HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A

000 WTNT33 KNHC 221735 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...700 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 915 MB...27.01 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15 INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.5 N... 89.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.

I have a proposal to make. Take a sea going barge. Load it up with loud speakers and microphones. Take the top 50 democrat leaders and put them on the barge. Approach the storm from behind as these democrats speak with passion about their vision of America into the microphones. As the storm starts to feed on all that hot air it will reverse its course. Then lead it back out to sea and let it play out.

I know it's risky because the storm could overtake the barge and sink it killing all aboard but it is a risk we have to take. It's for the women and the children who are always hit hardest by these storms. Come on Hillary, Ted Harry, Nancy, Barbara, Al, John, and all. Step up to the challenge and save the coast.

America needs you!

Got to run now.

See yall later.

I have been watching the NOAA Float Vis loop all day (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html) , and I turned the Trop Fcst Pts on. Now, if you see where it is coming from, and where it is going, it does not match up with the projected path. I am not suggesting Galveston or Houston will be missed completely, but it is looking to me like landfall will be at Lake Charles LA or close by. Does anyone else think this? Try running the loop and putting a straight line against your screen following the eye. Now compare that with where the forecast is. OK, since most hurricanes slice right as they near land (I guess because of drag), imagine rotating the projected patch to match the actual ... you will see landfall around Lake Charles.

If this is the case, then one, the people of Lake Charles need to be treated like they are going to get the worst, and we need to prepare that area. Second, this puts a lot of rain and wind a lot closer to NOLA ... and they better stop pussyfooting around and get the rest of the people out of there.

Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 21a

Statement as of 7:00 PM CDT on September 22, 2005

...Rita continues west-northwestward...
...Outer rainbands spreading over southern Louisiana...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the mouth of the Pearl River including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain....and from south of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas...and for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 7 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 26.0 north...longitude 89.9 west or about 350 miles... 565 km...east-southeast of Galveston Texas and about 290 miles... 465 km...southeast of Cameron Louisiana.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of Rita will be approaching the southwest Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Rita is a extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km. Any tropical storm force winds in the New Orleans area are expected to be confined to a few squalls associated with quickly moving rainbands. Shortly before 6 PM CDT...NOAA buoy 42001 just south of the center of Rita reported a 10-minute average wind of 83 mph...134 km/hr with a gust to 112 mph...180 km/hr.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was 913 mb...26.96 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Tides are currently running about 2 feet above normal along the Louisiana...Mississippi and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase to 3 to 5 feet and be accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience coastal flooding.

Rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum 15 inch totals are possible along the path of Rita over southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland. Based on the forecast track...totals accumulations in excess of 25 inches are possible over the next several days as the system slows down. In addition...rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern Louisiana including New Orleans.

Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...26.0 N... 89.9 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 913 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Knabb

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