[Strategerist]

The current forecast track puts it almost precisely at King Ranch, perhaps just a little south.

A simple 5 day forecast point is one thing in terms of wild inaccuracy but simply doing a straight line extrapolation of the 4 to 5 day movement to pick a specific county is even more misleading.

If it does indeed curve as indicated it would likely continue curving, thus putting the system in north of Corpus Christi.

A variety of Globals don't have a northward curve at all and still hit Mexico.

I'm somewhat dubious of that much ridging over the GOM holding for 5 days, in late September.

However, given the complete model consensus on the track through 3 days I think any landfall on the Gulf Coast east of Texas can be completely and utterly written off.

[Dog Gone]

I tend to agree, although the NHC still has western Louisiana within the probability cone, although at the edges it should be considered a "possibility" cone.

This one definitely has my attention because I'm located on the northward line of the projected path.

But it's way too early to hit the panic button. A landfall at Brownsville will only mean an unusual eastern breeze in Houston. Not really noticeable.