Posted on 09/19/2005 12:34:29 AM PDT by topher
Yeah, that looks a lot better. The poor b******* in Brownsville would get it in the shorts again, but that's the about the best place for the thing to go. There's not much there, as you say.
Word has a sentence option for upper/lower case. I would think other programs might, as well.
Thank you for curing the upper-case-itis.
Oh, I already have a good supply. I was thinking of trade goods and ally support.
Remember the old Civil Defense philosophy (that those militias in NO and MS clearly learned well) - fall back, regroup, ally, organize, advance. If nothing else, NO should have made it clear to everyone that it really *can* happen in any major city, anywhere, at any time.
I came to that conclusion when I watched folks scrounging for wood in Serajevo to keep warm (and bury their dead) on tv.
I can imagine a certain amount of nastiness can happen anywhere in the snow belt if the power goes out for more than a few days in winter.
Prepare for the worst. Pray for the best.
A 50% chance of being Cat 3 or greater in then next 72 hours. At that point in time Rita would be in the middle of the Gulf and still have a day or two to strengthen. We should hope that she doesn't become an annular hurricane (self sustaining) like Katrina. If that's the case, Rita could go to Cat 5 before landfall.
As others have observed, the veneer of civilization is thin.
The computer models for tropical cyclones are more accurate when the storm is a hurricane vice a tropical depression or a tropical storm. Always expect a lot of error with the earliest forecasts (like with Katrina). But as the storm develops there is less uncertainty and the different models tend to converge.
72 days to go in the season, another storm.
IT'S BUSH'S FAULT! :)
Thanks for bringing it up but this map from Accuweather seems rather worthless. It puts the anywhere along a path some 700+ miles from around Galvaston to near Veracruz!
We're far too many days out to know anything more usefully definitive. The models are all over the place.
The mid level ridge that is along the gulf coast should keep the storm south of the oil rigs off Louisiana's coast. It's close enough to pay attention to but the likelyhood is that the storm will stay south of the main oil platforms in the gulf. Platforms off the central texas coast would have to be shut down though.
the new reconaissance aircraft in the system at 07z found that the pressure had fallen to 999 mb...and first satellite images after the eclipse show that convection is now wrapping around to the northwest of the center and has taken a more banded appearance. A dropsonde in the northwest quadrant had 44 kt at the surface...with flight level winds in this quadrant of 57 kt. The northeast quadrant has not yet been sampled...and I presume that higher winds will be found there during the next hour or so. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.
The last two aircraft fixes indicate an almost due west motion...but with all the center reformations that have occurred it is difficult to ascertain a representative motion. My best judgement is 280/8. Rita has already passed the longitude of the break in the subtropical ridge...and will come under increasing pressure to have the track nudge to the left. Furthermore...now that the convection is becoming a little more symmetric...there should be less likelihood of additional northward reformations of the center. Model guidance adjusted to the current location is very tightly clustered on a path through the Florida Straits south of Key West...and I have adjusted the official forecast slightly south of the previous advisory. There has been a fairly significant shift in the guidance late in the forecast period...with the global models abruptly weakening the mid-level high over the western Gulf and allowing Rita to begin a sharper recurvature track. While I have adjusted the 120-hr point about 120 nm north of the previous advisory...I am still well to the left of most of the 120-hr guidance.
Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level low in the northwest Caribbean is shifting eastward...and as it does so the southerly shear over Rita will continue to decrease. This should allow for a faster development rate. The official forecast is very close to the SHIPS guidance.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 19/0900z 22.7n 74.3w 50 kt 12hr VT 19/1800z 23.1n 76.0w 60 kt 24hr VT 20/0600z 23.6n 78.5w 70 kt 36hr VT 20/1800z 24.0n 81.2w 80 kt 48hr VT 21/0600z 24.2n 84.0w 90 kt 72hr VT 22/0600z 24.5n 88.5w 100 kt 96hr VT 23/0600z 25.5n 92.5w 100 kt 120hr VT 24/0600z 27.5n 96.0w 95 kt
As posted on Rita live thread:
Rita appears to be taking a similar track to Katrina. Not that I wish bad on anyone, but I hope it continues west and hits in Mexico. We in Florida and the Gulf Coast have had more than enough of our share of hurricanes in the past two years. Somebody else's turn.
There was already an ongoing Rita thread that this should have been posted to:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1486960/posts
Let's keep this thread going as a high graphics thread.
But we're out of the loop for this one, aren't we?
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