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To: cgk
That is excellent news. Do you know... Is is expected to re-strengthen to a 5 again? Or weaken even more to less than 4?

The official discussion is that she'll continue to weaken, but still make landfall as at least a Category 3. Some independent meteorologists are saying that Rita is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and that she'll strengthen somewhat (it wouldn't take much from 150 mph to make it back to 5).

Now, for the bad news; storm surges are still expected to be higher than the strength at landfall would suggest, and almost all the models have her stalling between northeast Texas, Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northwest Louisiana.

1,644 posted on 09/22/2005 12:03:48 PM PDT by steveegg ($3.00 a gallon is the price you pay for ANWR! Start drilling or stop whining! - HT Falcon4.0)
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To: steveegg
Some independent meteorologists are saying that Rita is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and that she'll strengthen somewhat...

Count me as one of them. IR and water vapor imagery show increasing organization of the storm, and last recon showed that the pressure rises observed earlier have stopped. I suspect the inner wall is about to collapse, allowing the outer eyewall to take over. Once that happens, the gradient will tighten and the wind field will adjust, resulting in a ramping up of the winds.

1,671 posted on 09/22/2005 12:09:31 PM PDT by WxMan2000
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To: steveegg

Ouch. I was watching some info on the Galveston sea wall on FNC last night. They were saying it's a 17 foot wall (though info here says it has sunk 2 ft since being built), and they were expecting a 17-20 foot storm surge?

I read on some other weather sites that Andrew probably underwent a very fast eyewall replacement cycle and that is why it was so unexpected for Homestead. It was weakened then suddenly got much stronger.


1,682 posted on 09/22/2005 12:11:53 PM PDT by cgk (When the BIG ONE wipes out Hollywood can we call it Bush's Fault instead of the San Andreas Fault?)
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