Hurricane Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 20 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[foreverfree]

No Q storms

No surprise. Q is little used as an initial to begin with. Imagine anticipating using Quincy for a hurricane/TS name every year.

My prayers go out for all who are potentially in Rita's path.

ff

[shield]

Speaking of the navy models...wonder if they'd be anyway to look at past hurricanes landfall and the navy models?

So you're still holding to Wednesday night. David Paul on KHOU said the models are lining up and should be lined up this evening, Doc Frank is directing him so I'm wondering....

Matagorda hit would cause us problems like the O'Connor hit yrs ago did. Matagorda is at least 100 miles ENE of O'Connor.

[Jaded]

Pasadena Independent School District is closing schools for the remainder of the week.

My source is my mother who volunteers at the school. There is nothing on their website just yet. www.pasadenaisd.org.

[AppyPappy]

We had a discussion last night on whether it would be better to hit NO and Gulfport again or hit a different area.

[Fawn]

Rush just said it was upgraded to a Category 2.....

[nwctwx]

She should keep strengthening without much problem till she enters the relatively cooler waters left in the wake of Katrina. These waters have warmed since though, and still can sustain a major hurricane. I would think she will get up to cat 3/4 just west of Cuba.

Cat 4/5 still seems likely at some point during the life cycle.

Climatology and similar storms show that she might weaken before hitting TX, but I wouldn't bet on it. As long as she keeps chugging along, there is little reason to believe she will be below a strong cat3 at landfall... cat 4 is certainly a possibility.

[NautiNurse]

Looks like we're going to get our drop of rain...watch carefully, the little storm band is moving very fast.

[jpsb]

Where is she going, any ideas?

[JFC]

Lubbock, TX, (West Texas) we have no water for miles and miles and miles, then some more miles......

[numberonepal]

Buoys have finally updated online.
Sombrero Key showing 61 kt sustained as of 1300 EDT.

[KSApplePie_two]

I think by late tonight the forward speed will be down to 10-12 mph, pressure around 960-965, making it a weak cat 3 with 111-115 mph winds.

[KSApplePie_two]

I think by late tonight the forward speed will be down to 10-12 mph, pressure around 960-965, making it a weak cat 3 with 111-115 mph winds.

[NautiNurse]

2 PM EDT position...23.9 N... 81.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 978 mb.

[No Blue States]

Thanks. I love the way you break it down.

Im cancelling vacation to Corpus area next week.
I see no way around it now. But its not me I feel sorry for, its our TX coast FReepers.

The sat loop really shows the intense storms folding completely around to form the circle now as the storm itself seems to be growing in size.

[samantha]

Yeah, I am not crazy about that unless they call it alpha 05.

[Jaded]

From the Chronicle:

Texas declared a disaster area ahead of time

AUSTIN - Gov. Rick Perry declared the state a disaster area today in anticipation of Hurricane Rita hitting Texas and personally asked President Bush to approve federal aid to affected counties.

The Good Looking Governor

[Howlin]

She's not messing around, is she?

[KC Burke]

your Trantech forecast track (as linked in your post) is now centered on Biloxi...

[MikefromOhio]

Good Lord that was quick

[nwctwx]

No, she can top 110mph. I was using that as an idea for the Keys area. The greatest heat potential in the Atlantic basin is right around the keys, but the entire GOM can still sustain a Cat 3+.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/05sep/gm_05sep20_0222_mult.png

There is a small swath of 'cooler' water to the west of Cuba, but not cool enough to really do too much. Once the storm is in the central GOM... it has plenty of heat to work with. Water is warm all the way to the TX coast. The only thing that would hurt the storm in that regard would be if she slowed down enough to bring cooler water to the surface.