Hurricane Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 20 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Howlin]

LOL......that is true!

[Dog Gone]

So, the nogaps is not a good model? I've been a little concerned about that one.

NOGAPS isn't a bad model. It just never seems to let ridges move during the forecast period. That's why it's been shooting Rita into Mexico all week while every other model allowed for ridge movement. The model works fine when ridges are perfectly stationary, but that's not what we see in late September in North America for any length of time.

[Howlin]

I order a LOT Of stuff online, as we all do. You cannot beat 5 people having absolutely free shipping for one year for $80.

[TheLion]

She has winds gusting up to a cat 4 and looks to make landfall as a full fledged cat 4....unless something changes.

[shield]

I've been saving all of these models...several have moved north of us those were right over us others were almost over us and have moved quite a bit south. Yep, navy model has it over the King Ranch now...LOL

Doc Frank gave percentages just now: 13% Galveston, 13% Matagorda, 12% LA/TX Border, 11% NO, 11% Brownville. LOL...

[james_f_hall]

Jim Cantore said at the end of that broadcast, majore CAT4 hitting Houston from the South and 600,000 homes gone!

WHAT!!!?

[lonestar]

Is there somebody you can call for help or advice?

Aaron Broussard!!!

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

Good points about things being hurled into that tower - I was thinking more along the lines of an Engineer rating the tower to withstand wind and forgot that you have to add the weird element of objects hitting the tower.

[Lanza]

Hey Howlin. Thanks for that tip on amazon. I can't believe I didn't know about it. I bet I order something from them every week.

[silentknight]

Katrina had winds much higher than 80 knots at landfall. You are misinformed.

[onyx]

I want to see a radar map -- see if the high pressure system that is keeping Rita at bay is moving east. If it is, I think Rita will turn north...

[blam]

"Yeah, I've got 2 whole sheets in the garage, uncut, and 2 more with just little pieces removed. Plus various pieces of 2x4, etc. The accumulation of lumber just feels right!"

LOL. I like to accumulate wood too. My neighbors (about 200 yards away) huge roof blew into my yard during Katrina and I salvaged the wood from it. He still doesn't have a roof. He thought I was a little strange for saving the wood though.

[WoodstockCat]

What was Katrina (in mb) at the same basic latitude 82.3?

at 11 am Rita was 982..it's now 965.

[Howlin]

Where did you hear that?

[silentknight]

The highest winds DID NOT go over New Orleans. Again you are misinformed.

[fishntex]

"I am just stunned at the rate this one has increased. She was a tropical storm only hours ago."

Yep, me too. It will be a cat 3 by the next hurricane hunter report. And it the water is 85 degrees across the entire gulf. I was hoping that since it is moving faster it might not have the time to build but that might be wishful thinking. It could make it worse.

We should get a report overnight. It looks like flight three took off about an hour ago if I read that right.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 191525
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1125 AM EDT MON 19 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM RITA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 20/1700Z A. 20/2100,21/0000,0300Z
B. NOAA3 1118A RITA B. AFXXX 1218A RITA
C. 20/1500Z C. 20/1730Z
D. SFMR MISSION D. 24.0N 81.7W
E. 20/1600Z TO 20/1900Z E. 20/2000Z TO 21/0330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 21/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1318A RITA
C. 21/0230Z
D. 24.2N 84.0W
E. 21/0500Z TO 21/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. G-IV
MISSIONS EVERY 12 HOURS STARTING AT 21/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: MISSION ON HURRICANE PHILIPPE FOR 20/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 19/1100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.......NEGATIVE.
JWP

[silentknight]

There was a ton of wind damage in Mississippi. You obviously do not read the NWS reports.

[Revel]

"Turn out the lights, the party's over."

I don't see how we can take this right now. You and so many others from this area must feel terrible. And I feel bad for you if this hurricane actually hits Texas. But I Have a feeling that it won't just be Texans that will truly suffer through this one. The rest of America will suffer with way more than just there hearts. I think Don McLean caught the moment about 35 years too soon.

[onyx]

I don't have 5 people to share the membership. Only proactive ships to the Cayman's...lol.

[CindyDawg]

Well that's good. I hope she dies down and becomes just a rainmaker. I don't want her but wouldn't wish this on anyone else either but I have major evacuation and preparing problems this time.