Groundbreaking Research Sheds Light On Ancient Mystery (Easter Island)

Rochester Instityute Of Technology ^ | 8-31-2005 | Will Dube

[blam]

Release Date: Aug. 31, 2005
Contact: Will Dube
(585) 475-4954 or wjduns@rit.edu

Groundbreaking Research Sheds Light on Ancient Mystery

RIT researcher creates new population model to help predict and prevent societal collapse

A researcher at Rochester Institute of Technology is unraveling a mystery surrounding Easter Island. William Basener, assistant professor of mathematics, has created the first mathematical formula to accurately model the island’s monumental societal collapse.

Between 1200 and 1500 A.D., the small, remote island, 2,000 miles off the coast of Chile, was inhabited by over 10,000 people and had a relatively sophisticated and technologically advanced society. During this time, inhabitants used large boats for fishing and navigation, constructed numerous buildings and built many of the large statues, known as Tiki Gods, for which the island is now best known. However, by the late 18th century, when European explorers first discovered the island, the population had dropped to 2,000 and islanders were living in near primitive conditions, with almost all elements of the previous society completely wiped out.

“The reasons behind the Easter Island population crash are complex but do stem from the fact that the inhabitants eventually ran out of finite resources, including food and building materials, causing a massive famine and the collapse of their society,” Basener says. “Unfortunately, none of the current mathematical models used to study population development predict this sort of growth and quick decay in human communities.”

Population scientists use differential equation models to mimic the development of a society and predict how that population will change over time. Since incidents like Easter Island do not follow the normal progression of most societies, entirely new equations were needed to model the outcome. Computer simulations using Basener’s formula predict values very close to the actual archeological findings on Easter Island. His team’s results were recently published in SIAM Journal of Applied Math.

Basener will next use his formula to analyze the collapse of the Mayan and Viking populations. He also hopes to modify his work to predict population changes in modern day societies.

“It is my hope this research can be used to create a better understanding of past societies,” Basener adds. “It will also eventually help scientists and governments develop better population management skills to avert future famines and population collapses.”

Basener’s research was done in collaboration with David Ross, visiting professor of mathematics at the University of Virginia, mathematicians Bernie Brooks, Mike Radin and Tamas Wiandt and a group of RIT mathematics students.

[woofie]

Healthcare?

[hispanarepublicana]

Red Tide sounds like a very realistic and reasonable theory.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Blam, although I regard this study as just another Malthusian wet-dream. Heyerdahl took an anthropological approach and followed that with an archaeological one. Of course, all of that is pooh-poohed by the most recent excavator. Heyerdahl's "Aku-Aku" tells the story as it was known in the 1950s.

One of the frustrations is, a Spanish expedition set out to find Easter Island based on information gathered from mainlanders (and that should make one wonder, how did they know if there was no going to and fro?) but the titular head of the expedition couldn't get the captain of the vessel to follow the directions given, as the captain believed they would sail off into nowhere and die horribly. Had they not diverged, odds are they would have arrived on Easter Island while the statues were still being built.

To all -- please ping me to other topics which are appropriate for the GGG list. Thanks.

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[Peace Is Coming]

lol

[timestax]

Easter Island went straight to hell after they found out how to open the hatch leading straight down into the Lost Well of Doom.

how do you know of these things?

[SunkenCiv]

The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850 by Brian M. Fagan Paperback	Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Nino and the Fate of Civilizations by Brian M. Fagan	The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization by Brian M. Fagan

[Travis McGee]

Watch "Lost" wednesday night, and we'll both find out.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Imagine a society almost wiped out because they were too proud to eat sushi.

[dsc]

"He lived on the coconuts!"

Must have had *really* strong hands.

[dsc]

Any chance of getting a (much) larger version of that cover graphic?

[shuckmaster]

Have you read any of the Brian M. Fagan books? Are they any good? Which one would you recommend first?

[spanalot]

I too was thinking of that and assumed he had a knife or such - but then how to explain ancient coconut tree mariners?

Is it possible that the tree roots would have dislodged soil and rock - which could feasibly be used to (eventually) scrape away the husk?

[dsc]

I'd hate to be tasked with not dropping a rock for days and days while clinging to a palm tree.

[4CJ]

“The reasons behind the Easter Island population crash are complex but do stem from the fact that the inhabitants eventually ran out of finite resources, including food and building materials, causing a massive famine and the collapse of their society,” Basener says. “Unfortunately, none of the current mathematical models used to study population development predict this sort of growth and quick decay in human communities.”

They probably just became infested with Dims.

[Hegemony Cricket]

Hari Seldon would be (will have been?) proud.

[scouse]

famine and the collapse of their society,”

This, I believe, led to cannibalism.

[Yellow Rose of Texas]

During this time, inhabitants used large boats for fishing and navigation, constructed numerous buildings and built many of the large statues, known as Tiki Gods, for which the island is now best known.

I know the Tiki Gods are still there, and buildings leave traces, but how do they know about the large boats, and were the boats used to get folks off the island during hard times?

[Bratch]

Best I can do this morning.

[dsc]

Looks like the Internet demons are possessing your snap.