Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[chris1]

OMG!!!!!!!! My tummy hurts looking at that picture. Check out his back pocket!

[oceanview]

wind sheer, colder water, something to steer it to a less populated area - are any of these things in the cards now?

[HoHoeHeaux]

Howlin posted this last night.

http://www.sitesatlas.com/Maps/Maps/TX1.htm

[Prolifeconservative]

Is there a northerly jog in the last couple of loops......Anybody????

[TexAgg_IE]

So, the big announcement comes in about 15 minutes... Will I have to go to class tomorrow here at A&M or not?

[duffthor]

That will give him more brush and stuff to clean when he goes down there. He digs that stuff...back to reality for a little bit...

[cwiz24]

I personally am partial to "unnngh".
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1235991/posts

[TxWxguy]

Rita, over the last 2.5 hours has made a pronounced move toward the northwest. It looks like she has found a weakness in the upper-level ridge to her north and is starting the northward turn earlier than forecast. IMO, folks along the upper Texas coast and SW Louisiana are going to be at much greater risk than people along the mid and lower Texas coast.

[Types_with_Fist]

Is there a northerly jog in the last couple of loops

I sure thought I saw a couple of them but I didn't want to say anything because I've been wrong before. I'm not the only one this time I guess...:-)

[steveegg]

Best to see that a storm will sustain the winds, and thus the category rather than jump the gun for a record or to satisfy a thrill. There is no landfall between now and two hours from now to make a difference.

Amen to that. Also, with evacs still ongoing from the shoreline areas (which would be evacuated for Cat 1-2 hurricanes), and roughly 3 full days until landfall, it makes no sense to jump the gun.

[tcrlaf]

I'm looking at the updated modeling tracks, and they all seem to be converging on the shoreline about 50 miles south of Houston.

This puts Houston/Galveston on the NORTH side if the storm!

How far up the ship channel can surges go??

[Jrabbit]

FEMA presser on.....all reporters want to talk about is Katrina. Shep on Fox is stuck on stupid about communications being inadequate because all equipment is being used in Iraq.....

[Rutles4Ever]

That's what I saw, too. Not enough to say for sure it's path is shifting...

[AggieMom x 3]

Let us know! I may have a house full of Aggie 'evacuees' over the weekend afterall!

[LikeLight]

Yes, northerly jog. And their talking about it on the EasternUS weather forum now too. Could be significant, might not be.

[NautiNurse]

I see a more WNW motion in the past few frames. I believe this was predicted earlier today to occur within 12 hours.

[james_f_hall]

are you sure not a wobble?

[oceanview]

you can buy a satellite phone on the internet in about 5 minutes.

[yatros from flatwater]

...I don't know why the title was changed to Cat 5 when the NHC has not published an update to that effect....

From: Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Updated: 6:38 PM GMT on September 21, 2005

The 1:53 eye report from the hurricane hunters found a 920 mb pressure and flight level winds of 153 knots (176 mph). These numbers plus the satellite intensity estimates would ordinarily support upgrading Rita to a Category 5 hurricane, but NHC is being conservative, and calling Rita a strong Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph surface winds.

There are two hurricane hunter aircraft in Rita this afternoon. The NOAA hurricane hunters found a central pressure of 934 mb at 11:17 am, and the Air Force hurricane hunters found a central pressure of 923 mb at 1:02pm. This incredible drop of 11 mb in 105 minutes is the fastest pressure fall I can ever recall seeing in a hurricane, and exceeds the 10 mb drop in 100 minutes we saw in Hurricane Charley last year. With an eye diameter of 25 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is not likely today, and Rita may intensify to a level close to Katrina's strongest point--902 mb.

[Sprite518]

No way he Shep did not say that???? I like Shep... I hope he does not transform in to a quisling media slime ball..