Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous and large Category Five Hurricane Rita is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Air Force Reconnaissance indicated the central pressure has dropped to 904mb, making Rita the fifth most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Northern Mexico through the South Louisiana coastline. Galveston TX used school buses to evacuate residents. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations are in effect along the Texas coastline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[kcvl]

I didn't mean for that to add to your worries! I didn't know that is where your aunt lives. I'm sorry!

[silentknight]

Models are REALLY shifting north and east now.

[backhoe]

ALL the latest models are now showing the Sabine Pass area, the Tx La border. The strom has started it's turn earlier than anticipated and is now moving WNW. Bad bad news for New Orleans.

Couldn't agree more- we have a saying down South ( and I've heard it elsewhere ) that "when bad luck jumps you, it gets you with both feet."

Hate to see this.

[silentknight]

From the 4:15 AM AFD from Ft. Worth:

BIG CHANGES POSSIBLE WITH THE MAJOR HURRICANE AS THREE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. FIRST...AND POSSIBLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT...RITA HAS ALREADY MADE SOME MOVEMENT FURTHER NORTH OF WEST. SECOND...WHILE H5 RIDGE REMAINS RATHER STRONG...IT HAS SHOWN SIGNS THAT IS IS ALREADY WEAKENING...PER 00Z UPPER AIR DATA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST IN WEAKENING SUCH STRONG RIDGES...SO THIS HAS AND CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN AS THE RIDGE LOCATION AND STRENGTH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION OF LANDFALL. LASTLY...ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL HAVE REALLY TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AS IT RELATES TO LANDFALL AND TRACK OF DISSIPATING SYSTEM.

BELIEVE THAT HPC AND NHC HAVE A GREAT HANDLE WITH ADJUSTING THE LANDFALL FURTHER EAST AND TAKING THE DECAYING STORM MORE ACROSS E TEXAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ACTUAL LANDFALL OCCUR EVEN FURTHER EAST...POSSIBLY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BEAUMONT.

*IF ALL THIS WASN/T ENOUGH...GFS80 HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A
REBUILDING RIDGE ALL AROUND WEAKENING RITA...SO MUCH THAT RITA
COULD ROTATE AROUND PARTS OF N E AND S TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

[Zacs Mom]

Her home is about 3 blocks down from the seawall in Galveston. Her late husband built the house and she's lived there for 50 years.

[dogbyte12]

got a link to any more models?

[md2576]

I agree, I see NO getting hit with the Eastern side of the storm like Mississippi did with Katrina. Katrina flattened that area.
I expect Rita will do most of the demolish work needed in NO to clean it up.

[diverteach]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html

[gab1279]

I'm in tears. Oh my god.

We live in Port Arthur. 2 years ago, my parents (and me, in college) moved into a baby blue Victorian with pool, their absolute dream house.

I feel sick. I don't know what to bring/leave. This is so horrible.

Everyone, please, lift those prayers up high....keep 'em going and don't stop.

Thanks to every single FReeper for their unconditional love and support.

[AntiGuv]

*IF ALL THIS WASN/T ENOUGH...GFS80 HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A REBUILDING RIDGE ALL AROUND WEAKENING RITA...SO MUCH THAT RITA COULD ROTATE AROUND PARTS OF N E AND S TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

Oh, wow. This deserves the all-caps..

[Aggie Mama]

We were ready to leave in about an hour...but we're on the west side of town. This is a huge development.

[Zacs Mom]

You and all around you are in my prayers!!

[backhoe]

Just Damn.

[NautiNurse]

KPLC is good, thanks.

[steveegg]

Newest Vortex Data Report - pressure UP to 902 mb -

000
URNT12 KNHC 220942
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/09:12:20Z
B. 24 deg 55 min N
  087 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2245 m
D. NA  kt
E. NA  deg     nm
F. 303 deg 134 kt
G. 228 deg 010 nm
H.         902 mb
I.  14 C/ 3068 m
J.  29 C/ 3057 m
K.  8  C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3  nm
P. AF307 1618A RITA         OB 18
MAX FL WIND 165 KT NE QUAD 05:34:00 Z
STADIUM EFFECT LIT BY MOONLIGHT AND BY LIGHTNING WITHIN EYEWALL

Other significant changes from the previous Vortex 1:58 ago:

- This run from the southwest
- Movement - 7 minutes north, 9 minutes west
- Eyewall 2 nm wider than last time (now 18 nm)

[AntiGuv]

If the remnants of Rita end up rotating around for a few days, that means all the rain that typically gets dumped over a large inland swath will instead get dumped in E. Texas.

[ravinson]

ALL the latest models are now showing the Sabine Pass area, the Tx La border. The strom has started it's turn earlier than anticipated and is now moving WNW. Bad bad news for New Orleans.

I'd rather Hurricane Rita (Cosby) veer right toward NOLA. It can't destroy what's already gone.

Looks like Galveston's in for a big test of its sea walls.

[steveegg]

And the Beaumont evacuation routes.

[Zacs Mom]

Do we know what freepers, in addition to gab1279 (who is in Port Arthur), are now in this new path?

[diverteach]

That and the relief is already established there.