That is excellent news. Do you know... Is is expected to re-strengthen to a 5 again? Or weaken even more to less than 4?
Rita weakens slightly to Category 4
September 22, 2005 - 02:43 PM
This has been an absolutely incredible hurricane season, and we are still near the peak. Hurricane Rita's explosive growth has finally stopped and she has weakened slightly. Fortunately, Rita should slowly continue to weaken until landfall. Category 5 hurricanes are very hard to maintain. At this point it looks like Rita is completing and eyewall replacement cycle and could strengthen very soon.
Aircraft recon earlier reported a central pressure of 897 mb. This makes Hurricane Rita the third most intense hurricane ever record in the Atlantic. This places Rita behind Gilbert in 1988 with 888mb, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane with 892 mb. Last month Hurricane Katrina recorded 902 mb. Right now the central pressure is up to 914 mb. Please remember that althought Rita is now a Category 4 storm, she can still pack storm surge of a Category 5.
http://www.thestormtrack.com/
They are arguing about this over on one of the weather forums. There is a patch of hot water to cross if Rita turns more northward, and then there is the eyewall replacement cycle.
The problem is that the storm surge, according to some of them, will be that of a cat5, no matter what...
But, they love to argue. (even more than some of the Freepers!)
The official discussion is that she'll continue to weaken, but still make landfall as at least a Category 3. Some independent meteorologists are saying that Rita is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and that she'll strengthen somewhat (it wouldn't take much from 150 mph to make it back to 5).
Now, for the bad news; storm surges are still expected to be higher than the strength at landfall would suggest, and almost all the models have her stalling between northeast Texas, Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northwest Louisiana.