About the only certainty right now is that a direct NO hit is impossible.
No such thing as impossible, with a hurricane in the Gulf. Perhaps you should take a look at the storm track from Elena, in 1985.
Agreed.
You forgot your /wishful thinking tag. Three hours before Charlie was forcast to plow into Tampa/St. Pete, the storm turned and annihilated Punta Gorda. Then it headed for Orlando, where many from Tampa had evacuated to. We barely got any wind or rain.
A few miles of wobble in something this large this far away from land can mean hundreds of miles of difference in the actual landfall.