit, everyone is screaming with 100% certainty 'GLOBAL WARMING!!!'
Luckily enough for me I currently live in Canadia, though I am worried about a Rove-induced weather strike here due to the Canadian govt's stance on missile defense.
On the other hand....That could explain the 'clicking' noise that I hear when I pick up my phone.
Uh oh, computer getting fuzzy... I gotta run!!
I am happy to accept the idea that the climate changes over long periods but I cannot fathom the silly leap of faith that drives some to believe that it is human activity that drives this change.
If today's temperatures are the highest recorded since 1500, what made it so warm then?
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