Tropical Storm Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[brytlea]

I thought Fess Parker was sooo cute! Of course I thought Gentle Ben and Flipper were pretty cute too.....
susie

[shield]

Most likely this hurricane will be further north. How far is the question...we'll know in the next couple of days...let's pray for it to hit THE KING RANCH...LOL...don't I always say that...

[Doe Eyes]

I hope he has the School Buses ready for evacuation.

[PeteB570]

OK, maybe 1995 was the year they were talking about what would happen if they made it all the way through.

Thanks.

[cubreporter]

This one doesn't seem to be too worrisome for us.



Never, never, never say that. Look what happened in NOLA, Mississippi and Alabama. Never allow yourself to be lulled into thinking it is safe. I live in Colorado and I worry about everyone in the hurricane areas. They can loop around and over and under. We used to live in Panama City Florida (military) and we were issued hurricane maps and it was incredible to see the paths they took and how they twisted and turned and went out and came back. They are too unpredictable so don't mess with Mother Nature. Your life and that of your family is worth more than any material thing. I know you know that but...just hate to see people get complacent. All hurricanes should be worriesome. :) Stay safe!!!

[italianquaker]

i know was on us 1 and hour ago pretty crowded northbound

[shield]

Are you a Houstonian? Doubt they'd be any reason to evac Houston. This is a big city, much bigger than N.O.'s and we're not below sea level. Big difference than N.O.'s. Our shelters would be for coastal evacuees.

[SE Mom]

BUT- do any of you remember Sea Hunt?

Lovely Rita...

[Clara Lou]

I thought Fess Parker was cute, too. "Daniel Boone was a man...yes a BIG man...."

[Clara Lou]

Barely...I remember Sea Hunt. Lloyd Bridges was cute.

[tiredoflaundry]

*mumbles*

[Tennessee_Bob]

Someone better set down the ground rules of who is in charge in New Orleans right now.

Mayor Nagin sent me an e-mail asking if I wanted the job. I'm going to pass on it - you interested??

[Dog Gone]

The current forecast track puts it almost precisely at King Ranch, perhaps just a little south. That is the ideal place for it to hit the Texas coastline if it is to hit Texas at all.

It would mess up some deer stands, cattle pens, a few ranch houses, and not much more.

But experience tells us that we have a pretty good idea of where Rita will be two days from now, and barely a clue as to where she'll be next weekend.

Somewhere between Lafayette, LA and northern Mexico, in all likelihood.

That's too big of a margin of error for anyone to panic yet.

On the other hand, it couldn't hurt to make sure that you have enough canned food, batteries, and bottled water on hand early in the week.

I live well past the limits of a Cat 5 storm surge, but I took the fury of a Cat 3 storm once, and that's the last time I'm gonna do that.

[brytlea]

Oh, gosh, yes I actually do remember Sea Hunt (it's all I really remember Lloyd Bridges doing). I remember that when the sub was tilting, they always run uphill! Guess that's why I am so bad at physics today!
susie

[mware]

LOL, no thanks I suspect New Orleans is one hot potato right now.

[mcshot]

But how bout Sky King?

mc:.))

[Howlin]

I left on Friday right after Ophelia and went to the beach.

It appears I am WAY behind. What happened to P and Q?

[Types_with_Fist]

No. Don't remember that one. Am I younger than you?...:-)

[NautiNurse]

Philippe is behind Rita, and much less likely a thread to the U.S. There is never a Q storm.

[Strategerist]

The current forecast track puts it almost precisely at King Ranch, perhaps just a little south.

A simple 5 day forecast point is one thing in terms of wild inaccuracy but simply doing a straight line extrapolation of the 4 to 5 day movement to pick a specific county is even more misleading.

If it does indeed curve as indicated it would likely continue curving, thus putting the system in north of Corpus Christi.

A variety of Globals don't have a northward curve at all and still hit Mexico.

I'm somewhat dubious of that much ridging over the GOM holding for 5 days, in late September.

However, given the complete model consensus on the track through 3 days I think any landfall on the Gulf Coast east of Texas can be completely and utterly written off.