They are arguing about this over on one of the weather forums. There is a patch of hot water to cross if Rita turns more northward, and then there is the eyewall replacement cycle.
The problem is that the storm surge, according to some of them, will be that of a cat5, no matter what...
But, they love to argue. (even more than some of the Freepers!)
Yep! :) This morning when I checked in, I saw people arguing about whether or not it would hit NOLA instead of Houston - I take it that's over?